Politics

Trump: Only terrorist sympathisers fear US strikes in Nigeria —Ex-Army commander, Henry Ayoola

Published

9 months ago

November 9, 2025

Advocate News Nigeria

Major General Henry Ayoola (rtd)

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A former Commander of the Special Task Force, Operation Safe Haven, Maj. Gen. Henry Ayoola (retd.), speaks with The Punch on the security implications of United States President Donald Trump’s threat to deploy military forces to Nigeria over the alleged genocide against Christians

Nigeria and the United States have been entangled in a diplomatic row following the US President Donald Trump’s threat to deploy military forces to the country over alleged genocide against Christians. What is your assessment of this development?

I have discovered that many people talking about this issue don’t even know about the existence of the United States Commission on International Religious Freedom. That’s a body under the US Department of State, established in 1998, based on what is called the International Religious Freedom Act. The act is based on internationally accepted fundamental freedoms and human rights on religion. Number one is Article 18 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, which talks about the rights of thought, conscience, and religion, including the right to change one’s religion and to demonstrate and interact with others on the premise of that religion without any hindrance. It is that same Article 18 that is imported verbatim into our Constitution as Section 38. So, we need to know that America didn’t just form something new.

The second international instrument is the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, which also talks about religious freedoms and rights similar to those in the Universal Declaration. Don’t forget that the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, along with the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights and the International Covenant on Economic, Social, and Cultural Rights, are collectively referred to as the International Bill of Rights. These are internationally accepted instruments that determine the human rights standards many nations adopt.

Human rights laws, by the way, are international laws. Many nations that are parties to those treaties respect them. So, it was simply a domestic amplification of these international laws that led America to establish the International Religious Freedom Act in 1998, and the United States Commission on International Religious Freedom.

What they do is publish a report every year—an annual report on the state of religious practices, abuses, and violations in every nation of the world. Nigeria had been recommended to be designated as a “Country of Particular Concern” since 2009, when Boko Haram came onto the scene. Since then, Nigeria has consistently been listed every year in the report as a Country of Particular Concern.

What does that mean?

Under the International Religious Freedom Act of America, there are three designations given to nations based on where they fall on the scale of violation of human rights regarding religious freedom. Nigeria has always been on that list. CPC are those that engage in what the Act describes as “severe violations” of religious rights. These are nations where there are systematic, continuous, and egregious violations of religious rights, particularly where the government is deemed not to be doing enough to stop those violations. Those are the ones designated as CPC.

The second category is simply “severe violation,” but still a violation of religious rights. Those are usually categorised as Special Watch List. In fact, in this year’s report, countries recommended for designation as CPC were 16. Nigeria is actually the ninth out of the 16, so it’s not peculiar to Nigeria. There are several others. China itself is among the nations recommended as CPC.

Now, countries on the SWL this year were just 12. And then, of course, there is the third category, which they call Entities of Particular Concern. These are non-state actors that also violate religious freedom and rights. Interestingly, out of the seven recommended this year, three of them operate in Nigeria and have been violating religious rights. Boko Haram is number one. The Islamic State for West African Province is number two, and recently, we have a new emerging one, the Jamaat Nasir al-Islam Wal Muslimin.

So, you can imagine, if out of the seven globally recommended, three are in Nigeria. This is the state of things people have to understand. But when I hear people say it’s not only Christians who are being killed, that Muslims are also victims, it comes across as not only a simplistic but hasty and outrightly puerile argument. Are you saying Muslims’ lives are not important? All lives matter, whether they are Muslims, Christians, traditionalists, Hausa or whatever category they belong to.

If we understand that the commonality and dignity of humanity must be held sacrosanct universally, then if it’s violated in one place, it’s violated in all places. If it’s violated in one person, it’s violated in all of us. If we understand it that way, the idea of differentiating between Christian and Muslim lives won’t surface.

For me, the issue should be that no life should be lost in the first place. This whole thing, as I see it, is just unveiling the level of logic that our elite can bring to the fore when things like this happen. Instead of focusing on the facts and figures and the real issues, we have been delving into the realm of sentiments and parochial arguments that should not even come.

Trump directed the US Department of War to prepare for possible action in Nigeria if the killings persist. What does that mean?

This is not the first time Nigeria has been designated as a CPC. Like I said, from 2009 till date, every annual report of the USCIRF has always recommended Nigeria to be designated as a CPC. The first time it was actually done was in 2020 by this same President Trump. He was the first person who responded to that recommendation and officially designated Nigeria as a CPC. But in 2021, when President Joe Biden came in, he delisted Nigeria from that designation. Interestingly, Nigeria was still recommended as a CPC on November 17, 2021. After President Biden removed us from the list, the USCIRF wrote a petition against that decision. They protested vehemently, saying their recommendation was ignored and the government did the opposite.

So, being designated a CPC is not a death sentence. It is not a ground for America to attack any nation. Several countries have been designated CPC in the past. How many people even knew that happened in 2020? If we were not attacked then, what makes anyone think we will now be attacked simply because we are designated CPC again? No.

Are you saying the CPC designation means nothing serious?

No. What has actually happened is that some Americans, including Trump, felt more agitated, knowing that this has happened before and that the narrative has not changed. Perhaps, they believe several efforts have been made by the current government, but the situation still persists. But we cannot put any of this blame on the current government. We know that since they came in, they have made very honest, sincere, and painstaking efforts to stop this evil. We also know it is not an easy thing. It is a multi-pronged, multi-faceted, and multi-dimensional evil. You can never be sure who is on which side. It’s like fighting a fratricidal war between Nigerians and Nigerians, as it were, and so it is very difficult for the government to be sure where some of its own members stand.

If you remember, President Jonathan once cried out that some members of his cabinet were also supporting Boko Haram. Once you have a problem like that, the effort of the government is only as good as the people handling those efforts. We are talking about the application of blasphemy laws against people who are not Muslims. Let’s not even go into those things because, as far as I’m concerned, all lives matter.

There are other categories of Nigerians who have been suffering differential manipulation and marginalisation, and all kinds of treatment that fall under the definition of genocide as described by the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide, 1948. That’s another international instrument that defines what genocide is. It says when all of these actions are directed against national, ethnical, racial, or religious groups, then it is genocide.

Do you think Trump is serious about his threat?

I don’t want to undermine what President Trump has said. I mean, it’s America that is speaking. We know Trump’s style is quite peculiar and unique. But we also know what America stands for. At the end of October 2020, America entered both Niger and Nigeria to rescue an American. That has happened before, it’s a precedence. It tells you that it’s possible. So, I’m not discounting the fact that America has what it takes, the audacity and the military power, to do what they say they will do. But as much as that is a credible threat, it is still just a threat.

The truth is that America cannot, on the grounds of Nigeria being designated a CPC, or even with the escalated label of genocide against Christians, attack Nigeria. I mean, who would they attack now? If their aim is to protect the lives of Christians, then it’s not a matter of attacking Nigeria. It’s a matter of how they can help the Nigerian government and the security forces to wipe out this insurgency, terrorism, and banditry once and for all. And I think it’s something we should embrace.

But The New York Times published a report that the United States military has drawn up contingency plans for potential action plan in Nigeria…

When the US President gives that kind of directive, under the American system, it’s what you call a National Security Presidential Anticipatory Directive. When the President, as Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, issues such a directive, it is as real and valid as an official order. It means the military could be given just 24 hours’ notice to move, so they must prepare as if the operation would happen the next day. But that’s not new. It’s standard procedure.

Once such an alarm is raised, once that anticipatory directive is issued, there are corresponding Standard Operating Procedures that immediately follow. That’s how it works anywhere in the world. But I can tell you this confidently, America is not going to attack Nigeria.

Don’t forget that Trump said his aim is to protect Christian lives. So how does he protect Christian lands by attacking the same people living there? It’s a matter of understanding the language of deterrence, not aggression.

The report alleged that the U.S. military was preparing airstrikes on militant targets deep inside northern Nigeria, including insurgent camps, convoys, and vehicles. Shouldn’t that be a cause for concern?

Yes, but I just told you what happened on October 30, 2020, when America entered both Niger and Nigeria to rescue an American hostage. Did you know when that operation happened? Was any Nigerian killed? So, why are we suddenly worried about this one? Those who are overly alarmed now, perhaps some of them are sympathisers or supporters of these terror groups.

They’re not worried about the innocent Nigerians being killed by these groups; instead, they’re worried about the militants. And that’s the tragedy of our national and international discourse. It really pisses me off. We keep focusing on the supposed victims, while ignoring who is doing the killing. It’s as if those ones are sacred cows that must never be touched. Now that someone wants to help us to deal with them, people are crying foul. What a nation!

The Special Adviser to President Bola Tinubu on Policy Communication, Daniel Bwala, said the US can’t invade Nigeria without the Nigerian President’s approval. How true is that?

Yes, of course. In fact, when that operation happened at the end of October 2020, the Federal Government actually gave a nod for it. The Nigerian Armed Forces cooperated fully with the US military. It wasn’t something that happened unilaterally. And did we not do something similar under President Jonathan? It was a private military contractor engaged then. That was why the 2015 election was able to hold in the North-East. Most of the credit the Buhari administration later claimed for clearing insurgents in the region actually belonged to the Jonathan era.

If private military contractors could achieve that much, how many non-insurgent or non-terrorist lives were lost? You can’t make an omelet without breaking eggs. Even in the military cycle, there are what we call self-inflicted injuries or blue-on-blue—that’s friendly fire. It happens. So, the real question is: what do we trade off because we have to give something in exchange.

As we speak, gangs, terrorists, and bandits have practically overrun several parts of this nation. So, between resolving that once and for all, even if it involves a few collateral damages and unintended consequences, and allowing this insecurity to continue endlessly, which is the better option for us? We have to decide.

Does Nigeria need US military intervention to address its terrorism challenges?

If we’ve been battling this for 16 years, do we still need anyone to tell us that external help would be beneficial? Do we need anyone to remind us that when those private military contractors came from South Africa, they achieved remarkable results in just a short time? It’s not a big deal to get military cooperation from another country. Even the most advanced nations do it. Nobody is an island. As strong as America itself is, there are certain areas of military technology, operations, strategy, and tactics where they cooperate with other nations. Israel, for instance, is very strong in some areas and works closely with the United States on many fronts: military strategy, operations, tactics, and technology. Even among European nations within NATO, there’s constant collaboration and knowledge exchange. Nobody knows it all. It doesn’t detract from our national pride to have military cooperation with another nation that can supply what we don’t yet have.

Take the 2020 rescue of Philip Walton on October 30, for example. Look at the kind of weapons and technology America deployed for that mission. Nigeria doesn’t have that capacity. The US has strategic satellites that can pinpoint exact locations. That’s how they tracked the kidnappers’ phone calls, monitored their movements, and located where Walton was being held. Their aircraft landed several kilometres away to avoid detection and then advanced on foot, undetected, to rescue him. We don’t have that yet. America is far more technologically advanced. Rome wasn’t built in a day, we’re still developing. Even developed nations collaborate and share research on military capabilities, so what’s the big deal if we do the same

If we want to play smart about this, we should thank God that our situation has attracted international, especially American, attention, and that they’re even willing to help us. Who doesn’t want insurgency, terrorism, and banditry to end in Nigeria? But we must be realistic; it won’t come at zero cost.

How do you mean?

America is not Father Christmas. They won’t help us out of pure love. Every nation acts based on its national interest. Look at our own history: we went to Liberia, Sierra Leone, and other countries without any follow-up strategy to benefit from the peace we helped restore. Our businessmen didn’t even go in to take advantage of the openings we created. America doesn’t operate like that. So, they have something to gain. It’s not because they suddenly love Christians so much, or Africans so much. We all know the same President Trump and what he said about Africans during his first tenure, and even in this one. It’s not as if he’s suddenly fallen in love with us.

Former Chief of Army Staff and former Minister of Interior, Lt. Gen. (retd) Abdulrahman Dambazau, on Tuesday, suggested that the United States might be using these claims as a pretext to establish a military base in Nigeria. How true is that?

There’s a plethora of options and possibilities behind why America is doing what it’s doing. But if we’re going to play smart as a nation, we must understand that we can’t stop them from having their own motives or interests. What matters most is this: do we like the current state of security in Nigeria? Do we want it to continue?

We’ve been trying the same approach since 2009, and we’re still here. One of our former Chiefs of Army Staff once told the National Assembly, after he retired, that the war against terrorism in the North-East wouldn’t be won even in the next 20 years. Now, that’s someone who was in charge of the fight. Doesn’t that tell you something? It means even our best efforts will take a long time to yield results. So, if we find external help that can expedite the process, should we not at least weigh that option? Let’s put all options on the table, do a proper strategic analysis; look at what we’ll gain and what we’ll lose. It’s a trade-off. You win some, you lose some. That’s how the world works. Nobody wins all.

PROMISES DELIVERED

Politics

Why I decided to work with Obi — Kwankwaso

Published

10 hours ago

August 20, 2026

Advocate News Nigeria

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Former Kano State Governor, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, has explained that his decision to work with former Anambra State Governor, Peter Obi, on the 2027 presidential ticket was driven by the need to provide Nigerians with competent and accountable leadership.

Kwankwaso, in a message to Nigerians on the commencement of the 2027 presidential campaign, said the country was at a critical crossroads, citing rising living costs, unemployment, insecurity and inadequate investment in education, healthcare and infrastructure.

He said millions of Nigerians, particularly young people, were struggling to find meaningful employment, while businesses were facing high operating costs and an uncertain economic environment.

According to him, insecurity has also continued to threaten communities, with terrorism, banditry and kidnapping resulting in the loss of lives, homes and livelihoods.

“Our farmers need security to return to their farms, our children need safe schools, and every Nigerian deserves to live without fear,” he said.

Kwankwaso said the challenges confronting the country were serious but insisted that Nigeria had the human and material resources required to build a prosperous and secure nation.

He said what was needed was leadership with “competence, courage and commitment” to place the interests of Nigerians above personal considerations.

Explaining his decision to partner with Obi, Kwankwaso said: “This is why I have chosen to work with His Excellency, Peter Obi, on the Obi-Kwankwaso ticket.

“Our partnership is not about region, religion or personal ambition. It is about Nigeria.”

He said the partnership was founded on the belief in a Nigeria where government serves the people, hard work is rewarded, young Nigerians can build successful futures in the country and every citizen has a fair opportunity to prosper.

Kwankwaso called on young people, women, workers, farmers, entrepreneurs and professionals to join the political movement, urging Nigerians to move beyond divisive politics and focus on issues affecting their daily lives.

He also urged voters to demand accountability, competence and measurable results from public office holders.

“The 2027 election presents Nigerians with an opportunity to choose a new direction,” he said.

Kwankwaso appealed to Nigerians to support the Obi-Kwankwaso ticket and candidates of the NDC, while urging supporters to conduct their campaigns peacefully and responsibly.

“Let us campaign peacefully, responsibly and with the national interest at heart. “Together, we can build a stronger nation and Nigeria will be OK,” he said.

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News

BREAKING: INEC declares Adeleke winner of Osun gov election

Published

5 days ago

August 16, 2026

Advocate News Nigeria

photo: Osun State Governor, Ademola Adeleke

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Osun State Governor, Ademola Adeleke, was on Sunday declared elected, having won 19 out of the 30 local government areas in the governorship election held across the state on Saturday.

The State Returning Officer, the Vice-Chancellor of the Federal University, Oye Ekiti, Prof Joshua Ogunwole, declared the result of the poll at about 7:24 am on Sunday.

Adeleke polled a total of 511067 votes to emerge victorious in the contest.

Ogunwole subsequently returned the governor to office for another term.

The incumbent Osun governor, who contested the poll on the platform of the Accord, defeated his closest challenger, Bola Oyebamiji of the All Progressives Congress, who won in 11 LG areas of the state.

While Adeleke won in Ede North, Ede South, Ejigbo, Iwo, Egbedore, Ife North, Ife East, Ife Central, Oriade, Ifelodun, Orolu, Ayedaade, Ayedire, Odo Otin, Boluwaduro, Ilesa West, Ifedayo, Osogbo and Ayedire local government areas.

Oyebamiji, however, won in Irewole, Isokan, Olorunda, Atakumosa East, Atakumosa West, Ilesa East, Boripe, Irepodun and Obokun local government areas.

Declaring the results, Ogunwole said, “Accredited voters, 1010684, total votes received by political parties, A, 511067, AA, 2308, AAC, 1458, ADC, 17180, ADP, 2946, APC, 444815, APGA, 1475, APM, 234, APP, 114, BP, 111, NNPP, 118, PRP, 83, SDP, 155, YPP, 534, ZLP, 2482, total valid votes, 985079, rejected votes, 207, total vote cast, 1,005,800.”

After agents of the political parties have signed the results of the election, the Returning Officer declared Adeleke of the Accord as the winner of the poll.

“That Ademola Nurudeen-Jackson Adeleke having satisfied the requirements of the law is hereby declare the winner of the August 15 Governorship election and returned elected,” Ogunwole said.

The candidate of the African Democratic Congress in the poll, Najeem Salaam, came third in the poll.

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Politics

Osun: The mourning after By Festus Adedayo

Published

5 days ago

August 16, 2026

Advocate News Nigeria

Re-elected Osun Gov Adeleke and President Bola Tinubu

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Speaking after an infrastructure inspection, Governor Ademola Adeleke openly backed President Bola Tinubu’s 2027 re-election bid. He warmly referredto him as “our own son, father and leader.” He went further to declare: “I am the governor of the ancestral birthplace of Mr President. How can I have my own in the saddle and think twice before embracing him?” Yet, even as those words echoed, in the election that held yesterday in Osun State, Governor Adeleke’s fate and that of Osun State were being systematically framed, for better or worse.

As we speak, spanning from Friday through the entire weekend, at least 25 states of the federation were left without a commissioner of police. They were all deployed to Osun State to do the president’s bidding. Reports confirmed that 32 Commissioners, 36 Deputy Commissioners, and 51 Assistant Commissioners descended upon a state with a mere 1,906,390 eligible voters. This was supplemented by an intimidating machinery of political heavyweights —the Senate President, ministers, governors, and presidential aides —acting as the semiotics of a Villa muscle-flexing designed to dismantle the state-level opposition.

That was the raw execution of federal might: thirty-five thousand police personnel and ten thousand Civil Defence officers holding vigil, alongside heavily armed soldiers who walked the state with infidel jackboots feet. Why inflict such immense dread upon a people if you are genuinely beloved? As Yoruba elders sagely observe, one only gazes blankly at the ceiling when the wisdom of Ifa divination appears entirely foreign —Àìgbọ’fá l’à ń wò’kè, Ifá kan ò sì ní párá.

As yesterday’s election unfolded, acuriously tragic political chemistry emerged between Tinubu and Adeleke. The tango between the duo strongly evokes the poignant caution against filicide in Chinua Achebe’s Things Fall Apart: “That boy calls you father; do not bear a hand in his death.” This grave warning was delivered by Ogbuefi Ezeudu, the oldest man in Umuofia, whose age cascaded like lies swimming on a slovenly head. A deeply revered elder and skilled warrior, Ezeudu’s voice was welded into Umuofia’s wisdom and tradition. His counsel concerned Ikemefuna, Okonkwo’s doomed foster child, who had lived in his household for three years. Between this period, Okonkwo and Ikemefuna developed a deep, quasi-parental bond with a warm brotherhood emerging between Ikemefuna and Nwoye, Okonkwo’s son.

Much like Okonkwo, who struggled with a desperate fear of being deemed weak or cowardly, Tinubu seemed gripped by an anxiety to prove his political virility in his ancestral home state of Osun — where his umbilical cord lies buried. He was apparently unwilling to confront failure in the battle to be a bearer of his cousin,Gboyega Oyetola’s political battle coffin. Ezeudu’s warning carried profound moral and spiritual weight: participating in the murder of someone who calls you “father” violates fundamental humanity, regardless of political expediency or clan custom. Yet, Okonkwo disregarded the elder’s counsel. He joined the execution party, and when a blow struck Ikemefuna and the terrified boy ran toward him crying, “My father, they have killed me!”, Okonkwo dealt the fatal final stroke.Replace Okonkwo with Tinubu and Ikemefuna with Adeleke. You will then discover that, what Tinubu did yesterday to an Adeleke who called him the father of Osun State was filicide.

A far greater tragedy awaited Okonkwo at Ezeudu’s funeral. As guns and cannons boomed, sending billowing fire into the sky and machetes clattered in a frenzy, Okonkwo’s gun unexpectedly exploded. A piece of shrapnel flew out, penetrating the heart of Ezeudu’s sixteen-year-old son and killing him instantly. Total chaos erupted. Okonkwo stood pensive, looking down as if counting his toes, fully aware of the grave consequences of killing the young boy. Tragedy wears a single, unforgiving colour. Killing a clansman, even accidentally, was an unpardonable offence against Ala, the earth goddess. Okonkwo knew the implication of murder in Umuofia: He had to go into a seven-year exile in Mbanta, his mother’s clan.

With what we saw in Osun, elections in Nigeria have increasingly transformed into the heavy beat of the Gbedu drum. It is characterized by a mournful, ululating cadence. When it is sounded as it was in Osun, a downcast populace asks in desperation: what song can be sung to this strange drumming? The Gbedu is no ordinary instrument; it is a sacred, massive drum symbolizing royal authority, sovereign power, and deep ancestral communion. Historically, it remains taboo for non-initiates to strike the Gbedu, as its resonant vibrations communicate directly with deities during coronations. Thus, when non-initiates commandeer this sacred beat, appalled Yoruba ask: “Orin wo laa ko si gbedu yi?”— What song do we sing to such a strange, ominous rhythm?

The Osun Gbedu comes with an air of foreboding of evil. William Shakespeare’s Brutus smelled the evil early enough. In his famous metaphor, wherein he said, “It is the bright day that brings forth the adder, and that craves wary walking,” Brutus saw hidden danger and tyranny. Just like the clairvoyant could see ahead of yesterday’s Osun election. Whatever is its outcome, the election will be a harvest of the wild oats we sowed in the last couple of months. This comprises the president’s frightening “all is fair in politics” Freudian slip; the 29 people killed in 73 political violence incidents in Osun; the brutally injured victims of the political war; the acerbic rhetoric and the do-or-die politics that have all become the hallmark of Nigeria’s electoral life.

The Brutus metaphor was made while he restlessly paced his orchard. Assassinating Julius Caesar was by then in the offing. Tension was as thick in the sky as the biblical wall of Jericho. Like Brutus, Nigeria is restlessly pacing the orchard of sanity. Already, the symphony filtering out of Osun is bad news for democracy. Blood and gangsterism have been on the menu since the election process started. Just as Julius Caesar was bad news to the conspirators who eventually stabbed him to death. The optics of an adder, the venomous snake, coming out in the day are however good news to those who cannot compete in a free and fair electoral atmosphere. They seem to have already had the day with the attempt to subvert the wishes of the people. As the sunny, prosperous times — the bright day — make venomous snakes — the adder — come out in the open, the Osun election is that venomous snake that is already out in the open and the die is cast. Even if the incumbent wins, Osun has foretold the January and February 2027 elections. As it seems, even those who didn’t purchase — apologies to this recourse to an old Yoruba lingo — will have to pay.

Osun and Nigeria find themselves jointly marking an anniversary of political anarchy, falling victim to George Santayana’s famous warning that “those who fail to learn from history are condemned to repeat it.” Exactly 43 years ago, the very anarchy that characterized this election defined old Oyo State (of which Osun was part) in August 1983. Just as the electoral horror of the Western Region signposted the collapse of the First Republic, the 1983 electoral violence in Osun ultimately buried the Second Republic.

I was in Osogbo, the state capital, as part of a Town Hall meeting organized by Arise TV and the Nigerian Tribune for the governorship candidates. Seated inside the hall were the key political gladiators: Ademola Adeleke, Bola Oyebamiji, Najeem Salam, and others. Their supporters wore multi-coloured outfits reminiscent of Dolly Parton’s 1971 classic “Coat of Many Colours.” Where spectators saw colourful gaiety, I observed two distinct things: an elephant and the tragedy of political propaganda textile material called Aso Ebi. I saw a massive elephant about to hit the canvas, surrounded by gluttons wielding glittering knives to carve out its humongous pieces of meat. This immediately brought to mind the Yoruba aphorism: “Orísiríṣi ọbẹ làá rí ní’jọ ikú erin”— On the day the elephant falls, knives of all shapes jostle for a share. Beyond the outer beauty of the Aso Ebi, a tragic drama was unfolding.

Regardless of who is declared winner, the scars inflicted on Osun State and Nigeria’s electoral politics risk becoming what the Yoruba describe as ada’jina — a chronic, festering wound that refuses to heal. Osun has long been a volatile swing state whose political temperature swings unpredictably, depending on whether authority is accepted or rejected. Pre-election violence involving both the federal ruling party (APC) and state-level political actors of the Accord Partyfollowed the familiar, ruinous template of Nigerian elections. Both sides displayed complete mastery of intimidation, vote-buying, and electoral violence, turning Osun into a battleground.

Turning Osun into a war theatre was vicariously the president’s doing. Itexposed a totalizing view of electoral politics that makes opposition dangerous in Nigeria. It explains why Francis Fadahunsi, a senator close to the president, could brazenly call for the elimination of opposition elements and instruct enforcement agents to deal with non-APC voters on Saturday. While Fadahunsi’s flippancy highlights his own villainy, it raises a wider question: how many others like him have grown emboldened inside a system where political brigandage is normalized?

Even as the presidency issued meek, statesmanlike press releases to distance itself from the heavy-handedness in Osun, the underground perception remains clear: the executive gave implicit approval to the ruthless villainy that unfolded.

In 1983, that same geography, which is now Osun State, became victim of electoral rampage. This writer, living in Ilesa at the time, witnessed the anarchy firsthand. Angry voters who suspected electoral fraud, battled policemen to a standstill in Ilesa. They set homes of political opponents ablaze in a violence that shook Ijesaland and Nigeria to their foundation. At least, 49 people were recorded killed in a week of the announcement of results by Ovie Whiskey’s FEDECO. President Shehu Shagari’s NPN was accused of mass ballot-rigging. While there were pockets of arson and killings, Nigeria’s worst hit states were the old Oyo and Ondo States, with unofficial casualty figures put at 25 dead in Oyo state and 24 in Ondo.

The Ondo carnage was described as the most gruesome, with human beings barbecued, their bodies fiddled with to and fro for total incineration, like grilled fish on hot iron gauze. This included Olaiya Fagbamigbe, Member of the Federal House of Representatives and Awoleye Agunbiade, former Majority Leader in the Ondo State House of assembly. NPN official, R.A. Agbayewa and his wife were also beaten to deathand ultimately grilled like fish. The angry mob in Ile-Ife equally burnt down a police station, as well as storming the city’s prison to free some recorded hundreds of prisoners. They equallyburned down the federal election commission office in Akure, as well asdestroying ballots and ballot boxes. Governor-elect Akin Omoboriowo had to pay homage to the hare to escape their wrath. Four months after, that republic collapsed as the army took over power.

That historic electoral tragedy in Osun and the earlier ones in the First and Second Republics mirror both Okonkwo’s tragic downfall and Christopher Marlowe’s Elizabethan masterpiece, Doctor Faustus. Marlowe tells the story of Dr. Faustus, a celebrated scholar who grows dissatisfied with traditional knowledge — law, religion, logic, and medicine, and turns instead to black magic taught by Valdes and Cornelius. Faustus summons Mephastophilis, who explicitly warns him of the horrors of hell. Undeterred, Faustus surrenders his soul to Lucifer in exchange for twenty-four years of magical power. Yet, having traded his eternal soul, the scholar squanders his time on petty tricks until midnight strikes, and he is dragged down into eternal damnation.

As the Osun election unfolded, the process was not only stained with blood, but stood as a perfect replica of Marlowe’s tragedy. It evokes the poignant lines of Negritude poet David Diop in The Vultures: “their talons stained in blood / From where the wild current floods / A heavy weight upon the crest / No song of peace / No gentle nest.”

This brings me back to the Aso Ebi seen across Osun and its signification of political tragedy. In Nigeria, textiles and politics are deeply intertwined instruments of propaganda. They appear as ankara fabric distributed in yardages, T-shirts, caps, and banners. Southwestern Nigeria has a long history of weaponizing textiles in politics. The legendary Ibadan politician, Adegoke Adelabu, pioneered this strategy ahead of the 1954 and 1956 elections. He commissioned propaganda cloths bearing his name and face. However, following his party’s defeat, the unsold fabrics left his Lebanese-Syrian business partner, Albert Younan, burdened with massive bank debts. It was on their return journey from Lagos after seeking a financial solution on March 25, 1958, that Adelabu’s car crashed near Ode-Remo, prematurely extinguishing the life of the 43-year-old political powerhouse. Ever since, Aso Ebi has remained an indispensable tool of Nigerian electioneering.

More instructively, power sometimes fails those besotted to it. If the gun of power suffers misfire, those who sang destruction as song in Osun State on Saturday could fall by their own dagger of power. It will answer to Yoruba’s saying that wisdom sometimes kills the wise. In which case, those federal billions spent to grab Osun could end up in ruins and Ikemefiuna would escape the attempted filicide of Okonkwo.

Beyond Okonkwo, the Gbedu drum, Brutus, and the semiotics of Aso Ebi, the Osun election serves as a metric for 2027. Even if the attempt of men of power to flex their muscles fails, it will be a measurement for January and February next year. It will then bring to mind the words of Muhammadu Odolaye Aremu, the legendary Dadakuada bard from Ilorin. In his music extolling the height and majestic power of Ilorin’s Sobi Hills, Aremu reminded us that all human power is fleeting and every empire eventually falls.

Weaving fatalism into oral poetry and epigrams, the bard observed that even Sobi Hills, despite its grand permanence, eventually grew so neglected that green weeds sprouted upon it. That song was acaution to all of us on the inevitable decline of dynasties, kingdoms, and political leaders. The Osun election results may yet prove this to the powerful men in Aso Rock. And an indication that even when they think they have everything, they may actually have nothing. One can only hope someone is listening.