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Higher food prices, forex pressures push inflation to 29%

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Food, forex pressures push inflation to 29%
• Food prices soar
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Soaring food prices and foreign exchange pressures may have pushed up push inflation rate beyond 29 per cent, it was learnt yesterday.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will today release the Inflation Report.

Intelligence reports by many economic and finance firms surveyed yesterday by The Nation showed that inflation may have risen by between 50 to 80 basis points last month, the highest since August 2005.

But, experts expressed optimism that early gains from the reforms introduced by the government would ease the pressure on Nigerians and put the economy steady path of recovery.

The increase in inflation in December 2023 indicated that average costs of basic living items rose for every month last year.

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Ahead of today’s release of the inflation report by the NBS, independent consumer surveys and econometric models indicated that inflation remained unabated, although the momentum of price increases appeared to be slowing down.

The reports indicated that inflation may rise from 28.2 per cent in November 2023 to estimated ceiling of about 29 per cent in December 2023. It had started the year with 21.8 per cent in January 2023.

Analysts at Afrinvest West Africa expected inflation at 29.0 per cent while Financial Derivatives Company (FDC) estimated current inflation at 28.7 per cent.

Experts agreed that the increase in inflation rate was due mainly to naira depreciation, foreign exchange (forex) pressure and the lingering effect of the removal of subsidy on premium motor spirit (PMS), otherwise known as petrol.

FDC noted that while December inflation will be at a record high and raises concern of Nigeria becoming an outlier, Nigeria will likely see moderation in inflation in 2024.

The Bismarck Rewane-led FDC pointed out that “inflation is estimated to decline in 2024”, noting that inflation expectations are more important than historical inflation.

“Though, inflation in Nigeria has increased consistently in 2023, many experts are projecting a significant decline in 2024. According to EIU, inflation in Nigeria is expected to fall to 23.6 per cent in 2024 and 17 per cent in 2025. These projections are not unrealistic, as Nigeria is likely to see a moderation in inflationary pressures in second half 2024,” FDC stated.

Rewane urged the government to back up its revenue reforms with increased fiscal spending and unlocking the economy from several bottlenecks.

According to him, in order to balance the reforms, government should implement two contemporaneous actions, including boosting fiscal spending to increase earnings for businesses and households and to prioritize removing the embedded structural bottlenecks that bookend extreme poverty, constrained growth, and macroeconomic instability.

“Going into 2024, it is imperative for policy communication to be coherent and consistent to avoid the unintended consequences of market reactions to policy inactions or wrong policy therapy,” Rewane advised.

Managing Director, Arthur Stevens Asset Management, Mr. Olatunde Amolegbe, said inflation may continue to rise in the early part of 2024, but this will slow down later in the year.

He said: “I think it will still rise in the first half of the year but at a slower pace since most of the issues contributing to rising inflation seems to be already factored in. The coming on stream of Dangote Refinery should reduce forex demand pressures and rising crude oil price will hopefully improve liquidity.”

He noted that food prices could moderate if farm production improves as on the back of reduced insecurity while consumer resistance on the back of lower disposable income could also contribute to slow rate of inflation growth.

Amolegbe, a former president of Chartered Institute of Stockbrokers (CIS), said: “So, to tackle inflation we need to deal with insecurity, supply chain issues, stabilize forex supply and prices and curb interest rate increases.”

Managing Director, Highcap Securities, Mr. David Adonri, said inflation will reduce in the months ahead.

He said: “Rising inflation is expected to moderate in 2024. The economy will readjust to the new price level precipitated by last year’s market reforms. Coming on stream of local refineries will reduce pressure on forex and hence reduce depreciation of the naira. Nigeria’s inflation is fueled by insecurity which depresses production and forex scarcity which escalates cost of production and imports. Addressing these issues will certainly subdue inflation.”

FDSH Group stated that it expected to see more collaboration between the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and fiscal authorities on inflation, especially in dealing with the non-monetary triggers of inflation, otherwise the bank’s efforts to squeeze liquidity will only yield negative outcomes.

The Group said: “Challenges associated with agricultural productivity, logistics bottlenecks, infrastructure deficit and activities of non-state actors in imposing charges on businesses have implications for inflation in Nigeria, and efforts must be made to address them.

“The CBN must also be aware of its limits in taming inflation using monetary policy, especially given the peculiarities of the Nigerian economy – a large informal economy, a huge population of financially excluded individuals, etc.

“Therefore, constant dialogue with fiscal authorities is required, and we believe that the process of engaging with non-monetary authorities needs to be institutionalised to ensure proper coordination.”

Cordros Capital Group outlined disinflationary trend in the second half of 2024 as the macroeconomic environment improves.

Analysts at Cordros Capital said they expected gradual phasing out of the current impact of PMS subsidy and forex reforms on the non-oil sector, higher crude oil production relative to 2023 levels amid supportive oil prices and forex supply improvement in line with the authorities’ expectations of forex inflows from arrangement with international banks.

“Also, we expect foreign investors’ sentiments to improve next year, given the recent monetary authorities’ actions in sucking financial system liquidity and ensuring naira assets are attractive, even as the government is expecting forex inflows up to $10.00 billion from different sources,” Cordros Capital noted.

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Mbah: Enugu Now Produces 120 Million Litres of Water Daily, Expands Agricultural Investment

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Enugu Governor, Dr Peter Mbah
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By Tony Edike

Enugu State Governor, Peter Mbah, has said the state has increased its daily water production capacity from two million litres to 120 million litres, while intensifying efforts to ensure reliable water supply reaches households across Enugu metropolis.

Mbah disclosed this during a town hall meeting held at the International Conference Center in Enugu on Wednesday , where he addressed issues relating to water supply, agricultural development, regional security cooperation and the state’s economic prospects.

The governor explained that although the state had significantly expanded its water production capacity, ageing pipelines, burst pipes, encroached water corridors and other infrastructure challenges had slowed the distribution of water to some communities.

According to him, the state initially needed about 80 million litres of water daily to ensure adequate supply to homes across Enugu metropolis, against the two million litres being produced when his administration took office.

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He said the government began procuring critical equipment before his inauguration to accelerate the implementation of its 180-day water supply commitment.

“We front-loaded the procurement because some of the items we needed to procure were long-lead items,” Mbah said, explaining that some equipment, particularly large pumps, required several months to manufacture and deliver.

He added that the government also reactivated the Ninth Mile water scheme, which had remained dormant for years, contributing to the increase in production capacity.

However, Mbah said the expansion exposed weaknesses in the existing distribution network, including brittle pipes that had exceeded their design life, asbestos pipes and sections of the pipeline network obstructed by buildings.

He said the government decided against demolishing citizens’ buildings along affected pipeline routes, opting instead to develop new distribution networks.

According to the governor, Enugu metropolis has been divided into 14 zones, with work ongoing to extend water supply to the last mile.

He said the government had also procured horizontal drilling equipment to enable underground pipe installation without unnecessarily cutting open roads.

“We have a buffer of over 50 per cent to serve the entire city of Enugu. What we’re now dealing with is making sure that the water gets to the last mile,” he said.

Mbah assured residents that his administration remained committed to resolving the water supply challenge, adding that he received daily briefings on progress in the sector.

Enugu Opens Up Agricultural Sector to Investors

The governor also highlighted his administration’s agricultural development initiatives, saying the state was creating opportunities for commercial farming, mechanisation and agro-processing.

He disclosed that Enugu had more than 167,000 hectares of land available as a land bank for commercial agricultural investments, with some communities voluntarily making land available for farming and wealth creation.

Mbah said the government was engaging investors across different parts of the state and had established a tractor assembly plant to support agricultural mechanisation.

He added that the state had more than 60,000 farmers in its database, cultivating over 80,000 hectares of land, with the coordinates of their farms documented.

According to him, the government recently distributed more than 60,000 bags of fertiliser free of charge to farmers, alongside other farming tools, improved seedlings and handheld tractors.

He said the interventions were aimed at increasing agricultural productivity and helping smallholder farmers transition from subsistence farming to mechanised agriculture.

Mbah further disclosed that the government was constructing agro-transformation centres across the state’s three senatorial zones, in addition to a special agro-processing zone intended to support large-scale agricultural production and processing.

He also announced that an integrated livestock facility capable of accommodating more than 20,000 cattle was under construction around the Obollo and Eha-Amufu axis, while Enugu was among three states selected for a federal government integrated poultry project.

The governor said the agricultural initiatives were designed not only to increase food production but also to encourage processing, attract private investment and create employment.

Security: Mbah Cites Federal Support, Regional Intelligence Sharing

On security, Mbah said Enugu State had benefited from its relationship with the Federal Government, particularly through support for security operations and improved collaboration among security agencies.

Responding to concerns about insecurity along interstate border areas, including flashpoints connecting Enugu with neighbouring states, the governor said intelligence sharing and regional cooperation had improved.

He disclosed that the establishment of the state’s Distress Response Squad received approval from the Federal Government.

Mbah also said the state was working closely with the Nigerian Army, Police, Department of State Services, Nigerian Air Force and Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps to strengthen security operations.

According to him, although regional collaboration might not always be reflected in a single physical command centre, intelligence sharing and cooperation among security agencies had increased.

He maintained that Enugu’s relationship with the Federal Government had brought benefits beyond security, including opportunities to attract national events, conferences and other activities to the state.

Enugu Repositioning Itself as Regional Hub

The governor said Enugu was regaining its position as a regional hub after years in which it was increasingly being displaced by other locations.

He cited the hosting of national conferences and activities, including the National Council on Agriculture and other major events, as evidence of renewed interest in the state.

Mbah said the return of such activities was creating opportunities for local businesses and residents through increased economic activity.

He argued that reconnecting Enugu to national economic and institutional networks was essential to sustaining its regional importance.

Mbah Defends Federal Economic Reforms

The governor also defended the Federal Government’s economic reforms, arguing that stabilising the macroeconomic environment was necessary to attract private investment and stimulate growth.

He cited Nigeria’s foreign reserves, which he put at about $58 billion, and what he described as improved foreign exchange stability as indicators of progress.

Mbah said allowing the foreign exchange market to respond to market forces had helped address pressures that previously contributed to the depletion of the country’s reserves and weakened confidence in the naira.

He argued that economic stability would encourage private capital to enter the economy, leading to job creation, increased earnings and a reduction in poverty.

According to him, the reforms required political courage and should be assessed by their impact on economic indicators and growth.

“We are on the right path, and I can tell you from the numbers we’re seeing and the growth we are witnessing now, we are seeing the light at the end of the tunnel,” he said.

The governor maintained that the benefits of economic stabilisation would become more evident as investment increased and economic activity expanded.

He said the state government would continue pursuing its infrastructure, agricultural and security initiatives as part of efforts to improve living conditions and strengthen Enugu’s economic position.

 

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FG confirms Ebola case in FCT, identifies 44 contacts

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The Federal Government has confirmed a case of Ebola disease in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), identifying 44 close contacts as health authorities intensify efforts to contain the infection and prevent further spread.

The Coordinating Minister of Health and Social Welfare, Professor Muhammad Ali Pate, disclosed this in a statement issued on Tuesday, October 20, 2026, following laboratory confirmation of the case.

According to the statement, the patient is a woman who recently arrived in Nigeria on an international flight from Uganda.

She was admitted to a private hospital in the FCT, where she received treatment for several days before the diagnosis was confirmed.

The Minister said the patient was currently in isolation and receiving medical care.

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He added that the Federal Ministry of Health and Social Welfare, the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (NCDC), the FCT Health Services Secretariat and other relevant authorities were working together to contain the infection.

Contact tracing has commenced, with public health teams identifying and monitoring individuals who may have been exposed to the patient, including healthcare workers, patients, caregivers and travel contacts.

The government has also intensified disease surveillance, while the hospital where the patient received treatment is being supported to strengthen its infection prevention and control measures.

The Federal Government called on public and private healthcare facilities across the country to remain on high alert and promptly report suspected cases to public health authorities.

It urged healthcare workers to maintain a high index of suspicion, identify and isolate suspected cases without delay, and strictly observe infection prevention and control protocols.

The government also explained that Ebola spreads through direct contact with the blood or other body fluids of an infected person who is sick or has died from the disease, as well as contact with contaminated materials.

It further clarified that a person infected with Ebola cannot transmit the disease before symptoms develop.

The government urged Nigerians to remain informed and follow public health guidance as authorities continue efforts to contain the confirmed case and prevent further transmission.

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Afenifere leader, Fasoranti, dies at 100

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Late Pa Reuben Famuyide Fasoranti
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Pa Reuben Famuyide Fasoranti, the revered Yoruba elder statesman and national leader of the pan-Yoruba socio-political organisation, Afenifere, has died at the age of 100.

Announcing the death of the centenarian, Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa, in a statement personally signed on Tuesday, mourned the death of the elder statesman and community leader.

Aiyedatiwa described the late Fasoranti as a symbol of wisdom, integrity and selfless service whose contributions to the development of Ondo State, Yorubaland and Nigeria would remain indelible.

The governor, in a condolence message issued on Tuesday, said the centenarian’s fatherly counsel, guidance and principled positions on justice and good governance would be sorely missed.

He said Fasoranti lived a fulfilled life and left behind an enduring legacy that would continue to inspire generations.

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“Pa Fasoranti was a patriarch, a beacon of wisdom, integrity and selfless service whose century-long life was marked by uncommon commitment to the development of our dear State, Yorubaland and Nigeria at large,” Aiyedatiwa said.

Aiyedatiwa, who expressed sadness over the elder statesman’s death, said his administration and the people of Ondo State shared in the grief of the deceased’s family and associates.

On behalf of the state government and its people, the governor extended his condolences to the Fasoranti family, the people of Akure Kingdom, and the entire state over the loss.

He prayed for the peaceful repose of the deceased’s soul.

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