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Higher food prices, forex pressures push inflation to 29%

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Food, forex pressures push inflation to 29%
• Food prices soar
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Soaring food prices and foreign exchange pressures may have pushed up push inflation rate beyond 29 per cent, it was learnt yesterday.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will today release the Inflation Report.

Intelligence reports by many economic and finance firms surveyed yesterday by The Nation showed that inflation may have risen by between 50 to 80 basis points last month, the highest since August 2005.

But, experts expressed optimism that early gains from the reforms introduced by the government would ease the pressure on Nigerians and put the economy steady path of recovery.

The increase in inflation in December 2023 indicated that average costs of basic living items rose for every month last year.

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Ahead of today’s release of the inflation report by the NBS, independent consumer surveys and econometric models indicated that inflation remained unabated, although the momentum of price increases appeared to be slowing down.

The reports indicated that inflation may rise from 28.2 per cent in November 2023 to estimated ceiling of about 29 per cent in December 2023. It had started the year with 21.8 per cent in January 2023.

Analysts at Afrinvest West Africa expected inflation at 29.0 per cent while Financial Derivatives Company (FDC) estimated current inflation at 28.7 per cent.

Experts agreed that the increase in inflation rate was due mainly to naira depreciation, foreign exchange (forex) pressure and the lingering effect of the removal of subsidy on premium motor spirit (PMS), otherwise known as petrol.

FDC noted that while December inflation will be at a record high and raises concern of Nigeria becoming an outlier, Nigeria will likely see moderation in inflation in 2024.

The Bismarck Rewane-led FDC pointed out that “inflation is estimated to decline in 2024”, noting that inflation expectations are more important than historical inflation.

“Though, inflation in Nigeria has increased consistently in 2023, many experts are projecting a significant decline in 2024. According to EIU, inflation in Nigeria is expected to fall to 23.6 per cent in 2024 and 17 per cent in 2025. These projections are not unrealistic, as Nigeria is likely to see a moderation in inflationary pressures in second half 2024,” FDC stated.

Rewane urged the government to back up its revenue reforms with increased fiscal spending and unlocking the economy from several bottlenecks.

According to him, in order to balance the reforms, government should implement two contemporaneous actions, including boosting fiscal spending to increase earnings for businesses and households and to prioritize removing the embedded structural bottlenecks that bookend extreme poverty, constrained growth, and macroeconomic instability.

“Going into 2024, it is imperative for policy communication to be coherent and consistent to avoid the unintended consequences of market reactions to policy inactions or wrong policy therapy,” Rewane advised.

Managing Director, Arthur Stevens Asset Management, Mr. Olatunde Amolegbe, said inflation may continue to rise in the early part of 2024, but this will slow down later in the year.

He said: “I think it will still rise in the first half of the year but at a slower pace since most of the issues contributing to rising inflation seems to be already factored in. The coming on stream of Dangote Refinery should reduce forex demand pressures and rising crude oil price will hopefully improve liquidity.”

He noted that food prices could moderate if farm production improves as on the back of reduced insecurity while consumer resistance on the back of lower disposable income could also contribute to slow rate of inflation growth.

Amolegbe, a former president of Chartered Institute of Stockbrokers (CIS), said: “So, to tackle inflation we need to deal with insecurity, supply chain issues, stabilize forex supply and prices and curb interest rate increases.”

Managing Director, Highcap Securities, Mr. David Adonri, said inflation will reduce in the months ahead.

He said: “Rising inflation is expected to moderate in 2024. The economy will readjust to the new price level precipitated by last year’s market reforms. Coming on stream of local refineries will reduce pressure on forex and hence reduce depreciation of the naira. Nigeria’s inflation is fueled by insecurity which depresses production and forex scarcity which escalates cost of production and imports. Addressing these issues will certainly subdue inflation.”

FDSH Group stated that it expected to see more collaboration between the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and fiscal authorities on inflation, especially in dealing with the non-monetary triggers of inflation, otherwise the bank’s efforts to squeeze liquidity will only yield negative outcomes.

The Group said: “Challenges associated with agricultural productivity, logistics bottlenecks, infrastructure deficit and activities of non-state actors in imposing charges on businesses have implications for inflation in Nigeria, and efforts must be made to address them.

“The CBN must also be aware of its limits in taming inflation using monetary policy, especially given the peculiarities of the Nigerian economy – a large informal economy, a huge population of financially excluded individuals, etc.

“Therefore, constant dialogue with fiscal authorities is required, and we believe that the process of engaging with non-monetary authorities needs to be institutionalised to ensure proper coordination.”

Cordros Capital Group outlined disinflationary trend in the second half of 2024 as the macroeconomic environment improves.

Analysts at Cordros Capital said they expected gradual phasing out of the current impact of PMS subsidy and forex reforms on the non-oil sector, higher crude oil production relative to 2023 levels amid supportive oil prices and forex supply improvement in line with the authorities’ expectations of forex inflows from arrangement with international banks.

“Also, we expect foreign investors’ sentiments to improve next year, given the recent monetary authorities’ actions in sucking financial system liquidity and ensuring naira assets are attractive, even as the government is expecting forex inflows up to $10.00 billion from different sources,” Cordros Capital noted.

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Mbah: Media, Govt Must Meet at Point of Truth

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Enugu Governor, Dr Peter Mbah
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Enugu State Governor, Peter Mbah, has challenged the government and the media to meet at the point of truth, urging journalists to go beyond headlines and political narratives by independently establishing facts through evidence, investigation and context.

Mbah said government had a responsibility to be transparent about its actions and accountable for its results, while the press must independently scrutinise those actions and report the truth, whether the findings exposed shortcomings or revealed progress.

The governor stated this on Thursday while welcoming over 300 editors to the 22nd All Nigeria Editors Conference organised by the Nigerian Guild of Editors in Enugu.

The conference has as its theme, “The Ballot, the Media and the Task of Keeping Democracy Alive,” while its sub-theme is “When Lies Look Real: Detecting and Debunking AI Misinformation Before, During and After Elections.”

Mbah said the relationship between government and the media should not always be defined by confrontation, stressing that both institutions had different responsibilities but a common obligation to serve the Nigerian people.

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“Government must be transparent about what it is doing and be accountable for the results. The press must establish the facts and report the truth.

“Sometimes that truth will expose failure. Sometimes it will reveal progress. The obligation for us both is the same in either case – serving the people of Nigeria,” he said.

The governor urged journalists to deepen investigative reporting, particularly at a time when artificial intelligence and other technologies were making it increasingly difficult to distinguish between genuine and fabricated information.

He said AI could be used to fabricate photographs, clone voices and manipulate videos to make people appear to say things they never said, warning that the development had increased the responsibility of professional journalists.

“My challenge to you, therefore, is simple – go deeper,” Mbah told the editors.
He said investigative journalism should not become a luxury, urging editors to create room for journalists to devote time and resources to understanding complex issues and establishing facts.

According to him, rigorous journalism should not involve searching for evidence to support a position that had already been taken.

“Its value lies precisely in its independence: examine the evidence, test competing claims, establish what happened, and report what you find,” he said.

Mbah added that the same standard should apply to government and its critics, stressing that government achievements should not be ignored simply because they did not fit a particular political narrative.

“We have tried to build an Enugu government that is open about what it is doing and clear about what it is trying to achieve. Where we fall short, that should call for scrutiny and be reported. But the same principle applies when the evidence reveals progress,” he said.

The governor also used the occasion to highlight some of his administration’s projects, including more than 1,500 kilometres of roads constructed or reconstructed, over 7,000 classrooms, Smart Green Schools and Type-2 Primary Healthcare Centres across the state’s 260 wards.

He listed other interventions as water infrastructure, new transport terminals and CNG buses, Enugu Air, the revival of dormant industries and the development of a new city.

Mbah said the administration was working to position Enugu as an economic gateway to the South-East, with the ambition of making the state one of Nigeria’s leading economies and a national leader in human development and quality of life.

He also acknowledged the support of President Bola Tinubu and the Federal Government, particularly in areas of roads, aviation, energy and regional development.

The governor urged the editors to use their presence in Enugu to independently assess the developments in the state.
“Take some time to explore the city, speak to the people who live and work here, and get a sense of the direction in which Enugu is moving,” he said.

Also speaking at the conference, the Minister of Information and National Orientation, Mohammed Idris, warned that the misuse of Artificial Intelligence to create fake photographs, videos, audio recordings and documents posed a serious challenge to public trust and the electoral process.

Idris, who delivered his goodwill message through the Managing Director of the News Agency of Nigeria, Ali M. Ali, said the danger was not only that citizens could believe false information, but that they could eventually stop believing anything.

He urged media organisations to make verification a permanent part of newsroom culture, asking journalists to establish who made a claim, what evidence supported it, when an image was taken, whether a video was original and whether the source had been independently verified.

Idris also charged the media to subject government performance to rigorous scrutiny without exaggerating achievements or ignoring shortcomings.

“A responsible press should neither exaggerate achievements nor ignore them. It should examine them, verify them, ask the difficult questions, and allow citizens to understand both the progress and the shortcomings. This is how public trust is built,” he said.

The minister further urged journalists to explain the implications of amendments to the Electoral Act signed into law in February 2026, saying Nigerians needed to understand what had changed and what remained the same.

He cautioned journalists against becoming participants in political contests, saying their responsibility was to establish facts, provide context and allow citizens to make their own judgments.

In his keynote lecture, the Archbishop Emeritus of Abuja, John Onaiyekan, called for reforms in the appointment of the chairman and commissioners of the Independent National Electoral Commission.

Onaiyekan argued that the appointment process should be reviewed to strengthen the independence of the electoral body, particularly because the President and governors are political actors in elections.

“We need to review the method of appointment of the INEC chairman and the commissioners. They should not depend on Mr President and the governors, who are themselves contestants in elections,” he said.

He also advocated the establishment of a special election tribunal dedicated exclusively to electoral disputes, with a defined timeframe for resolving cases.

Onaiyekan argued that election petitions should, as much as possible, be concluded before elected officials are sworn into office.

He further called for changes to allow ordinary voters to challenge election results where they believed their votes had not been properly counted.

“Our laws should make provision for the citizen as citizen and as electors to challenge results of the election at tribunals,” he said.

The cleric said strengthening electoral institutions, improving dispute resolution and ensuring credible information remained essential to sustaining public confidence in Nigeria’s democracy.

The conference brought together editors and senior media professionals to examine the role of journalism in protecting democratic values, strengthening public accountability and safeguarding the integrity of Nigeria’s electoral process.

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NSCDC deploys 2,527 personnel for Enugu LG Polls

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Dr Elijah Willie
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The Nigeria Security and Civil Defense Corps (NSCDC) has deployed no fewer than 2,527 personnel for the Enugu State Local Government Elections scheduled for Saturday, Sept. 26.

The Commandant of NSCDC Enugu State Command, Dr Elijah Willie, told newsmen on Thursday in Enugu that those deployed included uniformed and plain cloth officers and men.

Willie noted that the Corps would strategical deploy seven vehicles for the Area Commanders, four additional van trucks, other vehicles for operational support staff for monitoring, while the commandant vehicular team would be on duty.

According to him, the command is ready for the council elections and we have been preparing ahead of time for it.

He said, “I have met the Corps management staff, Area Commanders, Divisional Corps Officers, head of special squad units and heads of departments on the election for sometime now.

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“They have been briefed and oriented on their roles and responsibilities.

“We have developed an operational modules for the election, having received that of the police.

“The command will extend the same operational modules and its instructions down to officers and men in divisional areas and wards in order to ensure all officers and men work according to instruction.

“The command also directed officers and men to be firm carrying out their election duties while being civil and ensure due respect for human rights.”

He revealed that due to the council polls, the command and sister security agencies had been raiding criminal black spots and flashpoints in the state to ensure the state remained calm during the election.

The commandant urged residents to feel free and come out to exercise their franchise, while voting for the candidate of their choice without fear or favour.

“The NSCDC and other sister security agencies are assuring residents of a peaceful, violence-free and fair election as we are highly prepared to ensure a hitch-free and successful election.

“Miscreants are also warned to steer clear of the state and the election as there will be no room or space for them to operate.

“They should also be reminded that their activities are being tracked with statewide technology that will easily spot them out,” he said.

Willie noted that the NSCDC had also put in place other vintage security measures for the election, which might not be appropriate for the press.

It would be recalled that the Enugu State Independent Electoral Commission (ENSIEC) had scheduled a statewide elections into the 17 Chairmanship and 260 Ward Councillorship positions in the state on Saturday, Sept. 26.

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Security agencies assure Enugu residents of peaceful, hitch-free LG Election

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Security agencies in Enugu State have assured residents of the state of a peaceful, hitch-free and credible Local Government Election upcoming on Sept. 26.

Speaking on behalf of other security agencies after a security meeting on the elections on Thursday, the state Commissioner of Police, Mr Mamman Giwa, said that the election security arrangement had been concluded.

Giwa noted that the security agencies had put in place firm and robust strategies to ensure a peaceful, hitch-free and credible election on Sept. 26.

He said that the security agencies had made robust plans to take care of flashpoints and ensure no miscreant do anything to violate electoral rules.

According to him, we have planned to give the residents of Enugu State a very successful and peaceful election that they will be proud of.

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“We have put our heads together to come out with formidable strategies for the conduct of the election.

“Our officers and men from various security agencies will be everywhere to ensure safety for all residents and people come out to cast their vote without fear or favour.

“The security agencies have vowed to ensure peace before, during and after the election and respond swiftly to any perceived incident that will be a threat to the election,” he said.

The commissioner said that so far there had been no threat to the election, while the security agencies had deployed adequate intelligence to ensure any threat is taken care of proactively.

Giwa urged those who would want to protect their votes after going to the ballot to do it with civility and decorum, while respecting electoral rules.

Speaking, the Executive Chairman of Enugu State Independent Electoral Commission (ENSIEC), Prof. Christian Ngwu, said that ENSIEC was “very ready” for the election after “due and proper” arrangement.

Ngwu said that security agencies had assured residents adequate security with all their officers and men on ground before, during and after the election.

“They have assured the commission to deal decisively with any threat or persons that intend to cause trouble or create problem for election officials or electorate.

“We are anticipating a successful, hitch-free, transparent and credible election on Saturday.

“ENSIEC want eligible voters to come out en masse with their voters cards to cast their votes and elect their preferred candidates,” he said.

It would be recalled that ENSIEC had scheduled polls for the 17 Chairmanship and 260 Ward Councillorship positions in the state for Sept. 26.

The chairman also urged electorate to be free to defend their votes, adding,: “But you should not cause any trouble while doing that”.

The other security agencies that attended the meeting included: Nigerian Army, Nigerian Air Force, Nigerian Navy, the Nigeria Security and Civil Defense (NSCDC) and Department of State Security (DSS).

The rest are: the Federal Road Safety Corps (FRSC), Nigeria Correctional Service, Nigeria Immigration Service, Nigeria Customs Service, Federal and State Fire Service and the Forest Guard among others.

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