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Higher food prices, forex pressures push inflation to 29%
Soaring food prices and foreign exchange pressures may have pushed up push inflation rate beyond 29 per cent, it was learnt yesterday.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will today release the Inflation Report.
Intelligence reports by many economic and finance firms surveyed yesterday by The Nation showed that inflation may have risen by between 50 to 80 basis points last month, the highest since August 2005.
But, experts expressed optimism that early gains from the reforms introduced by the government would ease the pressure on Nigerians and put the economy steady path of recovery.
The increase in inflation in December 2023 indicated that average costs of basic living items rose for every month last year.
Ahead of today’s release of the inflation report by the NBS, independent consumer surveys and econometric models indicated that inflation remained unabated, although the momentum of price increases appeared to be slowing down.
The reports indicated that inflation may rise from 28.2 per cent in November 2023 to estimated ceiling of about 29 per cent in December 2023. It had started the year with 21.8 per cent in January 2023.
Analysts at Afrinvest West Africa expected inflation at 29.0 per cent while Financial Derivatives Company (FDC) estimated current inflation at 28.7 per cent.
Experts agreed that the increase in inflation rate was due mainly to naira depreciation, foreign exchange (forex) pressure and the lingering effect of the removal of subsidy on premium motor spirit (PMS), otherwise known as petrol.
FDC noted that while December inflation will be at a record high and raises concern of Nigeria becoming an outlier, Nigeria will likely see moderation in inflation in 2024.
The Bismarck Rewane-led FDC pointed out that “inflation is estimated to decline in 2024”, noting that inflation expectations are more important than historical inflation.
“Though, inflation in Nigeria has increased consistently in 2023, many experts are projecting a significant decline in 2024. According to EIU, inflation in Nigeria is expected to fall to 23.6 per cent in 2024 and 17 per cent in 2025. These projections are not unrealistic, as Nigeria is likely to see a moderation in inflationary pressures in second half 2024,” FDC stated.
Rewane urged the government to back up its revenue reforms with increased fiscal spending and unlocking the economy from several bottlenecks.
According to him, in order to balance the reforms, government should implement two contemporaneous actions, including boosting fiscal spending to increase earnings for businesses and households and to prioritize removing the embedded structural bottlenecks that bookend extreme poverty, constrained growth, and macroeconomic instability.
“Going into 2024, it is imperative for policy communication to be coherent and consistent to avoid the unintended consequences of market reactions to policy inactions or wrong policy therapy,” Rewane advised.
Managing Director, Arthur Stevens Asset Management, Mr. Olatunde Amolegbe, said inflation may continue to rise in the early part of 2024, but this will slow down later in the year.
He said: “I think it will still rise in the first half of the year but at a slower pace since most of the issues contributing to rising inflation seems to be already factored in. The coming on stream of Dangote Refinery should reduce forex demand pressures and rising crude oil price will hopefully improve liquidity.”
He noted that food prices could moderate if farm production improves as on the back of reduced insecurity while consumer resistance on the back of lower disposable income could also contribute to slow rate of inflation growth.
Amolegbe, a former president of Chartered Institute of Stockbrokers (CIS), said: “So, to tackle inflation we need to deal with insecurity, supply chain issues, stabilize forex supply and prices and curb interest rate increases.”
Managing Director, Highcap Securities, Mr. David Adonri, said inflation will reduce in the months ahead.
He said: “Rising inflation is expected to moderate in 2024. The economy will readjust to the new price level precipitated by last year’s market reforms. Coming on stream of local refineries will reduce pressure on forex and hence reduce depreciation of the naira. Nigeria’s inflation is fueled by insecurity which depresses production and forex scarcity which escalates cost of production and imports. Addressing these issues will certainly subdue inflation.”
FDSH Group stated that it expected to see more collaboration between the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and fiscal authorities on inflation, especially in dealing with the non-monetary triggers of inflation, otherwise the bank’s efforts to squeeze liquidity will only yield negative outcomes.
The Group said: “Challenges associated with agricultural productivity, logistics bottlenecks, infrastructure deficit and activities of non-state actors in imposing charges on businesses have implications for inflation in Nigeria, and efforts must be made to address them.
“The CBN must also be aware of its limits in taming inflation using monetary policy, especially given the peculiarities of the Nigerian economy – a large informal economy, a huge population of financially excluded individuals, etc.
“Therefore, constant dialogue with fiscal authorities is required, and we believe that the process of engaging with non-monetary authorities needs to be institutionalised to ensure proper coordination.”
Cordros Capital Group outlined disinflationary trend in the second half of 2024 as the macroeconomic environment improves.
Analysts at Cordros Capital said they expected gradual phasing out of the current impact of PMS subsidy and forex reforms on the non-oil sector, higher crude oil production relative to 2023 levels amid supportive oil prices and forex supply improvement in line with the authorities’ expectations of forex inflows from arrangement with international banks.
“Also, we expect foreign investors’ sentiments to improve next year, given the recent monetary authorities’ actions in sucking financial system liquidity and ensuring naira assets are attractive, even as the government is expecting forex inflows up to $10.00 billion from different sources,” Cordros Capital noted.
NATION
The Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC) has disclosed that there are two main reasons a former Minister of Science, Technology and Innovation, Uche Nnaji, is being detained by the commission.
It also revealed that legal action was taken against the Enugu-born politician after he failed to honour several invitations extended to him through a letter referenced ICPC/HC/CSTF/GUN/GBT/T.1/VOLV16, and dated 15 May 2026.
John Odey, the spokesman of the commission in a statement on Wednesday explained that the commission later approached Federal High Court, Abuja Division, with the suit No: FHC/ABJ/CS/1160/2026) in order to effect Nnaji’s arrest after his failure to honour invitation.
Nnaji was arrested at the Akanu Ibiam International Airport, Enugu, when he boarded a private jet to Abuja.
Corroborating the development, the ICPC spokesman said Nnaji’s arrest was effected at the Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja, upon his arrival where he was led to the commission’s custody immediately.
According to him, Nnaji is being probed on forgery of academic credentials, specifically concerning a degree certificate from the University of Nigeria, Nsukka (UNN) and False National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) Discharge Certificate, which was submitted during his ministerial screening process in 2023.
The statement read, “The Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC) has arrested the immediate past Minister of Science, Technology and Innovation, Hon. Geoffrey Uchechukwu Nnaji (M), following the execution of a bench warrant issued by the Federal High Court of Nigeria.
“The arrest was effected on Wednesday, 1st July 2026 at the Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja, upon Mr. Nnaji’s arrival.
“He was apprehended with the assistance of the Department of State Services (DSS) and subsequently handed over to the ICPC for further investigation.
“The Commission had earlier extended formal invitations to the former minister through a letter referenced ICPC/HC/CSTF/GUN/GBT/T.1/VOLV16, dated 15 May 2026.
“The invitation notices were duly served to his known addresses in Abuja and Enugu, as well as via his electronic mail address.
“Despite service through multiple channels, Mr. Nnaji failed to appear for investigative interviews on the scheduled dates, necessitating further legal action.
“The legal action followed a court order granted by the Federal High Court in the Abuja Judicial Division (Suit No: FHC/ABJ/CS/1160/2026).
“The order, issued on 11 June 2026, directed the ICPC to arrest the former minister to enable investigation into allegations bordering on:
“Forgery of academic credentials, specifically concerning a degree certificate from the University of Nigeria, Nsukka (UNN); and “False National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) Discharge Certificate, which was submitted during his ministerial screening process in 2023.
“Following the arrest, Mr. Nnaji has been taken into custody at the ICPC headquarters in Abuja, where investigations are expected to continue. The Commission assures the public that the matter will be pursued diligently in accordance with the law.”
The immediate past Minister of Science and Technology, Uche Nnaji, was arrested on Wednesday at the Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja, on arrival from Enugu via a chartered flight.
Authoritative sources at the airport confirmed the arrest to PREMIUM TIMES, saying Mr Nnaji would be handed over to the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC) for interrogation.
The reported arrest comes weeks after the Federal High Court reportedly granted the ICPC permission to arrest and investigate Nnaji over the allegations.
The court also authorised the anti-graft agency to declare him wanted through newspapers, social media platforms and other media channels after the commission alleged that he repeatedly failed to honour invitations for questioning.
According to the ICPC, its application to the court followed Nnaji’s alleged refusal to appear before investigators despite several invitations relating to the forgery allegations.
The case stems from a two-year investigation published by Premium Times in October last year, which alleged that Nnaji submitted forged University of Nigeria degree and National Youth Service Corps certificates during his ministerial screening and confirmation process in 2023.
The report alleged that the documents were presented to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the Nigerian Senate, the Office of the Secretary to the Government of the Federation and the State Security Service.
According to the publication, Nnaji later acknowledged that the University of Nigeria did not issue him the degree certificate in question, a development the newspaper said corroborated its investigation.Newspapers
The former minister had previously denied the existence of the court order authorising his arrest, dismissing the publication as a “media trial.”
However, on June 18, he reportedly filed an appeal before the Court of Appeal, seeking to overturn the arrest order.
As of the time of filing this report, the ICPC had not issued an official statement confirming the reported arrest, while Nnaji’s legal team had yet to publicly respond to the latest development.
The Federal High Court in Abuja, on Tuesday, restored the bail it had earlier granted to activist and presidential candidate of the African Action Congress (AAC), Omoyele Sowore.
Sowore is facing a two-count cybercrime charge filed against him by the Department of State Services (DSS) for calling President Bola Tinubu a “criminal” in a social media post.
Trial Justice Muhammed Umar, who had earlier granted the defendant bail on self-recognisance, on June 16 revoked the bail and issued a warrant for his arrest.
The order came after Sowore failed to appear before the court for the continuation of his trial, even though he wrote a letter explaining his absence and requesting a new date.
When proceedings resumed in the case on June 22, Justice Umar ordered the remand of the defendant in Kuje prison.
Dissatisfied with the actions the court took against him, Sowore—whose legal team had initially withdrawn from the case over alleged bias by the judge—secured a new lawyer, who promptly filed a motion to restore his bail and quash the arrest warrant.
When the case came up on Tuesday, Justice Umar held that he was minded to admit the defendant to bail.
However, the court listed some conditions that had to be met before he would be released from prison custody.
Aside from granting him bail to the tune of N200 million, the court held that the defendant must produce two sureties in like sum.
The court also ordered the defendant to surrender his international passport.
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Sowore, in the application he anchored on Sections 35(4), 36(1), and 66 of the 1999 Constitution, as amended, as well as Sections 169 and 352 of the Administration of Criminal Justice Act (ACJA) 2015, insisted that the orders the court made against him were unjust and unwarranted.
The defendant had, on December 2, 2025, pleaded not guilty to the charge marked FHC/ABJ/CR/484/2025, filed against him by the Department of State Services (DSS).
The charges allege offences under Sections 24(1)(b) and 24(2)(a), (b), and (c) of the Cybercrimes (Prohibition, Prevention, Etc.) (Amendment) Act, 2024.
The offending posts, made on August 25, 2025, were in response to President Tinubu’s claim, made in Brazil, that his administration had ended corruption in Nigeria.
Angered by the posts, the DSS demanded that X Inc. (formerly Twitter) and Meta Platforms Inc. ban Sowore’s accounts and remove the posts.
The security agency also wrote to Sowore, asking him to delete the posts from all platforms.
Non-compliance with the request led to the charges.
The prosecution claims the defamatory posts were intended to cause a breakdown of law and order and to tarnish the president’s reputation.
Exhibits include printouts of the posts and the DSS letters.
X Inc. and Meta were initially co-defendants but were delisted in the amended charge.
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