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Higher food prices, forex pressures push inflation to 29%

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Food, forex pressures push inflation to 29%
• Food prices soar
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Soaring food prices and foreign exchange pressures may have pushed up push inflation rate beyond 29 per cent, it was learnt yesterday.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will today release the Inflation Report.

Intelligence reports by many economic and finance firms surveyed yesterday by The Nation showed that inflation may have risen by between 50 to 80 basis points last month, the highest since August 2005.

But, experts expressed optimism that early gains from the reforms introduced by the government would ease the pressure on Nigerians and put the economy steady path of recovery.

The increase in inflation in December 2023 indicated that average costs of basic living items rose for every month last year.

Ahead of today’s release of the inflation report by the NBS, independent consumer surveys and econometric models indicated that inflation remained unabated, although the momentum of price increases appeared to be slowing down.

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The reports indicated that inflation may rise from 28.2 per cent in November 2023 to estimated ceiling of about 29 per cent in December 2023. It had started the year with 21.8 per cent in January 2023.

Analysts at Afrinvest West Africa expected inflation at 29.0 per cent while Financial Derivatives Company (FDC) estimated current inflation at 28.7 per cent.

Experts agreed that the increase in inflation rate was due mainly to naira depreciation, foreign exchange (forex) pressure and the lingering effect of the removal of subsidy on premium motor spirit (PMS), otherwise known as petrol.

FDC noted that while December inflation will be at a record high and raises concern of Nigeria becoming an outlier, Nigeria will likely see moderation in inflation in 2024.

The Bismarck Rewane-led FDC pointed out that “inflation is estimated to decline in 2024”, noting that inflation expectations are more important than historical inflation.

“Though, inflation in Nigeria has increased consistently in 2023, many experts are projecting a significant decline in 2024. According to EIU, inflation in Nigeria is expected to fall to 23.6 per cent in 2024 and 17 per cent in 2025. These projections are not unrealistic, as Nigeria is likely to see a moderation in inflationary pressures in second half 2024,” FDC stated.

Rewane urged the government to back up its revenue reforms with increased fiscal spending and unlocking the economy from several bottlenecks.

According to him, in order to balance the reforms, government should implement two contemporaneous actions, including boosting fiscal spending to increase earnings for businesses and households and to prioritize removing the embedded structural bottlenecks that bookend extreme poverty, constrained growth, and macroeconomic instability.

“Going into 2024, it is imperative for policy communication to be coherent and consistent to avoid the unintended consequences of market reactions to policy inactions or wrong policy therapy,” Rewane advised.

Managing Director, Arthur Stevens Asset Management, Mr. Olatunde Amolegbe, said inflation may continue to rise in the early part of 2024, but this will slow down later in the year.

He said: “I think it will still rise in the first half of the year but at a slower pace since most of the issues contributing to rising inflation seems to be already factored in. The coming on stream of Dangote Refinery should reduce forex demand pressures and rising crude oil price will hopefully improve liquidity.”

He noted that food prices could moderate if farm production improves as on the back of reduced insecurity while consumer resistance on the back of lower disposable income could also contribute to slow rate of inflation growth.

Amolegbe, a former president of Chartered Institute of Stockbrokers (CIS), said: “So, to tackle inflation we need to deal with insecurity, supply chain issues, stabilize forex supply and prices and curb interest rate increases.”

Managing Director, Highcap Securities, Mr. David Adonri, said inflation will reduce in the months ahead.

He said: “Rising inflation is expected to moderate in 2024. The economy will readjust to the new price level precipitated by last year’s market reforms. Coming on stream of local refineries will reduce pressure on forex and hence reduce depreciation of the naira. Nigeria’s inflation is fueled by insecurity which depresses production and forex scarcity which escalates cost of production and imports. Addressing these issues will certainly subdue inflation.”

FDSH Group stated that it expected to see more collaboration between the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and fiscal authorities on inflation, especially in dealing with the non-monetary triggers of inflation, otherwise the bank’s efforts to squeeze liquidity will only yield negative outcomes.

The Group said: “Challenges associated with agricultural productivity, logistics bottlenecks, infrastructure deficit and activities of non-state actors in imposing charges on businesses have implications for inflation in Nigeria, and efforts must be made to address them.

“The CBN must also be aware of its limits in taming inflation using monetary policy, especially given the peculiarities of the Nigerian economy – a large informal economy, a huge population of financially excluded individuals, etc.

“Therefore, constant dialogue with fiscal authorities is required, and we believe that the process of engaging with non-monetary authorities needs to be institutionalised to ensure proper coordination.”

Cordros Capital Group outlined disinflationary trend in the second half of 2024 as the macroeconomic environment improves.

Analysts at Cordros Capital said they expected gradual phasing out of the current impact of PMS subsidy and forex reforms on the non-oil sector, higher crude oil production relative to 2023 levels amid supportive oil prices and forex supply improvement in line with the authorities’ expectations of forex inflows from arrangement with international banks.

“Also, we expect foreign investors’ sentiments to improve next year, given the recent monetary authorities’ actions in sucking financial system liquidity and ensuring naira assets are attractive, even as the government is expecting forex inflows up to $10.00 billion from different sources,” Cordros Capital noted.

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Democracy Day address: Terror financiers will pay dearly, says Tinubu

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Rising cost of living: We’re almost on the way to Venezuela – PDP Govs
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu
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…issues ultimatum to bandits, kidnappers,  their sponsors to surrender or…

President Bola Tinubu has vowed that no mercy will be shown to terror purveyors who enable the killing and kidnapping of innocent Nigerians.

He also issued an ultimatum to bandits, kidnappers and sponsors of terrorism to surrender or face the full force of the Nigerian state, disclosing that his administration had already neutralised over 13,000 terrorists in the past year alone.

Tinubu gave the warning in his national address delivered on the occasion of the country’s 27th consecutive Democracy Day celebration, his fourth as President since 2023.

According to him, although terror-related deaths had declined by 81 per cent since 2015, Friday’s Democracy Day celebration was subdued by the continued captivity of schoolchildren abducted in Oyo and Borno states.

He declared, “To bandits, kidnappers, and sponsors of terror: Surrender or face the full force of the Nigerian State.

“These windows of surrender will not remain open forever. No mercy will be shown to those who trade in the blood of Nigerians.”

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The Nigerian leader said his administration had moved beyond training with allies to precision operations on the ground.

“We have moved from training with our allies, the United States, France and other European countries, to precision targeting.

“In Arege, Borno State, we degraded ISWAP’s command centre.

Terror-related deaths are down by 81 per cent since 2015.

“Over 13,000 terrorists have been neutralised in the past year,” he stated.

Tinubu added that despite the neutralisation of terrorists, the door of rehabilitation remained open alongside the door of force.

“Over 124,000 fighters and dependents have laid down their arms since 2023 through Operation Safe Corridor,” he said.

The N5.41tn security allocation in the 2026 budget, Tinubu said, was a statement of national will to crush the current wave of terrorism, which has raged since 2009.

Beyond the budget, he said his administration had approved the recruitment of more than 50,000 new police officers and thousands of military recruits, which, he revealed, was designed to address the persistent gap between the number of security personnel and the security demands of over 230 million Nigerians.

Tinubu acknowledged that even as the country celebrates 27 years of steady democracy, this year’s festive spirit of Democracy Day was weighed down by the continued hostage situation involving school children and teachers kidnapped in Oyo and Borno states, which has now entered its fourth week.

“Though this year’s mood is dampened by the abduction of our children in Oyo and Borno, we remain hopeful for their safe return. Democracy without security is a mirage.

“That is why this administration declared a security emergency and approved the recruitment of more than 50,000 new police officers and thousands of military recruits.

“Our 2026 budget commits N5.41tn, our largest ever, to defence and security. Our administration is ever ready to do much more to secure our people,” he stated.

He called for national unity in the face of the security challenge, rejecting ethnic or religious framing of criminality and urging Nigerians to do the same.

“At a time like this, let us not assign blame or point fingers. Crime has no ethnicity.

“We must stand united and be assured that the enemies of our nation shall soon be history.

“We will triumph over terror and continue to build a more prosperous nation,” he declared.

On the intermittent power crisis of the past three years, the President explained the scale of the challenge he inherited and his response so far.

He said by 2023, the sector was “characterised by chronic generation shortfalls, an unreliable gas supply, and transmission infrastructure so fragile that it could not evacuate available power. Distribution companies were burdened by massive losses and a metering deficit of over four million.

“The result was a sector that generated less than the 13,500 megawatts installed capacity, a sector that transmitted less than it generated, distributed less than it transmitted, and collected revenue far below what it needed to sustain itself,” he added.

Tinubu said in response, he signed the Electricity Act, granting states authority to generate, transmit and distribute power, authorised the Presidential Power Sector Task Force to raise a N4tn bond to settle verified legacy debts, and directed the Rural Electrification Agency, supported by the World Bank and the African Development Bank, to deploy off-grid and mini-grid power to underserved communities, universities, markets and hospitals.

He explained, “To address the problems besetting the sector, I signed the Electricity Act, which grants states authority to generate, transmit, and distribute power.

“The Presidential Power Sector Task Force is working hard to reduce the metering deficit. It has also been authorised to raise N4tn bond to settle verified legacy debts.

“The Rural Electrification Agency, supported by the World Bank and the African Development Bank, has deployed off-grid and mini-grid power to underserved communities, universities, markets, and hospitals.

“Electricity is a democratic dividend we owe every Nigerian. We intend to deliver it.”

On the broader economy, Tinubu said federation revenues had risen, providing states and local governments with more resources, fiscal transparency had improved, and investor confidence had returned across agriculture, energy, manufacturing, technology, mining, transportation and the creative industries.

He said non-oil exports grew by 21 per cent last year, over 1,000 small and medium enterprises had been certified for export, and the National Agricultural Development Fund was deploying 10,000 tractors over five years.

However, he acknowledged that hardship persists.

“Yet, many Nigerians still face economic hardship. We remain focused on reducing inflation, expanding food production, creating jobs, improving living standards, rebuilding confidence in our economy, and creating conditions for sustainable prosperity.

“We are moving from uncertainty to stability. The next phase is about accelerating growth and ensuring the benefits are felt in every home, every community, and every region. We believe that Democracy must be felt in the pocket,” he stated.

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FULL TEXT: Tinubu’s 2026 Democracy Day speech ‎

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President Bola Ahmed Tinubu
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Today, we celebrate not only democracy but also the enduring Nigerian spirit. For 27 unbroken years, since May 29, 1999, Nigerians have chosen their leaders through the ballot, witnessed peaceful transitions of power, and resolved disagreements in courtrooms and legislative chambers—not through violence. We have experienced the longest stretch of civilian rule in our history. Our democracy is not perfect, but it is ours, and we must continue to defend and strengthen it.

‎In the coming days, Ekiti and Osun States will hold elections. I urge INEC, security agencies, and all parties to ensure these polls are peaceful and credible. Democracy fails when citizens doubt the process. To our National Assembly, Judiciary, the Press, and Civil Society: you are the guardrails of our republic. Criticise me, disagree with me, but never stop believing in Nigeria.

‎To our young people: Nigeria is your home and your future. Build here, code here, work here, and vote here. Every great nation was built by those who stayed to solve problems, not by those who abandoned ship.

‎To our armed forces, police, and intelligence services: Nigeria salutes your sacrifice. To our traditional rulers, faith leaders, and community heads: thank you for your support of peace and reconciliation. The government cannot do it alone.

‎Today, we honour the resilience of Nigerians who refused to surrender their faith in freedom, and the courage of those who stood firm against intimidation. We pay tribute to patriots who endured persecution, imprisonment, exile, and even death so that future generations could enjoy democracy. I salute labour leaders, journalists, activists, students, women, professionals, political leaders, and soldiers—both those who have passed and those still with us—for their patriotic contributions.

‎Though this year’s mood is dampened by the abduction of our children in Oyo and Borno, we remain hopeful for their safe return. Democracy without security is a mirage. That is why this administration declared a security emergency and approved the recruitment of more than 50,000 new police officers and thousands of military recruits. Our 2026 budget commits N5.41 trillion—our largest ever—to defence and security. Our administration is ever ready to do much more to secure our people.

‎We have moved from training with our allies, the United States, France and other European countries, to precision targeting. In Arege, Borno State, we degraded ISWAP’s command centre. Terror-related deaths are down by 81% since 2015. Over 13,000 terrorists have been neutralised in the past year. But we also keep the door of surrender open. Over 124,000 fighters and dependents have laid down their arms since 2023 through Operation Safe Corridor.



‎To bandits, kidnappers, and sponsors of terror: Surrender or face the full force of the Nigerian State. These windows of surrender will not remain open forever. No mercy will be shown to those who trade in the blood of Nigerians.

‎At a time like this, let us not assign blame or point fingers. Crime has no ethnicity. We must stand united and be assured that the enemies of our nation shall soon be history. We will triumph over terror and continue to build a more prosperous nation.

‎June 12 occupies a sacred place in our national memory. It represents more than an election; it is a defining chapter in our story. We remember Chief M.K.O. Abiola, who won a pan-Nigerian mandate transcending ethnicity and religion. We remember Alhaja Kudirat Abiola.

‎We also remember Chief Gani Fawehinmi, Chief Bola Ige, Chief Alfred Rewane, Pa Abraham Adesanya, Chief Anthony Enahoro, Alhaji Balarabe Musa, Commodore Dan Suleiman, Dr Beko Ransome-Kuti, Frank Kokori, Arthur Nwankwo, Chima Ubani, Shehu Musa Yar’Adua, and the many other heroes and heroines of democracy whose sacrifices helped secure the freedoms we enjoy today.

‎As beneficiaries of their struggle, we have a duty to strengthen and deepen the democratic institutions for which they fought. The greatest tribute we can pay is to build a Nigeria where freedom is protected, justice is upheld, opportunity is expanded, and government is accountable.

‎June 12, 1993, revealed the possibility of a true Nigerian nation. The heroes of June 12 secured political freedom. Our challenge is to secure economic freedom. Democracy must be felt in the quality of people’s lives—in opportunities for youth, in prosperous farmers, successful entrepreneurs, and the dignity of our workers.


‎The reforms we are undertaking were not chosen for ease, but for necessity. Three years ago, our public finances were under severe strain, investment was discouraged, and economic uncertainty threatened our future. We chose to act, embracing reforms to advance Nigeria’s economic freedom.

‎Since 2023, our reforms have restored stability and credibility to economic management. Federation revenues have risen, providing states and local governments with more resources for infrastructure, education, healthcare, and security. Fiscal transparency has improved, leakage has been reduced, and public funds are better directed to national priorities. Investor confidence has returned, with investments in agriculture, energy, manufacturing, technology, mining, transportation, and the creative industries growing.

‎Domestic refining capacity has increased, strengthening energy security and reducing our reliance on imported petroleum products.

‎By 2023, when we came on board, the electricity sector was characterised by chronic generation shortfalls, an unreliable gas supply, and transmission infrastructure so fragile that it could not evacuate available power. Distribution companies were burdened by massive losses and a metering deficit of over four million. Worst of all, the value chain was drowning in legacy debt. The result was a sector that generated less than the 13,500 Megawatts installed capacity, a sector that transmitted less than it generated, distributed less than it transmitted and collected revenue far below what it needed to sustain itself.

‎To address the problems besetting the sector, I signed the Electricity Act, which grants states authority to generate, transmit, and distribute power. The Presidential Power Sector Task Force is working hard to reduce the metering deficit. It has also been authorised to raise N4 trillion bond to settle verified legacy debts. The Rural Electrification Agency, supported by the World Bank and the African Development Bank, has deployed off-grid and mini-grid power to underserved communities, universities, markets, and hospitals. Electricity is a democratic dividend we owe every Nigerian. We intend to deliver it.

‎Across the country, infrastructure projects are connecting producers to markets and creating opportunities for enterprise and employment. The National Agricultural Development Fund is deploying 10,000 tractors over five years. Over 1,000 SMEs have been certified for export. Non-oil exports grew by 21% last year.

‎Yet, many Nigerians still face economic hardship. We remain focused on reducing inflation, expanding food production, creating jobs, improving living standards, rebuilding confidence in our economy, and creating conditions for sustainable prosperity.

‎We are moving from uncertainty to stability. The next phase is about accelerating growth and ensuring the benefits are felt in every home, every community, and every region. We believe that Democracy must be felt in the pocket.

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‎Recognising that democracy is undermined when people do not feel its impact, my administration has sought financial autonomy for our 774 local councils. A fundamental challenge to our nation’s advancement has been ineffective local government administration. The insecurity we are addressing is partly due to the collapse of grassroots governance. The Renewed Hope Agenda is about ensuring that all Nigerians benefit from governance.

‎Every generation has a defining responsibility. The generation of our founding fathers secured independence—the generation of June 12 secured democracy. Our generation must secure prosperity.

‎Let us move forward together—rejecting division, cynicism, and despair; embracing unity, hope, and confidence. Let us build a Nigeria united by a common purpose, strengthened by diversity, where justice is accessible, liberty is secure, and opportunity is abundant.

‎Among the architects of modern democratic Nigeria, we honour General Shehu Musa Yar’Adua for his vision of national partnership. In recognition of his contributions, the Federal Government has approved the revitalisation and renaming of the completed Institute of Petroleum Studies, Kaduna, as the General Shehu Musa Yar’Adua University of Geological Sciences and Engineering Technology.

‎I am also pleased to announce national awards to the following Nigerians, who suffered persecution, endured indignities, exile, incarceration, and, at times, solitary confinement, so that we have democracy today.

‎Barrister Ayoka Lawani

‎Tunde Fagbenle

‎Oladele Alake

‎Olatunji Bello

‎Louis Odion

‎Segun Babatope

‎Sam Omatseye

‎Sir Ademola Osinubi

‎Bola Bolawole

‎Lade Bonuola

‎Femi Kusa

‎Debo Adeniran

‎Chief Ayo Opadokun

‎Chief Ralph Obiora

‎Ose Osayande

‎Barrister Osa Director

‎Prof. Sylvester Odion-Akhaine

‎Dr Arthur Nwankwo (Posthumous)

‎Dr Osagie Obayuwana

‎Dr Joe Okei-Odumakin

‎Barrister Titus Mann

‎Joe Igbokwe

‎Richard Akinnola

‎Ben Charles-Obi (Posthumous)

‎George Mbah

‎Dr Niran Malaolu

‎Major-General Ishola Williams (rtd)

‎Femi Aborisade

‎Jenkins Alumona

‎Gbemiga Ogunleye

‎Muyiwa Adekeye

‎Babajide Kolade-Otitoju

‎Ike Okonta

‎We also recognise the soldier-democrats of the June 12 struggle:

‎Major General MA Garba

‎Brigadier General Lawal Jaafaru Isa

‎Col Umar Farouk Ahmed;

‎Col Sambo Dasuki;

‎Col Lawan Gwadabe;

‎Brigadier Jonathan Ndam Temlong

‎Col Musa Shehu;

‎Major General Chris Eze;

‎Major General Harris Dzarma;

‎Col Isa Jibrin;

‎Maj. General Joseph Oshanupin;

‎Col Olusegun Oloruntoba, Olugbede of Gbede Kingdom)

‎Lieutenant Colonel Happy Kefas Bulus

‎Col J Okai;

‎Col Emmanuel Ndubueze;

‎Lt Col Yakubu Muazu

‎Brigadier Yahaya Abubakar, the Current Etsu Nupe, who is already the holder of the CFR title.

‎The honours list will be released in the next few days.

‎Fellow Nigerians, 27 years ago, many doubted democracy would survive here because of our diversity. Today, our diversity sustains our democracy. The road ahead is steep. But June 12 reminds us: Nigerians do not break. We bend, we bleed, but we do not break.

‎Let us renew our covenant: That the labours of our heroes past shall never be in vain, and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from this land.

‎May God bless the heroes of our democracy. May God bless the Federal Republic of Nigeria. May God continue to bless us all.

‎Happy Democracy Day.

‎BOLA AHMED TINUBU, GCFR

‎President and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, Federal Republic of Nigeria

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Mild drama as policemen, court bailiff storm Nwobodo’s Amechi Country home over Investor’s lawsuit

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There was a mild drama in Amechi Awkunanaw, the native home of the former Governor of old Anambra State, Chief Jim Nwobodo, on Thursday morning as they tried to serve a court process.

A team from the Magistrate Court Enugu South, backed by a team of armed police officers, arrived to serve a court summons on the elder statesman’s wife, Patricia Nwobodo.

The dramatic encounter highlights an escalating legal dispute involving a prominent investor, Chief Basil Kenechukwu Ogbuanu.

​The operation follows several failed attempts by court officials to deliver the legal documents to Patricia Nwobodo through regular administrative means.

Frustrated by the inability to effect service, High Court authorities took the unusual step of requesting a formidable security escort. The move was deemed necessary to ensure the safety of the court bailiff and to guarantee that judicial orders could be carried out at the high-profile country home.

​The roots of the confrontation stem from a bitter legal battle between Mrs. Patricia Nwobodo and Chief Basil Kenechukwu Ogbuanu, a well-known investor in the region.

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The civil matter follows the recent collapse of a criminal charge that had previously been brought against Ogbuanu at the instance of the Nwobodos. Following his clearance by the courts, Ogbuanu initiated the current legal action, claiming the initial criminal prosecution was a product of pure malice and falsehood.

​Seeking redress for what he describes as a calculated attempt to damage his reputation and investment interests, Ogbuanu filed the suit to hold Mrs. Nwobodo accountable.

However, the progression of the case stalled due to the court’s repeated inability to officially serve her with the originating processes. This procedural bottleneck ultimately forced the Enugu State High Court to employ more assertive measures on Thursday.

​The security convoy arrived at the main gates of the Nwobodo country home in Amechi Awkunanaw at exactly 8:47 AM, taking household staff and local residents by surprise.

The scale of the security deployment signaled how seriously the judiciary viewed the persistent evasion of court processes.

​With the perimeter of the property secured, a small group consisting of the court bailiff, a female police officer, and an accompanying policeman stepped forward. They entered the main building of the estate to locate Mrs. Nwobodo and execute the court’s directive. Outside, the remaining heavily armed officers maintained a strict cordon, keeping an eye on the developing situation.

​For nearly two hours, an anxious silence hung over the Amechi community as the team remained inside the Nwobodo residence. Journalists who had trailed the security convoy observed the developments from a safe distance outside the gates.

The prolonged duration of the exercise inside the house heightened speculation among onlookers that the team was encountering significant resistance.

​When the bailiff and the two officers finally emerged just about 11:09AM, the mood outside visibly shifted. Observers noted that the expressions on the faces of the court official and the police personnels were tense and strained as it was alleged that the police team received orders from the State Command Headquarters to immediately vacate the premises of Jim Nwobodo. No immediate official statement was issued by the team as they made their way back to their waiting vehicles.

​Adding to the tension, journalists monitoring the area noticed a man loitering near the perimeter of the property who was making urgent phone calls.

The individual, whose ties to the household could not be immediately confirmed, appeared to be monitoring the movements of the court officials. His body language suggested a rapidly changing security situation on the ground.

​As journalists drew closer to understand what was happening, they overheard the individual calling for what appeared to be immediate security reinforcement or a “backup.”

​Fearing they might be caught in an ensuing clash, the journalists covering the event made a swift decision to leave the vicinity immediately. The media corps evacuated the Amechi Awkunanaw axis to avoid further trouble, leaving the final minutes of the standoff unrecorded. The hasty retreat left the journalists unable to verify the ultimate outcome of the two-hour operation.

​Consequently, it remains unconfirmed whether Mrs. Nwobodo was successfully served with the court papers or if the bailiff had to retreat without success.

Furthermore, journalists could not ascertain if the court intended for a personal delivery or if the operation was an attempt at substituted service, such as pasting the documents on the property.

The coming days at the Enugu State High Court will likely reveal whether the dramatic intervention succeeded in moving the investor’s lawsuit forward.

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