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Only foreign borrowing can save Naira, clear CBN debts – EIU

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The Naira
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International business research firm, Economist Intelligence Unit, has said that the Central Bank of Nigeria does not have the liquidity to support the naira as of now.

It stated this in its latest Country Report on Nigeria, which was published on Friday.

The CBN unified segments of the country’s foreign exchange market on June 14, 2023, which resulted in a significant depreciation of the local currency.

The naira weakened by 36.56% to 632.77/$ on the day the CBN unified the forex market from 463.38/$ at the official market.

The naira has struggled against the dollar since then and it worsened in February following a second devaluation, which is about 45 per cent according to analysts in an attempt to close the gap with the parallel market rate.

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That makes it the second-worst-performing currency in the world, after the Lebanese pound.

In the report, EIU said that the CBN may need to resort to foreign borrowing to support the naira and fulfil its foreign exchange obligations.

It stated, “Our view is that it will take foreign borrowing to rebuild the CBN’s buffers, fully clear a backlog of unmet foreign exchange orders and restore confidence. This is probably only achievable towards the end of 2024. In mid-January Nigeria took out a $3.3bn loan from the African Export-Import Bank, secured on oil revenue in a so-called crude oil prepayment facility. This follows a $1bn loan from the African Development Bank in November, and another $1.5bn is being sought from the World Bank.

“Falling risk premiums on government international bonds make tapping the international capital market another viable (albeit costly) option once US interest rates start to fall from the second half of 2024.

“For most of this year, the naira will be highly volatile, leading to regulatory erraticism that can affect businesses, especially those holding foreign currency.

“The CBN lacks the liquidity to support the naira itself; out of $33bn in foreign reserves, a large share (estimated at nearly $20bn), is committed to various derivative deals. The CBN recently imposed restrictions on oil companies repatriating export earnings abroad, and there is a risk of wider convertibility limits being imposed until the currency stabilises.”

Also, it was revealed that the Federal Government was greatly incentivised to borrow from the CBN following the return of fuel subsidy.

In the report, whose briefing sheet was edited by Benedict Craven, EIU said that with the return of fuel subsidy, which was larger than the previous one, the FG had a strong reason to want to borrow from the apex bank.

In December 2023, the National Assembly approved the securitisation of the outstanding debit balance of N7.3tn of the ways and means advance in the consolidated revenue fund of the Federal Government. Ways and Means is a loan facility through which the CBN finances the Federal Government’s budget shortfalls.

The report said, “Market reforms under Mr (Bola) Tinubu were intended to attract investment but do not constitute a coherent plan. His two flagship policies, the elimination of petrol subsidies and the liberalisation of the exchange rate have an inner contradiction. As Nigeria imports virtually all its fuel, devaluations of the naira, the latest being a 45 per cent drop in February, should be reflected in the pump price.

“However, owing to the threat of industrial action, there has been little movement since June, despite the naira having weakened from N461:$1 in May 2023 to N1,600:$1 in late February 2024. This indicates the return of a (large) subsidy. Denying this publicly, the government has a strong incentive to turn to the Central Bank of Nigeria for financing to cover the fiscal cost.

“Deficit monetisation and high inflation will undermine the currency. A possibility is that monetary policy will be tightened to a point at which foreign investors view the naira more favourably.”

According to the report, although the CBN raised its policy rate in February, President Tinubu has expressed an aversion to high interest rates.

“As inflation has been allowed to rise to a level at which a positive real short-term interest rate would create a significant rise in unemployment—adding another policy¬ induced element to economic hardship—we assume that politics will prevent this from happening. The CBN’s independence has been heavily eroded in recent years; because fiscal firepower is so limited, the government will continue to rely on monetary policy to achieve job-creation and development objectives,” it said.

EIU revised its 2024 economic growth forecast for Nigeria from 2.2 per cent to 2.5 per cent, premised on higher than previously expected crude output and earlier than expected production from the Dangote refinery, which is expected to provide some relief although fuel import is expected to continue its dominance.

“The new, 650,000-barrel/day Dangote mega-refinery is another possible circuit breaker. The facility is gearing up for its first fuel exports, to be followed by cargoes to the domestic market. In theory, the facility can meet all domestic needs but petrol subsidies make it unclear whether doing so will be profitable (let alone profit-maximising). In any case, Nigeria will continue to depend on fuel imports for most of the year as the refinery ramps up output,” the report said.

Describing the implementation of the twin policies of floating the naira and fuel subsidy removal as hasty, the EIU said, “Mr Tinubu has embarked on the biggest economic shake-up in a generation, rapidly rolling out unpopular market reforms and dismantling vehicles for patronage and corruption. Upon coming to power, Mr Tinubu quickly moved to deregulate petrol prices and float the currency. In theory, these reforms are needed to put Nigeria on a higher growth path, but implementation has been hasty and inflation has been allowed to rise to decades-long highs. As the crisis is distinctly policy-induced, there is a serious risk of mass protests and strikes.

“Given the potential threat of industrial action on a scale not seen since 2012, the government has been forced to backtrack in some areas, notably on petrol subsidies. Attempts to stem the decline in the currency have become more desperate, and we expect the policy to become increasingly erratic, particularly in the early part of the forecast period, as the need to stabilise prices takes on an existential dimension for the government.”

The report noted that the Monetary Policy Rate would peak at 23.75 per cent this year, currently standing at 22.75 per cent.

Inflation is projected to also likely to continue climbing for the first half of the year driven by the hefty devaluation of the naira in February.

“We expect a full-year rate of 30.3 per cent, which includes some disinflation in the second half of the year,” EIU said.

Meanwhile, it projected that the Nigerian currency would depreciate below 2,000/$ before the year runs out.

Highlighting top concerns and risks to its forecast, EIU said that if President Bola Tinubu moves too fast on his market reforms, it may lead to mass unrest with a very high impact.

The African Development Bank recently raised similar concerns, following the persistent increase in the prices of food items.

The AfDB sounded the warning in its macroeconomic performance and outlook for 2024.

It cautioned that an increase in fuel and commodity prices occasioned by currency depreciation or subsidy removal in Nigeria, Angola, Kenya and Ethiopia could trigger internal conflicts.

It stated, “Internal conflicts and violence could also result from rising prices for fuel and other commodities due to weaker domestic currencies and reforms.”

According to the AfDB, other risks include social unrest forcing the government to make concessions on its reforms, strikes bringing the economy to a halt and the activities of terrorists spreading from the North-East to Central Nigeria.

Meanwhile, the apex bank boss, Dr Olayemi Cardoso, in February revealed that the central bank would not be extending facilities to the Federal Government until it fulfils its outstanding obligations to it.

“I’m pleased to note the fiscal authorities’ efforts in discontinuing ways and means advances. This is also in compliance with section (38) of the CBN Act (2007).

“The bank is no longer at liberty to grant further ways and means advances to the Federal Government until the outstanding balance as of December 31, 2023, is fully settled. The bank must strictly adhere to the law limiting advances under ways and means to five per cent of the previous year’s revenue,” he noted.

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Corruption turning Nigerian Courts to ‘market stalls’ — Retired Justice Augie

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Justice Amina Adamu Augie
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A retired justice of the Supreme Court, Amina Adamu Augie, has warned that corruption within Nigeria’s judiciary and legal profession is eroding public confidence in the administration of justice and transforming the courts from institutions of impartiality into what she described as “market stalls.”

Speaking in Abuja during the 40th anniversary celebration of the Nigerian Law School Class of 1986, popularly known as the Centennial Class, Augie said corrupt practices involving judges, lawyers and court officials had weakened the credibility of the justice system and damaged the public’s perception of the legal profession.

The retired justice called for practitioners found guilty of misconduct to be punished, regardless of their seniority, influence or professional standing.

Augie, who taught at the Nigerian Law School before beginning her judicial career, identified corruption, political interference, inadequate funding and delays in the administration of justice as some of the most serious challenges facing Nigeria’s judiciary.

“The third, which I will not dress up, is corruption. Where it exists on the Bench, at the Bar, or in the Registry, it poisons everything by turning the one place that a citizen should find impartiality into one more market stall,” she said.

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She nevertheless cautioned against the blanket condemnation of the judiciary, stressing that the majority of judges and lawyers remained honest, hardworking and poorly remunerated.

According to her, the justice system must be designed in a way that protects judicial officers and other legal practitioners from undue pressure and temptation, rather than exposing them to conditions that make misconduct easier.

Augie expressed particular concern about the conduct of some senior members of the legal profession, saying their actions had contributed substantially to the decline in public trust in the courts and the wider justice system.

“Have we kept faith with them? In part, YES, in part, NO. Public trust has paid the price. The public today is quick to believe the worst of lawyers, and sorry to say, not always without cause,” she said.

“When a few senior members of the profession have been found to traffic in the corruption of justice, the damage is not to them alone; it stains the gown we all wear.”

She said rebuilding confidence in the legal system would require more than public relations campaigns or efforts to improve the image of the judiciary. In her view, the profession must demonstrate a willingness to discipline its members openly and fairly, without being intimidated by their status.

“Restoring that trust is not a matter of better public relations. It is a matter of conduct and a profession willing to discipline its own, without fear or favor, no matter how senior the offender may be in the legal profession,” she said.

The retired justice reminded lawyers that their foremost duty was to the court and the administration of justice, not merely to the clients who retained them. She said professional responsibility demanded honesty, candour, respect for judicial authority and commitment to the rule of law.

Augie urged lawyers to reject attempts to manipulate court proceedings, manufacture or distort evidence, delay cases unnecessarily or secure favourable judgments through improper influence.

She also warned that corruption could not be addressed in isolation from the broader conditions under which the judiciary operates. Inadequate funding, she said, posed a serious threat to judicial independence because a court that depended on the executive for basic infrastructure and operational needs could not be regarded as completely autonomous.

“A Judiciary that must beg the executive for a Courtroom roof, vehicles, or even the Judges’ entitlements is not fully free; financial autonomy for the Courts is not a perk for Justices and Judges, but a guarantee for litigants,” she said.

Augie further criticised the delays and high costs that continue to make litigation inaccessible to many Nigerians. She described delay as the “chronic disease” of the country’s justice system and said it had weakened public confidence in the courts.

Drawing on her experience at the Supreme Court, she said the apex court was burdened by an excessive number of appeals, including disputes that should ordinarily have been resolved at lower levels of the judicial system.

She recalled an appeal concerning the burning of 12 goats that eventually reached the Supreme Court, despite the enormous workload already confronting the court.

According to her, constitutional amendments were needed to narrow the categories of cases that could be taken to the apex court. Such reforms, she said, would enable Supreme Court justices to focus on matters involving significant constitutional, legal and national questions.

Augie also condemned the repeated failure of government authorities to comply with court orders. She cited the prolonged detention of former National Security Adviser Sambo Dasuki and Islamic Movement leader Ibrahim El-Zakzaky, despite judicial directives ordering their release.

She said the disobedience of court orders by public officials weakened the authority of the judiciary and sent a dangerous message that compliance with the law was optional for those in power.

Reflecting on the development of Nigeria’s justice system over the past four decades, Augie acknowledged that progress had been made, particularly since the country’s return to democratic rule in 1999. However, she expressed disappointment that justice remained slow, expensive and beyond the reach of many citizens.

She referred to Nigeria’s ranking of 120th out of 143 countries in the 2025 World Justice Project Rule of Law Index, describing the position as an uncomfortable indication of the country’s institutional weaknesses and the continuing challenges facing its justice system.

Augie called for comprehensive reforms to strengthen judicial independence, improve access to justice, modernise case management, reduce delays and restore ethical standards across the legal profession.

She urged members of the Class of 1986, many of whom now hold senior positions in the judiciary, government and legal profession, to use their influence to defend the rule of law and rebuild public confidence in the courts.

“If Governments obey the Courts, if its Judgments are enforced, if justice comes within a reasonable time and within reach of the poor, if the profession upholds its integrity and disciplines its own, Nigeria would be better positioned to secure its future”, she said. (Weekend Trust)

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NDLEA intercepts Saudi-bound cannabis in palm oil keg, N6.98bn tramadol shipment

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Female Lawyer nabbed with hard drugs as NDLEA raids criminal hideouts in Abia
NDLEA operatives
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The National Drug Law Enforcement Agency (NDLEA) has intercepted 8,725 kilogrammes of tramadol powder worth more than ₦6.98 billion at the Apapa Port in Lagos and arrested a female passenger allegedly attempting to smuggle cannabis to Saudi Arabia.

The passenger, Fatimah Ahmad, was arrested on Friday, October 16, during the outward clearance of an Ethiopian Airlines flight to Jeddah via Addis Ababa at the Mallam Aminu Kano International Airport, Kano State.

The agency said operatives found 511.75 grammes of cannabis concealed in a gallon of palm oil she was carrying.

According to the NDLEA, Ahmad told officers that her cousin, Abubakar Yahaya, had given her the gallon. Yahaya was subsequently arrested at the airport car park.

The agency’s Director of Media and Advocacy, Femi Babafemi, disclosed the arrests and seizures in a statement on Sunday, detailing a series of anti-drug operations across several states.

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At the Apapa Port, NDLEA operatives, working with the Nigeria Customs Service and other agencies, uncovered the tramadol shipment on October 2 during an examination of cargo declared as maize starch.

A confirmatory test at the agency’s forensic laboratory identified the substance as tramadol hydrochloride powder. When separated from its concealment on October 14, the shipment comprised 349 bags with a gross weight of 8,725 kilogrammes, valued at more than ₦6.98 billion.

At the Tin Can Port, also in Lagos, officers discovered 55 kilogrammes of Canadian Loud, valued at ₦165 million, hidden in a Toyota Sienna vehicle inside a 40-foot container on October 12.

The agency also reported the arrest of Elizabeth Chidera Kalu at Idumota Market on October 14, with 10,600 ampoules of diazepam injection and 6,500 tablets of Molly recovered from her store.

In separate operations in Mushin, two men, Idowu Daudu and Ahmed Oniyinde, were arrested on October 15 with 59.95 kilogrammes and 61.23 kilogrammes of skunk, respectively.

Another operation along Iyana Oba led to the interception of a truck allegedly carrying illicit drugs from Trade Fair Market. The NDLEA said 18,000 pills of tramadol 250mg were found in cartons labelled as Rambo insecticide. The suspects arrested were identified as Tajudeen Adeduntan, a loading manager, and his assistant, Azeez Sikiru.

In Edo State, six suspects were arrested during raids in Warake, Ivhiaro and Ewe/Irue communities in Owan East Local Government Area between October 15 and 16.

Those arrested included 85-year-old Grace Ehimeka, who was allegedly found with 179 kilogrammes of skunk, and Ayo Aigberadion, 53, with 220.8 kilogrammes. Other suspects were allegedly found with varying quantities of cannabis and other substances, including tramadol, Swinol and diazepam.

In Ondo State, the agency said operatives raided a cannabis farm in Okemoro Isinbode camp forest on October 17, destroying 7,500 kilogrammes of skunk cultivated on three hectares of land and arresting five suspects.

The operation also yielded 92 bags of skunk weighing 1,267 kilogrammes, 11 kilogrammes of cannabis seeds and three kilogrammes of fresh stems, bringing the total weight of the recovered exhibits to 1,281 kilogrammes.

In another operation in Owo, officers tracked 53-year-old Okunebe Ndidi to a hideout in Ameyinti on October 16 and recovered 25 bags of cannabis weighing 375 kilogrammes.

In Bauchi State, NDLEA operatives intercepted a Volkswagen Golf wagon at Ragwam village in Katagum Local Government Area on October 14, recovering 894,800 tramadol capsules and Exol-5 tablets from Shamsu Garba, 35.

The agency also said officers on patrol along the Bauchi-Gombe road recovered 291 blocks of cannabis weighing 265 kilogrammes from an abandoned vehicle at Tudun Natsira village. (Channels TV)

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Bauchi Agency CEO, 4 children die in road accident

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Late BASHCMA Executive Secretary Ibrahim Ladan Duguri
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Alhaji Ibrahim Ladan Duguri, the Executive Secretary of the Bauchi State Health Contributory Management Agency (BASHCMA), has lost his life alongside those of four of his children in an accident at Yalwan Duguri in Alkaleri Local Government Area of the State.

Governor Bala Mohammed, who confirmed the tragedy, expressed profound sorrow and deep grief.

The governor described the death of Alhaji Ibrahim Ladan Duguri as a monumental loss to Bauchi, particularly the health sector, “where he distinguished himself through dedication, commitment, and an unwavering passion for improving access to healthcare services for the people”.

In his condolence message signed by his Special Adviser on Media and Publicity, Mukhtar Gidado, the governor equally saddened by the tragic circumstances surrounding the incident and extends his heartfelt sympathy to the immediate family of the deceased, the Duguri Emirate Council, friends, associates, colleagues, and the entire people of Bauchi over the loss.

He also prayed for the full recovery, strength, and comfort of Suleiman, one the deceased’s son who reportedly survived the accident .

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Mohammed said, “As Executive Secretary of BASHCMA, the deceased played an important role in advancing the state’s health contributory management system and supporting efforts to make healthcare more accessible to the people, especially the less privileged. His dedication was also evident in his contributions to the state’s medical team during pilgrimage exercises in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, where his commitment to the health and well-being of pilgrims was widely valued.

“Beyond his professional accomplishments, Alhaji Ibrahim Ladan Duguri was a close personal friend, and classmate of Governor Bala Mohammed. His death, therefore, represents not only the loss of a valued public servant but also the painful departure of a beloved family member and trusted companion whose life was marked by service, loyalty, and dedication to humanity.”

He acknowledged that no words can adequately express the pain and anguish of the bereaved family at this difficult moment.

Mohammed prayed that Almighty Allah, in His infinite Mercy, would forgive the shortcomings of the deceased, accept their good deeds, and grant Alhaji Ibrahim Ladan Duguri and his beloved children eternal rest in Aljannatul Firdaus.

The governor called on all well-meaning citizens of Bauchi to remember the bereaved family in their prayers and to offer them the necessary compassion, and solidarity during this moment of profound grief.

The funeral prayer for the deceased will be conducted at the palace of the District Head of Yalwan Duguri by 11:00am, on Sunday.

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