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Afrinvest banking sector report shows banks’ resilience despite economic downturn

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The 2022 Afrinvest Banking Sector Report has shown that commercial banks recorded modest improvement in all regulatory indicators despite daunting economic challenges.

The report, presented by Deputy Group Managing Director, Afrinvest West Africa, Mr Victor Ndukauba, showed that the banks beat all the prudential guideline limits set by the Central Bank of Nigeria, showing resilience and strength during the year.

Its presentation was made at the launch of the 17th edition of the Nigerian Banking Sector Report and unveiling of Optimus, Afrinvest’s digital investment app, in Lagos on Wednesday night.

The occasion also marked the announcement of Afrinvest’s new subsidiaries and expansion of its leadership team as well as the unveil of Afrinvest’s refreshed logo(brand identity)

The report’s assessment of CBN’s financial stability indicators showed that Industry Liquidity(Liquidity Ratio) and Non-Performing Loan ratios both improved by 130 basis points(up) and 75bps(down), respectively, to 42.6 per cent and 4.95 per cent.

Although, the Capital Adequacy Ratio(CAR: 14.1 per cent) underperformed the June 2021 level by 140bps, all the indicators beat the prudential guideline limits of 30 per cent(LR), five per cent(NPLs), and 13.0 per cent(CAR), respectively, despite myriads of challenges in the business environment.

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The report said the improvement is expected to be sustained over the coming years.

It explained that the fiscal challenges presented by weak Federal Government earnings have contributed to the muddling of monetary policy and strong use of Cash Reserve Ratio debits as a subtle strategy, in our view, to compensate for the inflationary effect of ballooned overdraft to the government.

It insists that in increasing its developmental financing role, especially in agriculture financing, the CBN risks crowding out banks and private sector financing, which is more effective in de-risking the sector and incentivising growth without moral hazards.

“Importantly, the weak economic growth has robbed banks of the dividend of large and youthful demographics. Over the last 10 years to 2021, real Gross Domestic Product has grown by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.9 per cent compared to 2.3 per cent CAGR for the population.

In line with the decline in income level, poverty has risen to 40.1 per cent based on national standards of annual real per capita expenditure threshold of N137,430

” For banks, this reality means that upscaling would be less efficient than in an economy where growth exceeds population expansion. Not surprising, Nigeria’s financial depth is weak as is for countries with high fertility rates and a fragile economic base.,” it said

To turn the tide, the BSR recommended that critical reforms be undertaken as matter of urgency to avoid a repeat of the negative trends seen in the last decade.

“Some other measures advised include the tapering of fiscal deficit financing – credit to the government – to check money supply expansion, alignment of rates across windows and the adoption of market reflective forex rate via the crawling peg regime. We believe that the outcome for banks in the coming decade would rely on the policy actions taken today to address the issues raised,” it said.

On exchange rate management, the report said CBN’s strategy (differentiated rates across market segments and capital control) failed the litmus test over the reviewed period, as anticipated in the 2021 report.

It said the value of the Naira depreciated further by 5.6 per cent and 23.2 per cent to N436.50/$1.00 and N712.00$1.00 (on 19/09/2022) at the NAFEX window and parallel market, respectively. It sated that  near-term improvement in the exchange rate is not in sight, given forex supply constraints due to the self-inflicted injuries in Nigeria’s oil & gas sector (the largest source of FX accretion).

On the economy, the report said that in 2021, the Nigerian economy recovered markedly from the pandemic-induced strain of the prior year.

“Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 3.4 per cent (2020: -1.9 per cent), beating our projection by 0.4ppts. The recovery was mainly driven by the expansion of activities in the non-oil sector (up 4.4 per cent), while the oil sector remained in a recession. This growth momentum was sustained into 2022 albeit with a wider divergence between the oil and non-oil sectors.,” it said.

The report stated that, given the resilient half-year 2022 performance and expectation of sustained positive performance by key non-oil activity sectors in third and fourth quarters of the year,  it reviewed the 2022 baseline growth forecast upward by 40bps to 3.3 per cent.

However, it maintained that growth momentum in the medium term would remain short of the level that can meaningfully lift the average well-being of the citizenry due to persistent domestic and external headwinds.

It said oil price level, domestic inflation rate has remained persistently high, averaging 14.3 per cent in the last six years.

In first half of 2022, headline inflation averaged 16.7 per cent owing to the impact of the Russia- Ukraine war on input prices, continued forex illiquidity, and structural challenges. Based on the World Bank estimate, the stinging fang of the elevated price level would drag five million more Nigerians into extreme poverty (to reach 95.1m) by 2022 year-end.

The report suggested  that only concerted fiscal and monetary policy efforts targeted at resolving insecurity challenges, optimising exchange rate management, fixing structural loopholes, and curbing reckless fiscal spending would resolve the high inflation quagmire.

It however, acknowledged that the CBN has taken the lead in the efforts at curtailing the runaway inflation rate as seen in the back-to-back hike of the Monetary Policy Rate in May, July, and September 2022 to 15.5 per cent.

On the fiscal policy front, it said the divergence between the share of FG’s recurrent (debt & non-debt combined) and capital expenditure component has widened significantly in the last decade.

“Sadly, economic growth and fiscal stability have suffered the biggest impact from the worsened divergence. Before then, we observed a strong nexus between capital expenditure performance and growth in the decade to 2009. From 1999 to 2009, the divergence between the size of recurrent and capital expenditure averaged 48.5 per cent,” it stated.

It explained that over this period, GDP growth (average: 7.0 per cent) out- paced population growth (2.6 per cent p.a.) significantly. This trend dovetailed into a strong labour market perfor- mance as the unemployment rate eased steadily to about 5.0 per cent by 2009 year-end, according to NBS data.

Also, GDP per capita surged by 279.9 per cent to $1,891, while fiscal condition ended the decade strong as FG revenue to expenditure ratio printed at 76.5 per cent (2009) with public debt stock (N3.8tn) to GDP ratio of 7.5 per cent. Sadly, this trend has completely reversed over the last decade.

It explained that between 2010 and 2021, the divergence between the share of recurrent and capital expenditure budgets widened to 74.3 per cent on average.

“As a result, the share of capital expenditure in the total budget has dropped to an average of 18.9 per cent per annum. When examined from 2015, the divergence is wider at an average of 75.3 per cent, while the average share of capital expenditure in the total budget printed lower at 18.5 per cent This suggests that the economy’s average propensity to consume (represented by recurrent expenditure) has increased by more than 20.0 per cent in the last decade,” the report said.

In his comments, the Group Managing Director, Afrinvest West Africa, Ike Chioke, said Nigerians should prepare for reforms that would turn the economy around.

He said that looking ahead, Nigeria was set for another cycle of leadership in 2023 as the tenure of President Muhammadu Buhari, 30 state governors, and over 1,000 legislatures draw to a close.

“At a time when there is daunting fiscal, monetary, and social challenges to surmount, Nigerians cannot afford to elect leaders who lack the competence, capacity, and creativity to find lasting solutions to the national quagmire. Even with a leadership that is willing to introduce the needed reforms, the present challenging environment would worsen before it can get better,” Chioke said.

According to the him, regardless of who the President is, Nigerians will need to brace for impact. 

“Noteworthy, the political will of the incoming administration to implement tough reforms that would curtail major economic leakages such as the subsidy regime on PMS(which has gulped over N7.0tn since 2010) and ensure the proper channelling of scarce resources to critical sectors would be a refreshing start,” he added.

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S/East companies shutting down over rising energy costs — MAN

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The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) has raised alarm over the worsening state of manufacturing activities in the South-East, warning that rising energy costs and poor access to finance are forcing many companies in the region to shut down.

Chairman of MAN for Anambra, Enugu and Ebonyi states, Lady Ada Chukwudozie, disclosed this during the MAN South-East Stakeholders’ Industry Conversation held in Awka, Anambra State.

The forum was convened to address concerns surrounding electricity regulation, billing transparency and declining industrial productivity across the region.

Chukwudozie said the few factories still operating were doing so at less than 30 per cent of installed capacity due to soaring electricity tariffs, high energy costs and limited access to credit facilities.

According to her, the harsh operating environment informed the decision to convene the stakeholders’ roundtable, stressing that the manufacturing sector remains critical to economic growth, industrialisation and job creation.

She warned that unless urgent measures are taken to address the challenges confronting manufacturers, industrial activities in the South-East could further deteriorate, with serious implications for employment and regional economic stability.

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“The manufacturing sector cannot thrive in an environment of uncertainty,” she said.

She called for reforms in the power sector to be driven by transparency, accountability and measurable performance standards, including agreed electricity supply hours, actual delivery levels and compensation mechanisms where supply consistently falls below expectations.

Chukwudozie also urged regulatory authorities to strengthen oversight of electricity providers and improve power supply to industrial clusters across the South-East.

Stakeholders at the forum expressed concern that manufacturers were increasingly struggling to cope with escalating production costs, worsened by unreliable electricity supply and the rising cost of alternative energy sources.

They noted that without affordable and stable energy, many more companies could either scale down operations or shut down completely.

In his keynote address, former Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission, NERC, Dr. Sam Amadi, urged governments in the South-East to adopt deliberate policies aimed at prioritising electricity supply to industrial clusters.

Amadi also advocated pricing frameworks that would encourage manufacturers to expand production and invest in growth.

The stakeholders’ meeting brought together manufacturers, regulators and other industry players to explore practical solutions to revive industrial output and tackle persistent power challenges affecting businesses in the region.

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Amukpe-Escravos pipeline and the real cost of ignoring current value, By Sufuyan Ojeifo

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Nigeria’s oil infrastructure has a habit of telling uncomfortable truths. Not just about barrels and flow rates, but about how a country chooses to value what it cannot afford to lose, and what it risks when it gets that calculation wrong.

Take the Amukpe-Escravos Pipeline, for example. A syndicate of lenders, led by Sterling Bank, is pushing back against efforts to revive a collapsed transaction involving a 40% stake in the asset. Their argument is not complicated. It is rooted in numbers and contractual discipline.

To be clear, a deal that fell apart in 2024 is being reconsidered using a valuation from that same year. However, since then, the asset has proved its worth. Independent assessments now place that stake closer to $600 million. The earlier benchmark sits far below that. The gap is not cosmetic. It is material. And if left unaddressed, it becomes a cost.

The original $243 million offer did not collapse by accident. It was terminated in October 2024 after Conpurex Limited failed to meet payment obligations, breached key terms, and sought to shift risk back to the seller. By the time the Technical Committee closed the process, confidence had already drained out of it. That much is settled.

Ordinarily, that should have been the end. Instead, there are moves to return to a September 2025 approval linked to that same process. The lenders describe this as an administrative carryover. Their response is simple. Start again. Set aside the old approval. Bring in an independent adviser. Return the asset to the market and let current value speak.

What is striking is not just the position itself, but how unusual it sounds in the Nigerian context. In a system where strategic assets have too often travelled through corridors of convenience, an insistence on valuation and process can sound almost rebellious. It should not be so.

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Because this is not entirely about one pipeline. It is about whether a terminated deal remains terminated. Whether contracts still mean what they say. Whether performance counts for anything once the paperwork has been filed away. And, crucially, who bears the cost when value is ignored.

The numbers, as always, are blunt. A 2025 independent valuation, referenced in the March 2026 edition of Africa Oil+Gas Report, places the 40% stake at a mid-case of $372 million, a high case of $544 million, and an upside of $641 million. These are not speculative figures. They reflect an asset that has quietly done its job in a difficult environment.

With a capacity of 160,000 barrels per day and uptime consistently above 95%, the Amukpe-Escravos Pipeline has become one of the more reliable evacuation routes in a system where reliability is often in short supply. While other corridors struggle with theft and disruption, this one works.

That fact matters a great deal. Because when an asset proves itself under pressure, its value does not stand still. It moves. To price it as though nothing has changed is not just a technical choice. It is a financial one. And every financial choice has consequences.

It says performance can be ignored. It says time does not count. It says administrative continuity can outrun economic reality. To be fair, the earlier process gave enough warning signs. Lenders questioned the assumptions. Coordination was weak. When Continental Oil and Gas stepped back, Conpurex entered without a clean transition and soon began to reopen settled terms, shifting obligations and introducing new conditions that unsettled the commercial balance. The eventual termination was not dramatic. It was inevitable.

What unsettles stakeholders now is the possibility that a process that ran its course may still shape the outcome. If a concluded transaction can reappear without a clear restart, the line between closure and continuity begins to blur. Once that line blurs, contractual uncertainty follows. And when certainty weakens, serious capital takes notice.

This is where the issue widens beyond the pipeline itself. Back in March, Africa Oil+Gas Report described the Amukpe-Escravos matter as no longer just a transaction story, but a test of how Nigeria governs, values, and safeguards strategic oil infrastructure. That reading feels even more relevant now.

Because what is at stake is not simply who acquires a stake in a pipeline. It is how the country signals to those willing to invest in its most critical assets. It is about whether value is recognised only in theory, or protected in practice. It is about whether losses are acknowledged, or quietly absorbed.

The lenders’ position is often described as resistance. It is better understood as discipline. Reset the process. Revisit the approval. Bring in independent oversight. Return the asset to the market through a transparent and competitive process that reflects present realities. Ensure capable counterparties. Align all stakeholders.

These are not extravagant demands. They are the basics. Nigeria has seen too many assets drift from promise to regret. Too many structures that once worked reduced to cautionary tales. When something works, when something proves resilient in a difficult system, the least that can be done is to treat it with the seriousness it has earned.

Moments like this do not announce themselves as turning points. They arrive quietly, dressed as routine decisions.

But they reveal everything. For an economy seeking disciplined capital and trying to rebuild confidence, the signal matters. Let the process be reset. Let valuation reflect reality. Let the outcome show that when Nigeria recognises value, it also knows how to protect it, and what it stands to lose when it does not.

Until then, the lenders’ position stands as a reminder that in a system where too much has been taken for granted, some lines are too important to be crossed and must be held.

● Sufuyan Ojeifo publishes THE CONCLAVE online newspaper.

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Nova Bank Appoints Jude Anele as Managing Director/CEO

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Jude Anele, Managing Director/CEO, NOVA Bank Ltd
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Meets CBN Capital Requirements, to Open Eight New Branches in 2026.

NOVA Bank Limited has announced the appointment of Jude Anele as its Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, following the approval of the Central Bank of Nigeria.

The appointment comes at a pivotal moment in the Bank’s evolution, following its transition from merchant banking to commercial banking and the successful completion of its recapitalisation programme ahead of the March 31, 2026, regulatory deadline.

Anele brings more than 33 years of banking experience across West and Central Africa, with deep expertise in retail /commercial banking, corporate banking, risk management, institutional transformation and executive leadership. Over the course of his career, he has led complex banking operations, strengthened governance frameworks, delivered sustainable revenue growth and built high-performance teams.

The appointment reflects the Board’s strategic commitment to consolidating NOVA Bank’s commercial banking platform while accelerating growth across its Corporate, Commercial and Retail segments, as well as priority markets.

Speaking on his appointment, Anele said he was honoured to assume leadership of the Bank at a defining stage of its growth.

“Nova Bank has built a strong institutional foundation defined by regulatory compliance, capital strength, disciplined governance and a clear commercial mandate. Our focus now is execution deepening customer relationships, expanding responsibly across priority markets, strengthening risk discipline and delivering sustainable value to our shareholders, he said.

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The Bank’s Chairman, Phillips Oduoza, also expressed confidence in the new leadership.

“The Board is pleased to welcome Mr. Jude Anele as Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer. His depth of experience, strategic clarity and proven leadership record align strongly with NOVA Bank’s growth ambitions,” Oduoza said.  He added that with recapitalization completed ahead of the regulatory timeline, the Bank is entering a new phase defined by scale, stability and structured expansion.

NOVA Bank also confirmed that it has met the recapitalization requirements set by the Central Bank of Nigeria ahead of the regulatory deadline, reinforcing its capital adequacy and long-term financial stability. The capital raise, supported by new and existing shareholders, further strengthens the Bank’s balance sheet and positions it for disciplined growth.

In 2025, Global Credit Rating reaffirmed NOVA Commercial Bank’s national scale long- and short-term issuer ratings of BBB(NG) and A3(NG) respectively, while Agusto & Co. reaffirmed the Bank’s “Bbb” rating with a stable outlook, reflecting its strong capital base, sound liquidity position and resilient asset quality relative to its risk profile.

NOVA Bank currently maintains operations in Lagos, Abuja, Owerri and Port Harcourt, with plans to open eight additional branches across key commercial hubs in 2026 as part of its expansion strategy.

The commissioning of the Bank’s regional office in Owerri marked a significant milestone in its South-East and South-South growth strategy. The event attracted government officials’business leaders and Nigerians in diaspora and underscored NOVA Bank’s commitment to supporting enterprise development and economic growth.

NOVA Bank Limited is a commercial bank licensed and regulated by the Central Bank of Nigeria. Commencing operations in 2018 as a merchant bank, the institution transitioned to a commercial bank in 2024 and provides retail, SME, corporate and commercial banking services through its Phygital modelan integrated approach combining physical branch presence with digital banking infrastructure.

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