
Politics
What Fitch Report predict will happen in Nigeria if Tinubu wins 2023 election
A Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research report released on Thursday has predicted victory for the candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Bola Tinubu, in the 2023 presidential election.
However, the report on the Nigerian presidential election, done by a subsidiary of international credit rating firm, Fitch Ratings’, projected that the victory will lead to protests and social instability in the country because of the Muslim-Muslim ticket and the expectations of the followers of Labour Party’s candidate, Peter Obi, that will be dashed.
It stated that notwithstanding some polls putting Obi ahead of other contestants, Tinubu will still emerge winner in the February contest.
The report said, “Indeed, we maintain our view that the ruling party’s Bola Ahmed Tinubu is the candidate most likely to win the presidential election as a split opposition vote will favour the APC.
The report predicted further that “Protests and social discontent are likely to ramp up in the aftermath of a Tinubu win since this would end the recent trend of the presidency alternating between Muslims and Christians.”
The Fitch Solutions Country Risk report stated additionally that Tinubu’s victory would usher in social unrest based on several factors like religion, owing to the Muslim-Muslim ticket under which Tinubu would emerge and the reaction of Obi’s supporters who are mainly youths.

The report states: “Since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, there has been an informal agreement that resulted in the presidency alternating between Northern and Southern states, as well as between Christians and Muslims. A win for Tinubu would break with this unwritten tradition and likely fuel sentiment of perceived marginalisation among Christians.
“In addition, Obi’s supporters – mostly young, urban voters – are likely to question the fairness of the electoral process, especially after recent polls have predicted a win for Obi. These dynamics are likely to engender political unrest following the February vote. “As a result, we have revised down the Social Stability component of our proprietary Short-Term Political Risk Index (STPRI) from 30.0 to 25.0 previously (scores out of 100; lower score implies higher risk). This brings Nigeria’s overall STPRI score from 46.3 to 45.0. Social Stability Remains.”
The research stated that though previous polls had put Obi ahead of other rivals, the fact that it was conducted online and going by World Bank records, only 36 per cent of Nigerians use the online space and access which limits its spread among those to decide the winner of the election, the surveys were therefore not widespread and therefore unreliable.
“Surveys showing that Obi is ahead of his opponents, Bola Tinubu (APC) and Atiku Abubakar (PDP), were mostly based on responses gathered online. Since only 36.0% of Nigerians use the Internet (World Bank, 2020), we believe that these results are skewed towards urban, affluent voters who are most likely to support Obi. We also highlight that these polls suggest that a large share of voters remain undecided,” the research said.
Explaining the reason behind their conclusion that Tinubu would triumph over other candidates, Fitch said Obi lacked support in the Muslim North where it claimed majority of the voters are located and where also turn out on elections were higher than other part of the country.
It opined that since the 1999 Constitution provides for a candidate scoring highest number of votes, as well as securing 25 per cent of votes in at least 24 states of the federation, and “it would be herculean for the Labour Party which lacks structure and not having candidates for most of the positions for state Assemblies, House of Representatives, Senate and governorship, to deliver above those that have stakes for such positions.”
Fitch continued on Obi and the LP: “Furthermore, the northern electorate historically tends to vote for presidential candidates from their region. With Obi being a Christian from the South (Anambra State), increasing his voter share in the North will prove challenging.
“While we believe Obi is unlikely to win the election, he will probably do well for a third-party candidate. Indeed, a third-party candidate has never reached more than 7.5% of votes in Nigeria. However, due to his frugal reputation and large social media following, we expect Obi to get a higher share of the vote than previous third-party candidates.
“As such, we believe that Obi’s popularity will most likely split the opposition vote, at the expense of the PDP. The PDP’s candidate (Atiku Abubakar) is a Northerner and we believe that the party’s only route to victory is expanding its vote in the South-west and North-central states, while retaining large majorities in the South-south and South-east.
“However, given Obi’s popularity in the south – especially the South-south and South-east – we believe it is unlikely the main opposition party will be able to gain more votes in these parts of the country. Indeed, we maintain our view that the APC’s Tinubu is best placed to win the presidential election. We expect that the party, which has nominated a Muslim-Muslim ticket, will repeat its strong performance in the North. Given that Tinubu is a former governor of Lagos, the party is also likely to improve on its performance in the South-west. Furthermore, we expect Tinubu to benefit from incumbency advantages, with the APC having been in power since 2015,” it projected.
The report said that though Tinubu promised to end the petrol subsidy regime sapping the economy, it doubted he could implement it due to what it called the appetite of the ruling APC for the free money that accrues from the subsidy.
Fitch reports: “We do not expect significant policy changes under a Tinubu presidency. While Tinubu has stated that he would phase out Nigeria’s costly fuel subsidy, we are skeptical this will happen in the short term. There appears to be limited appetite within the APC to remove the subsidy, and with inflation remaining elevated in 2023 – due to high food prices – the cancellation of the subsidy would negatively affect the new president’s popularity.
“Indeed, the PDP tried to remove the subsidy in 2012, but had to back down after large-scale protests. In addition, we believe that Tinubu’s aim to raise oil production is unfeasible in the short term. Crude production has declined significantly to 1.1mn barrels per day in September – a multi-decade low – due to rising oil theft and previous underinvestment. Given the country’s weak fiscal position, we believe that there will be limited room for more security and social spending to combat oil theft and attract more investment.”
The research, however, noted that factors that could militate against the emergence of Tinubu as President would be if the concerns on his health become more pronounced in the run up to the election proper in which case it might dampen his chances but concluded, “There remains a possibility that a three-way race results in no candidate passing the electoral threshold. This would prompt a second round for the first time in Nigerian history, likely heightening political instability.”
News
2027: I’m ready to die protecting my vote — Obi
Peter Obi, Presidential Candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), has declared that he is ready to lose his life while protecting his votes in the 2027 election.
Speaking at a town hall meeting in Port Harcourt, Rivers State capital, on Thursday, Obi charged Nigerians to prevent a repeat of the “irregularities” witnessed during the 2023 general election.
In 2023, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) failed to upload election results electronically due to the alleged failure of IReV.
Critics had accused the commission of hiding under the alleged failure of IReV to rig the election against the opposition.
Obi, who ran under Labour Party, and former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar who was candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), had rejected the declaration of President Bola Tinubu as winner of the election and headed to the court.

But Tinubu’s election victory was upheld by the court.
Speaking at the event tagged: “Obi Talks Nigeria”, the NDC Presidential Candidate said those plotting to manipulate the election would fail in their mission.

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He urged his supporters to go all out and exercise their franchise on election day, saying no one would intimidate them or prevent their votes from counting.
“Nobody will intimidate us again at the polling booth. If you get to any polling booth today, the highest number of officials you see is five. The average number of voters is 40 to 50. There is no way five people will intimidate 50 people.”
“This time all of us will rescue our country. Somebody said, ‘We are ready to die.’ Let me tell you, I’m ready to die too.
“We will make sure we have coordination to ensure that such intimidation does not arise. Yes, they will try to manipulate the IReV. But let me tell you, it will not be easy this time,” he said.
“There will be so many IReVs this time. If there is a network glitch, we will give them another one that has no glitch,” he said.
“By allowing them to continue, that glitch will glitch our lives. That is what we are suffering today,” Obi said.
On his part, NDC Vice Presidential Candidate, Rabiu Kwankwaso, appealed to voters to avoid past mistakes of not choosing competent leaders with the capacity to address the country’s challenges.
He said despite the number of states that the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) currently controls, the party will still lose the next election.
“I believe that Nigerians must not make mistakes again. This is the time to get it right. And anything to the contrary, I believe people, if they make a mistake, certainly people will regret making that mistake. Because it will be too costly for the people and the country.”
“Jonathan was the president, the sitting president lost the election. I’ve given you an example, especially those who think because they have over 30 governors, they cannot lose the election. That was a very big mistake,” he said. (Daily Trust)
Politics
Peter Obi questions President’s past, demands transparency over Educational Records
The presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), Mr. Peter Obi, has criticised the moves by a sitting President to prevent the release of records concerning his past, particularly documents relating to his educational credentials.
In a tweet, the NDC presidential candidate said he was deeply saddened by the direction in which Nigeria was heading, describing it as “profoundly embarrassing” that a sitting President would ask a foreign court to withhold records concerning his past, particularly where such records relate to matters of legitimate public interest.
Obi argued that leadership requires the courage and humility to confront one’s past rather than shield uncomfortable aspects of it from legitimate scrutiny.
“Leadership, in my humble view, demands the courage and humility to confront one’s history — to acknowledge mistakes, provide candid explanations where questions arise, and, where necessary, apologise and seek forgiveness,” he said.
According to him, true authority is strengthened, rather than diminished, when leaders accept responsibility instead of attempting to conceal controversial aspects of their past.

He said the matter becomes even more significant when it concerns educational credentials, stressing that questions surrounding foundational education, including primary and secondary schooling, should not remain unresolved or be addressed principally through legal proceedings.
“Nigerians deserve clear, credible, and verifiable explanations, especially when such had been submitted in the past,” Obi stated.
The former Anambra State governor also expressed concern about the example such conduct could set for the country’s younger generation, particularly the more than 30 million Nigerians currently in school.
He said the highest office in the land should exemplify integrity, accountability, transparency and ethical leadership.
Obi noted that an imperfect past was part of the human condition, but maintained that what mattered was the willingness to confront it with humility and honesty, apologise where necessary, make amends and, when circumstances demand, place the interests of the nation above personal ambition.
He questioned when Nigeria’s political class would fully appreciate that individual ambitions are temporary, while the nation endures.
“When will our political class fully appreciate that individual ambitions are temporary, while the nation endures?” he asked.
Obi further observed that although the Presidency is an office held for only a season, the moral standards established by those who occupy it could influence generations.
He reaffirmed his loyalty to Nigeria, stating that he had never sought citizenship of another country, even when doing so became fashionable.
“Nigeria is greater than any one person, and the integrity of the Republic must always come before the interests of the individual,” he said.
Politics
Tinubu, APC governors move to resolve campaign list crisis
President Bola Tinubu on Thursday held closed door talks with governors elected on the platform of the All Progressives Congress, otherwise known as the Progressives Governors‘ Forum, at the Aso Rock Presidential Villa, Abuja.
Thursday’s meeting is the latest in a back-to-back series of engagements with governors and top chieftains of the party at Aso Rock to resolve the crisis trailing the controversial Presidential Campaign Council list released by the party last Saturday, August 23, 2026.
The governors marched to the President’s office shortly before 4:00pm on Thursday, after emerging from a separate session of the National Economic Council chaired by Vice President Kashim Shettima.
The consultations, which began since Wednesday, were aimed at reviewing and reworking the PCC list which has continued to generate controversy since its release.
The ruling party had faced severe backlash over the inclusion of some controversial party chieftains, particularly those currently facing corruption charges.

It was also alleged that some key sections of the party were not carried along in the drafting of the PCC list.
Multiple party sources, who spoke with The PUNCH on Thursday, said the meeting, which initially held from around 4pm to 11pm on Wednesday, could not be concluded.
Consequently, the meeting continued on Thursday after the regular NEC meeting.
As of press time on Thursday, The PUNCH could not confirm the extent of the changes made to the list.
However, sources close to the APC governors and party heavyweights said the list had been reviewed.
One of the sources said the initial list had been deleted from the party’s X handle and that a new list would be posted as soon as the President approves the deliberations at the meeting and the proposed changes.
“The list is part of the main agenda of the meeting. You can notice that the other controversial list has been deleted from the Twitter handle of the party,” a top source close to the APC governors said.
Also speaking on the list, another top party chieftain said, “Can you believe that the party was not carried along in the formation of the list? The President’s Special Adviser on Political Matters and a few persons in the Presidency came up with the list.
“You can see the backlash that has trailed it. The President is handling the matter, and it is believed that some changes will be made after the two-day meeting.”
Meanwhile, further findings by our correspondent showed that the party would double down on social intervention programmes ahead of the January 2027 poll.
It was learnt that this was part of the ruling party’s plan to reach out to Nigerians and ameliorate the suffering of the masses.
The APC had recently released the complete membership list of its 2027 Presidential Campaign Council.
As earlier reported, President Bola Tinubu will chair the council, with Vice President Kashim Shettima and APC National Chairman, Professor Nentawe Yilwatda, serving as vice chairmen I and II respectively. Senator Abdulaziz Yari was named Director-General, while Imo State Governor, Hope Uzodimma, will serve as Secretary.
The expanded list, numbering 223 entries, adds directorates covering finance, extractive industries, education, manufacturing and MSMEs, support group coordination, faith-based mobilisation, protocol, labour union relations, special duties, stakeholders’ mobilisation, community support, digital operations, grassroots engagement, and welfare.
Following series of controversies that trailed the list, the Special Adviser to the President on Media and Public Communication, Sunday Dare, said later that adjustments would made to the list where necessary.
Dare said the list remained valid because the campaign structure was not yet complete, with several subcommittees still to be constituted.
“As it is with every other list, there’s a room for subcommittees. Those subcommittees have not been formed, and so many other names will come into that subcommittee,” he said.
Dare also referred to a statement issued by the APC, insisting that the party had not withdrawn the list.
“But of course, there will be adjustments. The list is not cast in stone, just like every other list,” he added.
Asked whether the expected changes amounted to a review of the council, Dare drew a distinction between the two terms, saying the changes would only be made where necessary.
“Not a review, just adjustments where necessary,” he said.
Explaining the distinction, Dare said a review would amount to a broader overhaul of the existing structure.
“Review is wholesale, this is not wholesale,” Dare said.
He added that the planned subcommittees would provide room for more party members and political stakeholders to be accommodated within the campaign structure. (PUNCH)
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