
Politics
What Fitch Report predict will happen in Nigeria if Tinubu wins 2023 election
A Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research report released on Thursday has predicted victory for the candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Bola Tinubu, in the 2023 presidential election.
However, the report on the Nigerian presidential election, done by a subsidiary of international credit rating firm, Fitch Ratings’, projected that the victory will lead to protests and social instability in the country because of the Muslim-Muslim ticket and the expectations of the followers of Labour Party’s candidate, Peter Obi, that will be dashed.
It stated that notwithstanding some polls putting Obi ahead of other contestants, Tinubu will still emerge winner in the February contest.
The report said, “Indeed, we maintain our view that the ruling party’s Bola Ahmed Tinubu is the candidate most likely to win the presidential election as a split opposition vote will favour the APC.
The report predicted further that “Protests and social discontent are likely to ramp up in the aftermath of a Tinubu win since this would end the recent trend of the presidency alternating between Muslims and Christians.”
The Fitch Solutions Country Risk report stated additionally that Tinubu’s victory would usher in social unrest based on several factors like religion, owing to the Muslim-Muslim ticket under which Tinubu would emerge and the reaction of Obi’s supporters who are mainly youths.

The report states: “Since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, there has been an informal agreement that resulted in the presidency alternating between Northern and Southern states, as well as between Christians and Muslims. A win for Tinubu would break with this unwritten tradition and likely fuel sentiment of perceived marginalisation among Christians.
“In addition, Obi’s supporters – mostly young, urban voters – are likely to question the fairness of the electoral process, especially after recent polls have predicted a win for Obi. These dynamics are likely to engender political unrest following the February vote. “As a result, we have revised down the Social Stability component of our proprietary Short-Term Political Risk Index (STPRI) from 30.0 to 25.0 previously (scores out of 100; lower score implies higher risk). This brings Nigeria’s overall STPRI score from 46.3 to 45.0. Social Stability Remains.”
The research stated that though previous polls had put Obi ahead of other rivals, the fact that it was conducted online and going by World Bank records, only 36 per cent of Nigerians use the online space and access which limits its spread among those to decide the winner of the election, the surveys were therefore not widespread and therefore unreliable.
“Surveys showing that Obi is ahead of his opponents, Bola Tinubu (APC) and Atiku Abubakar (PDP), were mostly based on responses gathered online. Since only 36.0% of Nigerians use the Internet (World Bank, 2020), we believe that these results are skewed towards urban, affluent voters who are most likely to support Obi. We also highlight that these polls suggest that a large share of voters remain undecided,” the research said.
Explaining the reason behind their conclusion that Tinubu would triumph over other candidates, Fitch said Obi lacked support in the Muslim North where it claimed majority of the voters are located and where also turn out on elections were higher than other part of the country.
It opined that since the 1999 Constitution provides for a candidate scoring highest number of votes, as well as securing 25 per cent of votes in at least 24 states of the federation, and “it would be herculean for the Labour Party which lacks structure and not having candidates for most of the positions for state Assemblies, House of Representatives, Senate and governorship, to deliver above those that have stakes for such positions.”
Fitch continued on Obi and the LP: “Furthermore, the northern electorate historically tends to vote for presidential candidates from their region. With Obi being a Christian from the South (Anambra State), increasing his voter share in the North will prove challenging.
“While we believe Obi is unlikely to win the election, he will probably do well for a third-party candidate. Indeed, a third-party candidate has never reached more than 7.5% of votes in Nigeria. However, due to his frugal reputation and large social media following, we expect Obi to get a higher share of the vote than previous third-party candidates.
“As such, we believe that Obi’s popularity will most likely split the opposition vote, at the expense of the PDP. The PDP’s candidate (Atiku Abubakar) is a Northerner and we believe that the party’s only route to victory is expanding its vote in the South-west and North-central states, while retaining large majorities in the South-south and South-east.
“However, given Obi’s popularity in the south – especially the South-south and South-east – we believe it is unlikely the main opposition party will be able to gain more votes in these parts of the country. Indeed, we maintain our view that the APC’s Tinubu is best placed to win the presidential election. We expect that the party, which has nominated a Muslim-Muslim ticket, will repeat its strong performance in the North. Given that Tinubu is a former governor of Lagos, the party is also likely to improve on its performance in the South-west. Furthermore, we expect Tinubu to benefit from incumbency advantages, with the APC having been in power since 2015,” it projected.
The report said that though Tinubu promised to end the petrol subsidy regime sapping the economy, it doubted he could implement it due to what it called the appetite of the ruling APC for the free money that accrues from the subsidy.
Fitch reports: “We do not expect significant policy changes under a Tinubu presidency. While Tinubu has stated that he would phase out Nigeria’s costly fuel subsidy, we are skeptical this will happen in the short term. There appears to be limited appetite within the APC to remove the subsidy, and with inflation remaining elevated in 2023 – due to high food prices – the cancellation of the subsidy would negatively affect the new president’s popularity.
“Indeed, the PDP tried to remove the subsidy in 2012, but had to back down after large-scale protests. In addition, we believe that Tinubu’s aim to raise oil production is unfeasible in the short term. Crude production has declined significantly to 1.1mn barrels per day in September – a multi-decade low – due to rising oil theft and previous underinvestment. Given the country’s weak fiscal position, we believe that there will be limited room for more security and social spending to combat oil theft and attract more investment.”
The research, however, noted that factors that could militate against the emergence of Tinubu as President would be if the concerns on his health become more pronounced in the run up to the election proper in which case it might dampen his chances but concluded, “There remains a possibility that a three-way race results in no candidate passing the electoral threshold. This would prompt a second round for the first time in Nigerian history, likely heightening political instability.”
News
2027: ‘Peter Obi must not die’ — Igbo Group warns of catastrophic consequences
Njiko Igbo Forum, an affiliate of Ohanaeze Ndigbo, has issued a stern warning ahead of the 2027 general elections, cautioning that it will be catastrophic should anything happen to Mr Peter Obi.
It could be recalled that Obi, on Wednesday, raised the alarm that his life was under threat.
The presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress, NDC, raised fears that he may not be alive in 2027 to be part of the election.
However, in a statement issued on Thursday, Rev Dr Okechukwu Christopher Obioha, Leader, Njiko Igbo Forum Nigeria, he warned that should anything happen to Obi or he was not in the ballot, the reaction and result would be very catastrophic.
Obioha said the caution was part of the decision taken during an emergency meeting held today, Thursday, in Enugu.

The Forum said, “That we have seen the viral video made by His Excellency, Mr Peter Gregory Obi, speaking on a number of issues, he expressed serious concern that his life is in danger.
“For him to have gone to the extent of saying he might not be alive before the 16th of January 2027, speaks volumes both in our polity and in the country at large.
“We have seen him in the past, spoke about the federal government trying to frustrate and targeting him not to be in the ballot.
“We have also observed over a period of time that the presidency or the federal government led by President Tinubu does not want Peter Obi to be in the ballot.”
While drawing the attention of the Presidency, Nigeria and the world to those allegations, Njiko Igbo Forum declared that “if anything happens to Mr Peter Gregory Obi or finally his name is not in the ballot for the 16th January, 2026 presidential election, the reaction and result will be very catastrophic and may adversely affect the continued unity in diversity of this country Nigeria.”
It further stated that the Igbo had been very quiet, pushed to the wall, segregated against, marked out everywhere, chased about and even tried to take their possessions.
Njiko Igbo Forum cautioned that keeping quiet does not mean the Igbo are cowards.
It said the ruling government should not forget that for any democracy to thrive, there must be a viral opposition in the polity.
“There is no reason, for what we have seen in the process or polity in trailing Peter Obi and going to an extent of chasing him through all the political parties and now wanting to kill him.
“This outcry by Mr Peter Gregory Obi, must not be taken lightly and request as a matter of urgent National importance, that an urgent investigation panel be constituted to verify Mr Peter Obi’s allegations.
“We are strongly stating again that, nothing should happen to Mr Peter Gregory Obi.
“Yes, Chief Awolowo said, before Nigeria he was of the Yoruba Nation. The same way we are saying before Peter Obi is of Nigeria, he is of the Igbo.
“Mr Peter Gregory Obi will live and become the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in 2027,” it declared.
News
I might not be alive to contest in 2027 – Peter Obi raises alarm over threats to his life
Presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress, NDC, Mr Peter Obi, has cried out over alleged threat to his life.
Obi, who is a major contender ahead of the 2027 presidential election said he might not be alive to participate in the election.
According to him, there is obvious attack on everything that had to do with him, including his life.
The former Anambra state governor made the allegation during a podcast with Chude Jideonwo.
“The way they are going now I might not be alive, I’m telling you every single thing I do for a living this government is frustrating it deliberately so.

“Everything, so there’s even a possibility if they have opportunity I will not be alive. I get frustrations every day because you do things that may think it may be normal it is not normal they won’t come directly and say oh we are doing this but you could see their hand in eventually everything.
“The government is attacking everybody, I am being attacked personally even to provide me with things I am entitled to, not at all,” he said.
He recalled how his vehicle was clamped down at the airport while he was right there, whereas other vehicles lined up on the same spot were untouched.
Obi further that stated that even close associates were beginning to avoid him over fear of government clampdown.
He disclosed that friends now send him invitations for occasions but tell him not to bother attending.
Politics
Voters reward performance as APC sweeps Ekiti, dominates Bye-Elections nationwide — Yilwatda

The National Chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Prof. Nentawe Yilwatda, has described the resounding victory of Governor Biodun Oyebanji in the Ekiti State Governorship Election and the party’s impressive performance in the recent bye-elections across the country as a clear vote of confidence in the APC, the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, and the ongoing reforms being implemented to reposition Nigeria for sustainable growth and prosperity.
Prof. Yilwatda stated that the outcome of the elections demonstrates that Nigerians are able to distinguish between temporary economic challenges associated with reforms and the long-term benefits of responsible governance, economic restructuring, infrastructure development and institutional renewal being championed by the APC at both federal and state levels.
According to the National Chairman:
“The overwhelming victory recorded by our great party in Ekiti State and our remarkable success in the bye-elections across the country represent a powerful endorsement of the APC’s governance philosophy. These results affirm that Nigerians appreciate leadership that prioritises development, accountability, stability and the welfare of the people.”
“The people of Ekiti State have once again demonstrated that performance remains the most potent campaign message in democratic politics. Governor Biodun Oyebanji’s resounding re-election is a reward for visionary leadership, inclusive governance, prudent management of resources and visible developmental achievements across the state.”

Governor Oyebanji of the APC was declared winner of the Ekiti Governorship Election after securing a commanding victory across the state, reaffirming the confidence of the electorate in his administration and the APC’s developmental agenda. The party also recorded significant victories in five of the six bye-elections conducted across various states of the federation.
Prof. Yilwatda, in a statement signed by his Special Adviser on Media and Information Strategy, Abimbola Tooki, noted that the Ekiti result has further strengthened the APC’s narrative that performance-based governance remains electorally rewarding, even amid difficult economic transitions.
“The Ekiti election has become a national reference point. It confirms that when governments deliver tangible results in infrastructure, education, healthcare, agriculture, youth empowerment, security and social development, citizens respond with renewed trust and overwhelming electoral support.”
“This victory sends a clear message that governance, not propaganda, remains the most effective route to political legitimacy. The people of Ekiti have spoken loudly and clearly in support of continuity, stability and progress.”
The APC National Chairman described Ekiti State under Governor Oyebanji as one of the most compelling governance success stories in contemporary Nigeria, citing sustained investments in road infrastructure, rural development, human capital advancement, healthcare delivery, agricultural productivity, workers’ welfare and ease of doing business.
He said the administration has successfully built broad-based political consensus while maintaining a strong focus on development outcomes, thereby creating an environment of stability and accelerated progress.
“Ekiti today stands as a shining example of how APC governments are translating public trust into measurable development outcomes. The state’s progress under Governor Oyebanji provides a practical demonstration of our party’s commitment to people-centred governance.”
Prof. Yilwatda further stated that the election outcomes should be viewed within the broader national context of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s reform agenda, which is gradually laying the foundation for a more resilient, productive and globally competitive Nigerian economy.
“Despite inheriting deep structural challenges, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has demonstrated courage and vision in implementing reforms that are necessary for Nigeria’s long-term prosperity. The confidence reposed in our party by voters across the country indicates growing public understanding and appreciation of these reforms and their future benefits.”
It
“These victories are therefore not only electoral successes; they are validations of a governing philosophy anchored on bold leadership, responsible decision-making and sustainable development.”
The National Chairman congratulated President Tinubu, Governor Biodun Oyebanji, APC leaders and members in Ekiti State and across the federation, as well as all candidates who emerged victorious in the bye-elections.
He also commended the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), security agencies and the people of Ekiti State for the peaceful conduct of the election.
Prof. Yilwatda assured Nigerians that the APC would remain focused on delivering good governance at all levels and deepening democratic dividends for citizens across the country.
“Our message to Nigerians is simple: we have heard your voices, we appreciate your confidence and we shall continue to justify the trust you have placed in our party through impactful governance, economic renewal and inclusive national development.”
“The APC remains committed to building a stronger, more prosperous and more united Nigeria. The victories recorded in Ekiti and the bye-elections reinforce our resolve to work even harder in service to the Nigerian people.”
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