
Politics
What Fitch Report predict will happen in Nigeria if Tinubu wins 2023 election
A Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research report released on Thursday has predicted victory for the candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Bola Tinubu, in the 2023 presidential election.
However, the report on the Nigerian presidential election, done by a subsidiary of international credit rating firm, Fitch Ratings’, projected that the victory will lead to protests and social instability in the country because of the Muslim-Muslim ticket and the expectations of the followers of Labour Party’s candidate, Peter Obi, that will be dashed.
It stated that notwithstanding some polls putting Obi ahead of other contestants, Tinubu will still emerge winner in the February contest.
The report said, “Indeed, we maintain our view that the ruling party’s Bola Ahmed Tinubu is the candidate most likely to win the presidential election as a split opposition vote will favour the APC.
The report predicted further that “Protests and social discontent are likely to ramp up in the aftermath of a Tinubu win since this would end the recent trend of the presidency alternating between Muslims and Christians.”
The Fitch Solutions Country Risk report stated additionally that Tinubu’s victory would usher in social unrest based on several factors like religion, owing to the Muslim-Muslim ticket under which Tinubu would emerge and the reaction of Obi’s supporters who are mainly youths.
The report states: “Since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, there has been an informal agreement that resulted in the presidency alternating between Northern and Southern states, as well as between Christians and Muslims. A win for Tinubu would break with this unwritten tradition and likely fuel sentiment of perceived marginalisation among Christians.

“In addition, Obi’s supporters – mostly young, urban voters – are likely to question the fairness of the electoral process, especially after recent polls have predicted a win for Obi. These dynamics are likely to engender political unrest following the February vote. “As a result, we have revised down the Social Stability component of our proprietary Short-Term Political Risk Index (STPRI) from 30.0 to 25.0 previously (scores out of 100; lower score implies higher risk). This brings Nigeria’s overall STPRI score from 46.3 to 45.0. Social Stability Remains.”
The research stated that though previous polls had put Obi ahead of other rivals, the fact that it was conducted online and going by World Bank records, only 36 per cent of Nigerians use the online space and access which limits its spread among those to decide the winner of the election, the surveys were therefore not widespread and therefore unreliable.
“Surveys showing that Obi is ahead of his opponents, Bola Tinubu (APC) and Atiku Abubakar (PDP), were mostly based on responses gathered online. Since only 36.0% of Nigerians use the Internet (World Bank, 2020), we believe that these results are skewed towards urban, affluent voters who are most likely to support Obi. We also highlight that these polls suggest that a large share of voters remain undecided,” the research said.
Explaining the reason behind their conclusion that Tinubu would triumph over other candidates, Fitch said Obi lacked support in the Muslim North where it claimed majority of the voters are located and where also turn out on elections were higher than other part of the country.
It opined that since the 1999 Constitution provides for a candidate scoring highest number of votes, as well as securing 25 per cent of votes in at least 24 states of the federation, and “it would be herculean for the Labour Party which lacks structure and not having candidates for most of the positions for state Assemblies, House of Representatives, Senate and governorship, to deliver above those that have stakes for such positions.”
Fitch continued on Obi and the LP: “Furthermore, the northern electorate historically tends to vote for presidential candidates from their region. With Obi being a Christian from the South (Anambra State), increasing his voter share in the North will prove challenging.
“While we believe Obi is unlikely to win the election, he will probably do well for a third-party candidate. Indeed, a third-party candidate has never reached more than 7.5% of votes in Nigeria. However, due to his frugal reputation and large social media following, we expect Obi to get a higher share of the vote than previous third-party candidates.
“As such, we believe that Obi’s popularity will most likely split the opposition vote, at the expense of the PDP. The PDP’s candidate (Atiku Abubakar) is a Northerner and we believe that the party’s only route to victory is expanding its vote in the South-west and North-central states, while retaining large majorities in the South-south and South-east.
“However, given Obi’s popularity in the south – especially the South-south and South-east – we believe it is unlikely the main opposition party will be able to gain more votes in these parts of the country. Indeed, we maintain our view that the APC’s Tinubu is best placed to win the presidential election. We expect that the party, which has nominated a Muslim-Muslim ticket, will repeat its strong performance in the North. Given that Tinubu is a former governor of Lagos, the party is also likely to improve on its performance in the South-west. Furthermore, we expect Tinubu to benefit from incumbency advantages, with the APC having been in power since 2015,” it projected.
The report said that though Tinubu promised to end the petrol subsidy regime sapping the economy, it doubted he could implement it due to what it called the appetite of the ruling APC for the free money that accrues from the subsidy.
Fitch reports: “We do not expect significant policy changes under a Tinubu presidency. While Tinubu has stated that he would phase out Nigeria’s costly fuel subsidy, we are skeptical this will happen in the short term. There appears to be limited appetite within the APC to remove the subsidy, and with inflation remaining elevated in 2023 – due to high food prices – the cancellation of the subsidy would negatively affect the new president’s popularity.
“Indeed, the PDP tried to remove the subsidy in 2012, but had to back down after large-scale protests. In addition, we believe that Tinubu’s aim to raise oil production is unfeasible in the short term. Crude production has declined significantly to 1.1mn barrels per day in September – a multi-decade low – due to rising oil theft and previous underinvestment. Given the country’s weak fiscal position, we believe that there will be limited room for more security and social spending to combat oil theft and attract more investment.”
The research, however, noted that factors that could militate against the emergence of Tinubu as President would be if the concerns on his health become more pronounced in the run up to the election proper in which case it might dampen his chances but concluded, “There remains a possibility that a three-way race results in no candidate passing the electoral threshold. This would prompt a second round for the first time in Nigerian history, likely heightening political instability.”
Politics
Stakeholders demand sanctions against A’Court’s Justice Lifu, as Mark warns FG on political manipulation
Following the Court of Appeal’s decision to reverse the deregistration of the African Democratic Congress and four other parties on Monday, ADC National Chairman Senator David Mark stated the judiciary is on trial and warned the Federal Government against political manipulation.
Stakeholders also called for sanctions against Justice Peter Lifu for flouting a superior court order, as the ADC assures supporters they will remain on the ballot.
Political parties and stakeholders affected by the Federal High Court’s controversial deregistration order welcomed the Court of Appeal’s decision to stay the execution of the judgment.
The Court of Appeal in Abuja had on Tuesday ordered a stay of execution of the judgment that directed the Independent National Electoral Commission to deregister the ADC, Action Peoples Party, Action Alliance, Accord Party and Zenith Labour Party, while delivering a stinging rebuke to Justice Lifu for flouting a May 22 appellate court order restraining him from delivering the ruling.
In a unanimous decision on Tuesday, a three-member panel led by Justice A. B. Mohammed condemned Justice Lifu of the Federal High Court in Abuja for flouting a May 22 order that directed him to suspend proceedings before him, describing his conduct as the gravest form of judicial misconduct.
“The decision of the lower court to proceed with the judgment despite the express order of this court is a brazen violation of the hierarchy of the court and the 1999 Constitution,” the panel held.

The appellate court went further, invoking a Supreme Court precedent to characterise Justice Lifu’s conduct in the harshest terms.
“The decision of the lower court to proceed with the judgment despite the express order of this court is the highest form of judicial impertinence,” the panel declared, adding that the Supreme Court had previously held that a judge who acted in such a manner “is unfit for the bench as it amounts to judicial rascality.”
The court said it had a duty to assert its supervisory authority over lower courts and protect the integrity of the judicial hierarchy.
“Courts are enjoined to protect their integrity. This court has supervisory authority over the trial court. This court has the duty to invoke its powers in ensuring that its orders are obeyed. The application for stay of execution is hereby granted. The enforcement of the judgment is stayed,” the panel ruled.
The Federal High Court in Abuja, presided over by Justice Lifu, had on Monday ordered INEC to deregister the ADC, Accord Party, Action Alliance, Action Peoples Party and Zenith Labour Party, ruling that the five parties failed to meet the constitutional performance thresholds under Section 225A of the 1999 Constitution, specifically, requirements related to securing at least 25 per cent of votes in certain states or winning seats in the 2023 general elections.
Earlier in Tuesday’s proceedings, INEC told the appellate court it was stunned by Justice Lifu’s decision to deliver the judgment, disclosing that the commission only learned of the ruling through media reports rather than any official notification.
INEC’s lead counsel, Mr Haliru Mohammed, told the panel that the commission had been aware of the appellate court’s May 22 order restraining the lower court from delivering the judgment, which had originally been reserved for June 5.
“We were not aware of any notice from the court regarding the delivery of the judgment. We only saw it as breaking news in the media. We therefore do not oppose the application of the appellant to stay the execution of the judgment,” Mohammed submitted.
The commission also aligned itself with the notice of appeal filed by the affected political parties.
Counsel to the ADC, Mr Shuaibu Aruwa, SAN, told the court that Justice Lifu communicated the judgment’s delivery to the party via WhatsApp, a disclosure that drew visible reactions from the bench.
Aruwa described the lower court’s conduct as an invitation to anarchy and urged the appellate court to invoke its disciplinary jurisdiction under Section 6 of the 1999 Constitution to sanction the judge.
“The action of the trial judge calls for swift and extraordinary measures from this court. We have come to the stage where this court should press the reset button.
“We urge this court to take disciplinary steps by immediately suspending that judgment. This court has the power to protect its own integrity. We pray this court suspends the judgment immediately without further delay,” he added.
APC reacts
Reacting to the appellate court’s decision, the ADC’s National Publicity Secretary, Bolaji Abdullahi, said the ruling offered a measure of hope for the judiciary’s credibility, though he was careful not to celebrate unreservedly.
“It indicates that the judiciary may still redeem itself. We are cautiously delighted but we insist that it shouldn’t have happened in the first place,” Abdullahi said in a telephone interview.
He called on the National Judicial Council to take urgent steps to rid the bench of judges whose conduct brought the institution into disrepute.
“We, therefore, hope that the judicial council will take urgent steps to purge the bench of judges who bring the judicial institution to disrepute,” he said.
The National Leader of the Action Peoples Party, Ikenga Ugochinyere, was more emphatic in his welcome of the ruling, describing it as a vindication of the party’s position from the outset and calling on the NJC to weed out what he termed controversial judges.
“There was no need to panic in the first place, and, so, this ruling is a vindication of our position from the get-go,” Ugochinyere said.
“We call on the NJC to weed out controversial justices who say one thing in the morning and another in the evening. These are the bad eggs giving the judiciary a bad name,” he added.
Ugochinyere raised broader concerns about public confidence in the justice system, warning that judicial inconsistency was eroding citizens’ respect for court pronouncements.
“Court pronouncements are supposed to be respected by citizens, particularly because they come from institutions established by law. But when people begin to hide behind technicalities, it raises concerns about the integrity of those institutions.
“How do we expect citizens to obey court judgments when many people no longer see justice as blind, but rather as something influenced by individuals and personal interests? That is the challenge before us,” the APP leader added.
He also noted that the controversy surrounding Justice Lifu’s ruling had sparked frustration across the country, with some of the anger directed at the presidency.
“This situation has generated a lot of reactions across the country. Many people are directing their frustrations at the President. Perhaps there is a need for greater clarity so that Nigerians understand exactly what is happening,” Ugochinyere said.
He nevertheless described Tuesday’s outcome as a victory for democracy and the rule of law.
“What happened today (Tuesday) is a victory, not just for democracy, but for the rule of law. We are happy because the courts have once again demonstrated their relevance in our democratic process,” he said.
Other parties speak
The Acting National Chairman of the Coalition of United Political Parties, Peter Ameh, took a philosophical approach in welcoming the ruling, invoking the words of the philosopher Edmund Burke to frame the significance of the appellate court’s intervention.
“The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing,” Ameh said.
He warned that what he described as hostile executive rascality and brazen judicial overreach must not be allowed to stand.
Also, the ADC presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar said in a statement posted on his X handle that the ruling was a positive development, noting with particular significance that INEC itself had initiated the application for the stay .
“I welcome the Court of Appeal’s decision to stay the execution of the Federal High Court judgment seeking the deregistration of our great party, the ADC, and four other political parties. It is particularly significant that INEC itself initiated the application for the stay,” he wrote.
Atiku, Mark protest
The former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar also criticised what he described as judicial contradictions in the ongoing legal dispute, warning that such developments had placed the judiciary under intense public scrutiny.
“The disturbing spectacle of judicial contradictions and politically charged rulings playing out in our courts has placed the judiciary under intense public scrutiny. As ADC National Chairman, Sen. David Mark, rightly observed, the judiciary itself is now on trial,” Atiku said.
He warned against any attempt to weaponise the courts against Nigeria’s democratic institutions.
“Any attempt to undermine Nigeria’s hard-won democracy through judicial manipulation is a grave danger to the Republic. If our democracy suffers further injury, history will demand accountability from those entrusted with dispensing justice,” he said.
Following the judgment given by Justice Lifu, the National Judicial Council has been urged to investigate Justice Peter Lifu over his decision to deliver judgment in a case that was already before the Court of Appeal.
The civil society organisation, Tap Initiative for FOR Citizens’ Development, on Tuesday in a statement called on the leadership of the judiciary to immediately investigate Justice Lifu over the judgment.
The call follows concerns over the alleged disregard for the hierarchy of courts and implications such actions could have on the judiciary and Nigeria’s democracy as the country moves closer to the 2027 general elections.
Justice Lifu had on Monday ordered the Independent National Electoral Commission to deregister five political parties over their alleged breach of Section 225(A) of the Constitution.
However, the judgment was reportedly delivered despite an order staying proceedings issued by the Abuja Division of the Court of Appeal on May 22.
The decision has since attracted criticism from several quarters, with critics accusing the judge of undermining democratic principles.
In a statement signed by its Executive Director, Mbasekei Martin Obono, the group urged the NJC to, among other things, “Determine whether the decision was delivered in disregard of pending appellate proceedings and a subsisting order of stay;
“Examine possible breaches of the judicial code of conduct; Take appropriate disciplinary action if misconduct is established; and
Reaffirm the authority of appellate courts and the supremacy of due process within the judiciary”.
The group recalled that the Chief Justice of Nigeria, Justice Kudirat Kekere-Ekun, had consistently emphasised the need for accountability, discipline and ethical conduct within the judiciary.
It disclosed that it had formally petitioned the CJN, in her capacity as Chairman of the NJC, seeking an investigation and possible disciplinary action against Justice Lifu.
According to the group, the petition presents an opportunity to reinforce the principles of accountability and demonstrate that judicial independence is not incompatible with responsibility.
“Tap Initiative expresses grave concern that at the time the said judgement was delivered, there were subsisting appellate proceedings before the Court of Appeal in respect of the same subject matter in Appeal No. CA/ABJ/CV/569/2026. Furthermore, the Court of Appeal had issued an Enrolment Order expressly granting a stay of proceedings in Suit No. FHC/ABJ/CS/2637/2025, being the very proceedings in which the Federal High Court subsequently proceeded to deliver judgment.
“This development raises profound constitutional and procedural concerns, as it appears that a valid order of stay and active appellate proceedings were in force at the material time. If established, this situation would constitute a serious affront to the doctrine of judicial hierarchy and the supervisory jurisdiction of the Court of Appeal within Nigeria’s constitutional order.
“Tap Initiative emphasizes that the integrity of Nigeria’s justice system depends fundamentally on strict adherence to judicial hierarchy, procedural discipline, and respect for appellate authority. Any deviation from these principles risks creating conflicting judicial outcomes, eroding legal certainty, and undermining public confidence in the courts”, he said.
The group stressed that the judiciary remains the last hope of the common citizen, arguing that its legitimacy is sustained not only by constitutional authority but also by unwavering public confidence in its fairness, discipline and respect for the rule of law.
It therefore called on the NJC to treat the matter with the urgency and seriousness it deserves in the interest of justice, democracy and national stability.
Meanwhile, the National Chairman of the African Democratic Congress, Senator David Mark, on Tuesday declared that the Nigerian judiciary, rather than the opposition party, is the institution facing scrutiny over the controversy surrounding the deregistration of the ADC and four other political parties.
Speaking at the ADC Strategic Communications Retreat in Abuja, the former Senate President accused the judiciary of actions capable of undermining public confidence in the nation’s democratic process, while questioning the conduct of Justice Peter Lifu in matters relating to the party.
According to Mark, the outcome of the controversy will test the credibility of the judiciary and the ability of the National Judicial Council to address concerns arising from the case.
“The ADC is not on trial. Rather, it is the judiciary that is on trial and the nation is waiting to see how the National Judicial Council is going to handle this precarious situation,” he said.
The ADC chairman expressed concern over what he described as unprecedented judicial actions, alleging that Justice Lifu ignored an order of the Court of Appeal directing a stay of proceedings in the matter.
He said it was difficult to comprehend how a judge could be involved in actions that appeared to contradict existing court directives.
Mark further alleged that the judge issued conflicting decisions regarding the status of the party within a short period.
“It is strange that a judge can order the Independent National Electoral Commission to pronounce a party dead and in less than 24 hours put the same party on trial,” he said.
The remarks come amid growing political tension over recent legal challenges affecting opposition parties ahead of preparations for the next electoral cycle.
Despite the legal setback, Mark urged party members not to lose confidence in the ADC, insisting that the party would emerge stronger from the dispute.
“Like I have said previously, our members should not worry about the shenanigans of the ruling party. We will go through all these turbulence because we are up to the task. By the time we are through all these, ADC will come out stronger,” he stated.
The former Senate President also accused the ruling All Progressives Congress APC of attempting to weaken opposition forces through distractions, claiming that the governing party was struggling to defend its record in office.
He alleged that the President Bola Tinubu-led government is diverting attention from its challenges by targeting opposition platforms.
Addressing party communicators at the retreat, Mark charged them to craft messages capable of expanding the ADC’s appeal across political divides, including among members of the ruling party.
He challenged the communications team to develop persuasive narratives that would attract more Nigerians to the ADC project. (PUNCH)
Politics
Ex-Gov Ugwuanyi reaffirms support for APC’s Ikeje Asogwa, disowns PDP candidate
Former Governor of Enugu State, Rt. Hon. Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi, has dismissed as false and misleading reports circulating on social media alleging that he is supporting the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, Barr. Nestor Ezeme, in the forthcoming Enugu North Senatorial District bye-election.
In a statement personally signed by him, Ugwuanyi described the claim as fake news orchestrated by political mischief makers seeking to gain undue advantage ahead of the poll scheduled for Saturday, June 20, 2026.
The former governor, who is now a member of the All Progressives Congress (APC), stated that he has no reason to support a candidate from another political party, stressing that his loyalty remains with the APC and all its candidates.
“As a committed member of the APC, I have no business supporting the candidate of another party. My support is firmly and unequivocally for all APC candidates, from the President down to the Councillor,” Ugwuanyi stated.
He specifically reaffirmed his support for the APC candidate in the Enugu North Senatorial bye-election, Chief Ikeje Asogwa, noting that his position on the contest has never been in doubt.
“I stand by Chief Ikeje Asogwa and my party, the APC. Any claim to the contrary is fake news and should be dismissed and disregarded by the public,” he said.

Ugwuanyi further alleged that the rumours were being spread by individuals bent on deceiving the electorate through name-dropping and misinformation.
“These false reports are the handiwork of mischief makers who have resorted to propaganda and deception in pursuit of electoral gains. The people should not be misled,” he added.
The former governor therefore urged members of the public and supporters across the Enugu North Senatorial District to disregard the reports and remain focused on the issues ahead of the election.
Politics
Kenneth Okonkwo dumps Atiku over appointment of VP candidate from South-South

Nollywood actor and politician Kenneth Okonkwo has withdrawn his support for former Vice President Atiku Abubakar following the announcement of former Transport Minister, Rotimi Amaechi, as his vice presidential running mate.
Okonkwo made his position known in a statement issued on his X (formerly Twitter) account on Monday, shortly after reports emerged that Atiku had selected Amaechi as his running mate for the 2027 presidential election.
The former Labour Party chieftain said he could not, in good conscience, campaign for any presidential ticket that excludes the South-East from both the presidential and vice-presidential positions.
“If it is confirmed that he has chosen a candidate from the South-South, I wish him well. I am not favourably disposed to campaigning for any presidential ticket that does not have a person of South-East origin as President or Vice in 2027,” Okonkwo stated.
His remarks effectively distance him from Atiku’s campaign and signal a major crack within the opposition coalition ahead of the 2027 general election.
Okonkwo argued that the South-East has remained politically disadvantaged since the return of democracy in 1999, noting that the region has neither produced a President nor a Vice President during the period.

“This Geo-Political Zone has neither produced a President or Vice President since 1999. To deny the South-East the opportunity to produce the President or Vice President in ADC in 2027 will amount to perpetuating the marginalisation,” he said.
The lawyer and political activist expressed disappointment over reports that the vice-presidential slot may have been ceded to the South-South despite the sacrifices made by leaders from the South-East in building and sustaining the coalition.
“I heard from the social media that ADC has picked its vice presidential candidate from the South-South. If this is true, it is unfortunate, as this will continue the crude marginalisation of the South-East,” he said.
Okonkwo recalled that the ADC was founded by former National Chairman, Chief Ralphs Nwosu, an indigene of the South-East, and argued that the party’s coalition arrangement was never intended to sideline the region.
“The ADC was founded by Ralphs Nwosu from the South-East in 2005. He made the sacrifice to give up the party in 2025 for the coalition to usher in a better Nigeria. He couldn’t have made that sacrifice to marginalise his own people,” he stated.
According to him, the South-East had already relinquished key positions within the coalition and deserved consideration for the vice-presidential slot.
“I did not join the coalition to assist in the further marginalisation of my own people. I am of the opinion that if we made a sacrifice to give up the National Chairman and the President, it will amount to unpardonable injustice to deny us the Vice President in 2027,” he said.
Okonkwo further disclosed that his only request to Atiku was to demonstrate his commitment to the political inclusion of the South-East by choosing a running mate from the region.
“The only favour I asked Atiku Abubakar, who openly declared that he is the pathway to the presidency of the South-East, is to show it by choosing someone from the South-East to be his Vice,” he stated.
He maintained that his political involvement has always been driven by the desire to build a Nigeria where no region, ethnic group or individual is marginalised.
“I joined politics to fight for a better Nigeria where no region, Geo-Political Zone, or person will be marginalised,” he added.
His declaration is expected to fuel fresh debate over zoning, equity and power-sharing within the opposition coalition as preparations intensify for the 2027 presidential election.
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