By Zeb Okeke

Despite the Court of Appeal judgement, which on Friday overturned an earlier ruling of an Abuja Federal High Court that annulled the August 2022 primary election that handed Hon. Chijioke Edeoga the governorship ticket of the Labour Party in Enugu and ordered a rerun, insightful pundits know that nothing has really changed for the former two-time commissioner in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) administration of Dr. Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi. If anything, the judgment has only denied an already fatigued Edeoga an honourable exit from a doomed gubernatorial odyssey.

Before the Court of Appeal judgement, rumours were thick that Edeoga was seriously considering throwing in the towel. Though it is still in the realm of rumour, there is hardly any smoke without fire. But whether it is true or not, what is not in doubt is that from the Olympian heights of a governor-in-waiting and heir apparent, as Edeoga and his foot soldiers made people believe before the PDP primary election, his gubernatorial bid had since lost steam.

For instance, Edeoga is just trying to recover from the ridicule by social media users following the viral video of him touting himself as “candidate” to the presidential flag bearer of the Labour Party, Mr. Peter Obi, who gave him a cold shoulder. It was an embarrassing video as he desperately sought Obi’s attention and a photo opportunity with the presidential hopeful during the 70th birthday celebration of former President-General of Ohanaeze Ndigbo Worldwide, Chief Nnia Nwodo, in December.

Even if that incident has come and gone, the deeper meanings are not lost on the politically informed. It is true that Obi, who is running on the strength of anti-old order or anti-establishment, tactfully tried to avoid being seen as promoting the product of a process already invalidated by a court of law as of then. But more important is that he didn’t want to be caught in the crossfire of the local contention between Edeoga and Odengene camps. Enugu Labour Party is clearly factionalised into Edeoga and Capt. Evarest Nnaji (Odengene) camps. Besides the lawsuit instituted by Nnaji, the division showed during the “Charity Begins at Home” rally of 28th August 2022 organised by Odengene at the Shoprite Enugu premises to mobilise support for Obi’s presidential bid. The event ended in fiasco as the Edeoga and Odengene camps caused scenes even in the presence of the National Secretary of the party, Alhaji Umar Farouk. Obi understands that identifying openly with Edeoga in the midst of the local division could cost him a lot, as he needs the support of both camps.

Also, Obi currently enjoys a good following in Enugu where the faceoff between PDP’s presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, and the G5 governors has taken life out of PDP’s presidential drive in the five affected states. Obi is still hopeful that some or all the five governors could work for him or at worst, stay neutral during the presidential election. Importantly, considering that Edeoga, even if the courts restore him as the candidate, lacks the war chest, followership, and charisma to disrupt the system against the PDP, let alone the capacity to dislodge the behemoth; and considering that the Labour Party is polarised in Enugu already, it was only political smartness on Obi’s part to avoid a head-on collision with the more entrenched, ‘loaded’ and sophisticated political system in Enugu where the PDP is the ruling party. Apparently, Edeoga is not going to get that kind of support from Obi as he had erroneously taught because Obi would also want to win his own election first.

Again, Edeoga’s decision to reduce his governorship ambition to a project of Enugu North/old Nsukka zone has hurt his aspiration badly. Isi-Uzo LGA, where Edeoga hails from was part of old Nsukka zone, but currently in Enugu East zone. But whereas the popular opinion is that power should rotate to Enugu East predominated by Nkanu in line with the zoning principle, Edeoga has not pretended about the fact that he is running as a candidate of Nsukka zone. He drove the message home by picking a running mate from Enugu West.

Meanwhile, despite the Court of Appeal judgement, chances are that Nnaji (Odenge) could still have the last laugh at the Supreme Court, as the issues he raised are germane. His Suit No. FHC/ABJ/CS/1422/2022 challenged Edeoga’s emergence as the Labour Party governorship candidate based on his alleged unlawful exclusion from the process contrary to the extant provisions of the Electoral Act 2022. Truth is that exclusion is a major factor in the adjudication of primary election matters. It is doubtful that his non-participation in the said primary election and upon which the honourable appellate court justices relied so much to upturn the trial court’s judgement applies in this instance because there is yet no evidence to show that the leadership of the party advertised the said primary in the media or wrote Odengene to inform him of the date, time and venue of the said primary election. And that is the crux of Odengene’s suit.

There is even the contention that the trial or lower court overreached itself and should not have given the Labour Party an opportunity to conduct another primary to field a governorship candidate in Enugu in the 2023 general elections. The Electoral Act is deliberate and clear that every party must conclude its primary election not later than 150 days to the governorship election. But the period from the date of the court judgment on November 9, 2022 to the governorship election scheduled to take place on March 11, 2023, is about 122 days. Therefore, having not complied with the relevant Sections of the Electoral Act 2022, and consequent upon the provisions of Section 84 (13) of the Act, does Labour Party still have the right to conduct another primary to field a governorship candidate as ordered by the lower court?

Clearly, however we look at it, the Court of Appeal is not the final court in this matter and uncertainties will persist in the Edeoga and Enugu Labour Party until the Supreme Court adjudicates the matter.

So, realistically speaking, the uncertainties surrounding the candidacy of Enugu Labour Party’s gubernatorial ticket and even the party’s participation in that election, coupled with the internal crisis in Enugu Labour Party, the trust deficit created by Edeoga’s defection to the Labour Party despite earlier signing an MOU with other PDP governorship aspirants of Enugu East Senatorial zone to support any among them endorsed by Governor Ugwuanyi, his geopolitical misalignment, and the fact that he is not showing any promises or the needed capacity to dislodge the PDP, have combined to take the wind off his governorship sail.

For instance, elections cost good money everywhere in the world. But the above-named factors have combined to deny Edeoga the needed war chest, as those he was counting on to bankroll his governorship project have backtracked. Politicians and businessmen are no Father Christmas and nobody wants to invest his money in a bad market that the Edeoga governorship run has become. Apart from clear prospects of losing their money, supporting a losing candidate against the eventual winner comes with collateral political and economic consequences.

So, while Edeoga puts a façade of hope and his supporters jubilate over the Appeal Court judgment, things are not truly looking up for him. In fact, things are going south for him and he knows it. His outdoor and radio advertising are few and far between. He is not campaigning around the state like his PDP counterpart. In fact, he is yet to launch a manifesto and recently confessed to the Enugu branch of the Nigerian Bar Association that he had none. He knows deep down his heart that even if he finally flies the Labour Party’s gubernatorial flag, he could only wobble through the 2023 election to save face, but certainly not to win. When the chronicles of the Enugu 2023 general election is written, it would likely be written of him: How are supposed heirs apparent fallen and political ambitions perished.

Okeke is an Enugu-based analyst