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Facts, not fear: A point-by-point response to Atiku Abubakar on Nigeria’s reform journey, By Bayo Onanuga

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President Bola Tinubu
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Politics thrives on disagreement. Democracy demands it. But disagreements must be rooted in facts, not frozen snapshots of history. When yesterday’s data are presented as today’s reality, the public deserves context.

Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, in his typical pastime, has accused the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu of fiscal recklessness, citing excess borrowing in the 2024 budget, questioning the removal of fuel subsidy, criticising tax reforms, concocting an oil windfall of N7.98 trillion, and suggesting that Nigeria is drifting economically.

His concerns, though misplaced, deserve a response—not because criticisms should be silenced – but because Nigerians should have a fuller picture of where the country is today. Here are the real issues Atiku and his courtiers should apprise themselves of:

A Debate Anchored in 2024 Cannot Explain Nigeria in 2026

Perhaps the first observation is chronological. It is curious that in the middle of 2026, the opposition’s principal economic argument remains anchored to developments in the 2024 fiscal year. Economies are dynamic. Reforms are processes, not events. Judging a reform programme solely by its earliest and most painful phase is like judging chemotherapy by the nausea it induces while ignoring the remission it seeks to achieve.

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The Nigerian economy that underwent painful adjustment in 2024 has evolved considerably. Following the exchange-rate reset, Nigeria’s dollar-denominated GDP fell to about $253 billion, reflecting the immediate effect of currency realignment. Since then, figures from statistics bodies and multilateral agencies like the IMF indicate that it has recovered significantly to approximately $377 billion, representing an increase of roughly 49 per cent from that post-adjustment trough. Likewise, Naira GDP has expanded from about ₦314 trillion in 2024 to around ₦530 trillion, a 69% increase reflecting both higher economic activity and price changes. These figures should continue to be assessed alongside real GDP growth, inflation, and household welfare. They do illustrate that the economy did not remain frozen at its most difficult moment.

The reforms were never advertised as painless. They were presented as necessary structural adjustments intended to correct long-standing distortions, including distortions created in the Obasanjo-Atiku years, 1999-2007.

Borrowing Must Be Judged Alongside Economic Capacity

On the matter of Nigeria’s debts, it is important to ask a broader question: What is Nigeria’s capacity to sustain her debt? For debt, in itself, is not the defining measure of fiscal health. What matters are the size of the economy; our revenue-generating capacity; debt servicing costs; the purposes for which funds are borrowed; and whether borrowed resources finance productive investments or recurrent consumption. Nigeria’s debts have been acquired for productive, long-term infrastructural and investment purposes – according to the law.

Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio remains relatively modest (at barely 40%) compared with many peer economies and advanced countries (South Africa (85%), Egypt (80%), Ghana (60%), Kenya (75%), USA (130%), UK (110%), China (300% – unofficially), even though debt-service pressures have historically been significant. Still, the Tinubu Administration has seen a reduction in the debt service-to-revenue ratio, from a high of nearly 100% in December 2022 to less than 60% today. This is a remarkable achievement that shows that Nigeria’s revenue efficiency has improved, while debt management remains conservative and astute. All the same, the more meaningful question is whether borrowing finances investments that expand productive capacity and future revenues, rather than merely postponing difficult choices.

Where Did the Subsidy Savings Go?

For decades, economists across ideological divides criticised Nigeria’s fuel subsidy as fiscally costly and poorly targeted. Even before the current administration, several international institutions had argued that the subsidy consumed resources that could otherwise support development. Nigerians suffered over the years as a vast proportion of our resources were deployed to pay fuel-subsidy merchants. An idea that was mooted in the early 1970s, when Nigeria saw her first oil boom in the aftermath of the Yom Kippur War, had become toxic and a drainpipe on the economy. It must be said that the government in which Alhaji Atiku was Vice President waded through that toxic phenomenon, and never did the needful. The current administration deserves commendation for being able to get rid of something that has become a lodestone around the neck of our collective patrimony.

The visible consequence of subsidy removal has been the sharp improvement in revenues accruing to states and local governments through the Federation Account. Higher statutory allocations have expanded fiscal space at the subnational level, enabling many states to increase spending on roads, schools, hospitals, salaries, pensions, and social programmes. Independent assessments, including those from the World Bank, have noted improvements in public revenues and subnational capital spending, which is another word for infrastructural development, following major fiscal reforms. This means that President Tinubu has tactically placed more responsibility for socioeconomic development on states and local governments, while providing requisite funding. This is true federalism and a bold statement on the much-vaunted subject of economic restructuring – another important issue gallantly avoided by the government in which Alhaji Atiku served and wielded great influence.

The Tax Reforms: Progressive, Not Punitive

Another of Atiku’s uninformed criticisms suggests that the Tinubu administration chose to tax Nigerians more. This is blatantly false, and the statement is an attempt to deceive and dissemble.

The objective of the tax reforms is not merely to increase collections but to create a broader, more equitable tax system. The reforms are intended to reduce the burden on many low-income earners (people earning N1 million per annum and below) and small businesses (with turnover of N100 million and below) while strengthening compliance among higher-income individuals and profitable enterprises – many of whom had avoided or evaded taxes under the cover of informality for decades. The underlying principle is that those with greater capacity should bear a larger share of the tax burden, while micro-enterprises and vulnerable households receive greater protection. Nigerians understand that to have a fine, working nation, we all must contribute to her prosperity. And we are on course.

Health: From Infrastructure to Access

Over the past three years, the Federal Government, working with states, has expanded efforts to rehabilitate and upgrade primary healthcare facilities, strengthen tertiary hospitals, improve access to essential medicines, and broaden maternal and child health interventions.

The administration has also publicised initiatives aimed at reducing the financial barriers to maternal care, including programmes that support access to caesarean sections for eligible indigent mothers through public facilities. Over 100 facilities across Nigeria provide free caesarean operations for indigent mothers. Thousands of women across the country, from Sokoto to Port Harcourt, have benefited. Three world-class cancer centres are operational in Kubwa, Enugu and Katsina, while cancer centres in 13 states have been expanded. As at April 2026, over 3,000 Primary Healthcare Centres have been revitalised, upgraded, and refurbished, while over 78,000 frontline workers have been retrained in 3 years. This is verifiable information, and no mean feat.

Education: Investing in Human Capital

Federal and state governments have undertaken school rehabilitation, investments in technical and vocational education, digital learning initiatives, and expanded access to tertiary education finance in the last 3 years. Specifically, over 11,000 projects have been embarked upon by the Universal Basic Education Commission, with collaboration from the federal and state governments. This can be regarded as one of the boldest moves in the history of Nigeria to reposition education at primary and secondary levels.

Among the flagship initiatives is the Nigerian Education Loan Fund (NELFUND), which has enabled hundreds of thousands of students to access loans for tuition and upkeep, reducing financial barriers to higher education. Over 1.64 million students have benefited across the country, with NELFUND disbursing over N303 billion through 300 higher institutions. Again, another unprecedented initiative touching lives positively. All over social media, Nigerians can see how relieved and jubilant Nigerian students have become. Add to this the fact that President Tinubu has seen to an end to strikes by university lecturers, such that a four-year programme does not go beyond four years, a great relief to students and parents.

Infrastructure: Building for Tomorrow

Nigeria’s infrastructure agenda continues across transport, energy, and public works, with ongoing projects in federal highways and bridges, rail modernisation, inland dry ports and logistics, power transmission and distribution, airport redevelopment, gas infrastructure, housing, and digital connectivity. Many state governments have simultaneously accelerated road construction, urban renewal, healthcare, and education projects, aided by stronger fiscal inflows. The cumulative effect is an increase in public investment aimed at reducing logistics costs and supporting private-sector growth, the triggers for the 49% leap in GDP since 2024 (in Dollar terms), and a 69% leap in Naira terms. There is a lot more to come.

Nigeria is certainly not over-borrowed

The unvarnished truth is that Nigeria’s revenue-to-GDP ratio is still ranked among the lowest globally, limiting the government’s ability to fund public services without borrowing.

Recent reforms have started to improve revenue mobilisation, broaden the tax base, reduce leakages, and strengthen public financial management. Certainly, improvements in revenue collection are helping reduce fiscal vulnerabilities. But this is a process that has commenced. Viewed from this angle, it is evident that President Tinubu has taken the Nigerian economy down a path of unprecedented reinvention and rejuvenation.

The debt debate should, therefore, examine not only how much Nigeria borrows but also whether the country’s capacity to generate and manage revenue continues to improve. At a mere 40% debt-to-GDP ratio and less than 60% debt service-to-revenue ratio (improving), the argument of overborrowing is alarmist and does not stick.

Oil Windfall? Atiku and his handlers reveal analytical deficiency

There is no such windfall of N7.98 trillion. Any incremental revenue from higher oil prices is reflected in the monthly FAAC figures. While the average price for the half-year 2026 for Brent is around $90 compared to the $64.85 benchmark, the average daily production fell short at about 1.6m bpd compared to the forecast of 1.84m bpd. The production shortfall partly offset the price premium. In addition, some crude volume had been pledged for loans used to pay for the wasteful subsidy in the past, which the President was bold enough to remove, stopping the bleeding but not immediately translating into available revenue.

The convenient mistake many analysts make is to multiply the oil price by the daily crude production volume to determine revenue to the government. Such analyses ignore the cost of production, the share of crude belonging to the oil-producing companies and the impact of crude sale contracts such as forward contracts designed to hedge against price volatility.

Atiku will do well to show the workings for his N7.98 trillion oil windfall.

Conclusion: For Nigeria, Forward Ever!

History rarely remembers governments for the popularity of their decisions in the moment. It remembers whether those decisions ultimately strengthened or weakened the nation.

President Tinubu’s administration has chosen to dismantle several long-standing policy distortions that previous governments acknowledged but often deferred. The reforms have carried undeniable costs, and legitimate questions remain about implementation, inflation, and social protection. Yet describing the entire programme as “financial recklessness” overlooks the broader context of structural change, fiscal rebalancing, and efforts to improve macroeconomic stability.

A mature national conversation should move beyond slogans. It should assess reforms against measurable outcomes rather than isolated episodes. We welcome elevated discourses that examine the philosophical underpinnings of President Tinubu’s approach to the economy, not pedestrianism. Nigerians need elevated standards of living, which requires immediate sacrifices. But indeed, the worst is over, as the effects of the necessary economic chemotherapy were more severe in 2023 and 2024. All economic watchers are aware that in November 2025, inflation rates in Nigeria fell to 14.4%. Because of the disruption caused by the Middle East War, the rate shot up to 15.91%. But it has begun another descent as economic analysts project that inflation will trend towards 12% by the end of the year.

As part of measures to bring relief to Nigerians severely impacted by the economic reforms, the Federal Government recently launched the ward-centric NG-CARES, HOPE and SOLID programmes worth more than $3 billion to strengthen primary healthcare, basic education, and support for vulnerable communities. This is in addition to the Humanitarian Ministry’s cash transfers to 15 million vulnerable households, helping to lift them out of extreme poverty.

Nigeria’s economy is not yet where it aspires to be. But neither is it where it stood at the height of its structural distortions or in the bygone years of fiscal waste and slackness. The fundamental reforms will continue to expand opportunity, strengthen institutions, and deliver tangible improvements in the lives of Nigerians. That is the focus of President Tinubu. All else is an attempt by political carpetbaggers to gain attention.

Bayo Onanuga, Special Adviser to the President, (Information & Strategy)
August 2, 2026

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“It’s not debatable, we can’t go back,” Mbah Backs Tinubu on Fuel Subsidy Removal

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…Says “We’ve delivered good governance to Enugu”

Governor of Enug State, Dr. Peter Mbah, has doubled down in his support for the removal of fuel subsidy by President Bola Tinubu’s administration, saying it was undebatable and inconceivable for anyone to imagine a return to the old order.

Mbah spoke at the “Meet the Candidates” town hall meeting organised by Afia TV in Enugu on Wednesday, where he also said that his administration had delivered good governance to the people of the state across all sectors.

He described it as a pathetic misconception of the country’s situation and the direction it was headed for anyone to talk about the reintroduction of fuel subsidy.

“If you reintroduce fuel subsidy today, we will lose ten times whatever we are currently trying to gain in terms of the removal of subsidy. The poverty rate that you are going to experience will be very high because the naira would be automatically devalued.

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“We cannot go back to subsidy. And I do not think it is in the interest of the country for us to even debate that.

“Again, we should not even debate it because we do not want to send a signal to prospective investors that we are contemplating it. That would take us back. It is going to create panic in the system. It is going to get investors to pull back.

“Those that are coming in today to invest in that sector will become jittery. So, it is not even a subject to debate. It is something that we have moved on from, and we should be thinking about how to ensure that the natural benefits cascade to the households, create jobs and generate wealth for our people,” he said.

He said the nation should focus on how to further encourage private capital to flow, noting the growth the nation had experienced in the stock exchange space.

He added that Tinubu’s policies had stabilised the macro indicators, thus encouraging foreign direct investment.

“You can see quite a lot of funds coming into our country, not just portfolio investments, but also direct investments. It is also going to strengthen because the macro indicators are right,” he stated.

Mbah maintained that whereas fuel subsidy removal enables the government to target the less privileged, fuel subsidy as earlier practised benefited the rich more.

“By the way, I do not think the subsidy we practised before the President removed it was even the right one for the country because even the people we were looking at benefiting from it were only insignificantly benefiting from it. It was largely beneficial to our wealthy folks.

“But now, you can almost notice that the government is doing that in targeting the poor, using proceeds from subsidy removal. The government is aggressive on cash transfers. There is also the programme where the government is targeting 1,000 persons per ward across the entire country to be able to provide seed capital for them to become productive,” he added.

Meanwhile, on his stewardship so far, Mbah said his administration had kept faith with the people of Enugu State, delivering good governance across all sectors in line with his campaign manifesto.

He said the people of the state only needed to imagine where the state was before his inauguration as governor and where it is currently headed.

“Let us imagine the Enugu we knew four years ago. Let us just imagine an Enugu without Hotel Presidential. Let us imagine an Enugu without the International Conference Centre. Let us imagine an Enugu without Enugu Air. Let us imagine Enugu without the transport terminals, the 268 Smart Green Schools, 260 Type 2 Primary Healthcare Centres.

“You do not want them to imagine an Enugu without the International Hospital. You do not want them to imagine an Enugu without the CNG buses, the Nigergas. I think the list is endless.

“But I even think that we can stretch that imagination further because the work ahead will be more profound. Just imagine an Enugu where our children are receiving education that prepares them for the world because they have been imbued with evolving 21st-century skills. Imagine again an Enugu where you do not have any part of the city with an unpaved road.

“Also, imagine an Enugu in four years’ time that generates 660 megawatts of electricity; where we are able to provide 24-hour power supply; where you cannot come into your house and have the light off; and where people can run their businesses for a whole week without worrying about the cost of diesel. Just imagine an Enugu where you generate electricity and the people of Enugu are buying that at 120 naira because they own the coal that feeds the power plant.

“Imagine an Enugu where you now have to ride, not just on our CNG buses, but you have the monorail that can take you from point A to point B. Imagine an Enugu where you can fly from here to the United Kingdom, to the United States and other parts of the world,” he charged the electorate.

He urged the people to keep faith with the journey of greatness, growth and development, defending the gains of his first term and guaranteeing the promises of his second term by working for his re-election.

“If these imaginations capture our fancy, then we have a duty to fight for it. We do have a duty to continue to make sure that the bar does not come down and that the standard we have set in Enugu is sustained,” he concluded.

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Mbah: Enugu Now Produces 120 Million Litres of Water Daily, Expands Agricultural Investment

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Enugu Governor, Dr Peter Mbah
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By Tony Edike

Enugu State Governor, Peter Mbah, has said the state has increased its daily water production capacity from two million litres to 120 million litres, while intensifying efforts to ensure reliable water supply reaches households across Enugu metropolis.

Mbah disclosed this during a town hall meeting held at the International Conference Center in Enugu on Wednesday , where he addressed issues relating to water supply, agricultural development, regional security cooperation and the state’s economic prospects.

The governor explained that although the state had significantly expanded its water production capacity, ageing pipelines, burst pipes, encroached water corridors and other infrastructure challenges had slowed the distribution of water to some communities.

According to him, the state initially needed about 80 million litres of water daily to ensure adequate supply to homes across Enugu metropolis, against the two million litres being produced when his administration took office.

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He said the government began procuring critical equipment before his inauguration to accelerate the implementation of its 180-day water supply commitment.

“We front-loaded the procurement because some of the items we needed to procure were long-lead items,” Mbah said, explaining that some equipment, particularly large pumps, required several months to manufacture and deliver.

He added that the government also reactivated the Ninth Mile water scheme, which had remained dormant for years, contributing to the increase in production capacity.

However, Mbah said the expansion exposed weaknesses in the existing distribution network, including brittle pipes that had exceeded their design life, asbestos pipes and sections of the pipeline network obstructed by buildings.

He said the government decided against demolishing citizens’ buildings along affected pipeline routes, opting instead to develop new distribution networks.

According to the governor, Enugu metropolis has been divided into 14 zones, with work ongoing to extend water supply to the last mile.

He said the government had also procured horizontal drilling equipment to enable underground pipe installation without unnecessarily cutting open roads.

“We have a buffer of over 50 per cent to serve the entire city of Enugu. What we’re now dealing with is making sure that the water gets to the last mile,” he said.

Mbah assured residents that his administration remained committed to resolving the water supply challenge, adding that he received daily briefings on progress in the sector.

Enugu Opens Up Agricultural Sector to Investors

The governor also highlighted his administration’s agricultural development initiatives, saying the state was creating opportunities for commercial farming, mechanisation and agro-processing.

He disclosed that Enugu had more than 167,000 hectares of land available as a land bank for commercial agricultural investments, with some communities voluntarily making land available for farming and wealth creation.

Mbah said the government was engaging investors across different parts of the state and had established a tractor assembly plant to support agricultural mechanisation.

He added that the state had more than 60,000 farmers in its database, cultivating over 80,000 hectares of land, with the coordinates of their farms documented.

According to him, the government recently distributed more than 60,000 bags of fertiliser free of charge to farmers, alongside other farming tools, improved seedlings and handheld tractors.

He said the interventions were aimed at increasing agricultural productivity and helping smallholder farmers transition from subsistence farming to mechanised agriculture.

Mbah further disclosed that the government was constructing agro-transformation centres across the state’s three senatorial zones, in addition to a special agro-processing zone intended to support large-scale agricultural production and processing.

He also announced that an integrated livestock facility capable of accommodating more than 20,000 cattle was under construction around the Obollo and Eha-Amufu axis, while Enugu was among three states selected for a federal government integrated poultry project.

The governor said the agricultural initiatives were designed not only to increase food production but also to encourage processing, attract private investment and create employment.

Security: Mbah Cites Federal Support, Regional Intelligence Sharing

On security, Mbah said Enugu State had benefited from its relationship with the Federal Government, particularly through support for security operations and improved collaboration among security agencies.

Responding to concerns about insecurity along interstate border areas, including flashpoints connecting Enugu with neighbouring states, the governor said intelligence sharing and regional cooperation had improved.

He disclosed that the establishment of the state’s Distress Response Squad received approval from the Federal Government.

Mbah also said the state was working closely with the Nigerian Army, Police, Department of State Services, Nigerian Air Force and Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps to strengthen security operations.

According to him, although regional collaboration might not always be reflected in a single physical command centre, intelligence sharing and cooperation among security agencies had increased.

He maintained that Enugu’s relationship with the Federal Government had brought benefits beyond security, including opportunities to attract national events, conferences and other activities to the state.

Enugu Repositioning Itself as Regional Hub

The governor said Enugu was regaining its position as a regional hub after years in which it was increasingly being displaced by other locations.

He cited the hosting of national conferences and activities, including the National Council on Agriculture and other major events, as evidence of renewed interest in the state.

Mbah said the return of such activities was creating opportunities for local businesses and residents through increased economic activity.

He argued that reconnecting Enugu to national economic and institutional networks was essential to sustaining its regional importance.

Mbah Defends Federal Economic Reforms

The governor also defended the Federal Government’s economic reforms, arguing that stabilising the macroeconomic environment was necessary to attract private investment and stimulate growth.

He cited Nigeria’s foreign reserves, which he put at about $58 billion, and what he described as improved foreign exchange stability as indicators of progress.

Mbah said allowing the foreign exchange market to respond to market forces had helped address pressures that previously contributed to the depletion of the country’s reserves and weakened confidence in the naira.

He argued that economic stability would encourage private capital to enter the economy, leading to job creation, increased earnings and a reduction in poverty.

According to him, the reforms required political courage and should be assessed by their impact on economic indicators and growth.

“We are on the right path, and I can tell you from the numbers we’re seeing and the growth we are witnessing now, we are seeing the light at the end of the tunnel,” he said.

The governor maintained that the benefits of economic stabilisation would become more evident as investment increased and economic activity expanded.

He said the state government would continue pursuing its infrastructure, agricultural and security initiatives as part of efforts to improve living conditions and strengthen Enugu’s economic position.

 

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FG confirms Ebola case in FCT, identifies 44 contacts

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The Federal Government has confirmed a case of Ebola disease in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), identifying 44 close contacts as health authorities intensify efforts to contain the infection and prevent further spread.

The Coordinating Minister of Health and Social Welfare, Professor Muhammad Ali Pate, disclosed this in a statement issued on Tuesday, October 20, 2026, following laboratory confirmation of the case.

According to the statement, the patient is a woman who recently arrived in Nigeria on an international flight from Uganda.

She was admitted to a private hospital in the FCT, where she received treatment for several days before the diagnosis was confirmed.

The Minister said the patient was currently in isolation and receiving medical care.

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He added that the Federal Ministry of Health and Social Welfare, the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (NCDC), the FCT Health Services Secretariat and other relevant authorities were working together to contain the infection.

Contact tracing has commenced, with public health teams identifying and monitoring individuals who may have been exposed to the patient, including healthcare workers, patients, caregivers and travel contacts.

The government has also intensified disease surveillance, while the hospital where the patient received treatment is being supported to strengthen its infection prevention and control measures.

The Federal Government called on public and private healthcare facilities across the country to remain on high alert and promptly report suspected cases to public health authorities.

It urged healthcare workers to maintain a high index of suspicion, identify and isolate suspected cases without delay, and strictly observe infection prevention and control protocols.

The government also explained that Ebola spreads through direct contact with the blood or other body fluids of an infected person who is sick or has died from the disease, as well as contact with contaminated materials.

It further clarified that a person infected with Ebola cannot transmit the disease before symptoms develop.

The government urged Nigerians to remain informed and follow public health guidance as authorities continue efforts to contain the confirmed case and prevent further transmission.

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