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Middle-East crises: Experts predict tougher times for poor Nigerians

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Isreal President, Benjamin Netanyahu, U.S President Donald Trump and late Iran President Ali Hosseini Khamenei
Isreal President, Benjamin Netanyahu, U.S President Donald Trump and late Iran President Ali Hosseini Khamenei
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•  Higher prices to directly squeeze low income Nigerians – Egbomeade

Amidst escalation in the Middle-East crises, financial and economy experts have indicated that the spill-over effect will worsen economic hardship in Nigeria especially amongst the vulnerable households.

Though they noted some positive impacts of the crises on the country’s macroeconomic outlook and fiscal position, the overall outcome, they believe, would be largely negative.

The positive outlook according to them includes, higher crude export receipts, improved foreign exchange inflows, strengthening of external reserves, and increased revenue allocations to all tiers of government.

However, they also noted that even these positives are still challenged and more of probability saying revenue gains are critically dependent on production levels. Nigeria’s current crude output has fluctuated around 1.4–1.6 million barrels per day, below installed capacity and vulnerable to oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and underinvestment in upstream infrastructure.

Furthermore they explained that if the conflict escalates and dampens global growth, oil demand could weaken, leading to price corrections, concluding that the fiscal upside is inherently fragile.

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They added that geopolitical instability also triggers global risk aversion noting that during periods of uncertainty, capital tends to migrate toward safe-haven assets such as U.S. Treasury securities and gold.

Consequently, emerging and less developed markets such as Nigeria frequently experience portfolio outflows in such episodes.

On the negative impact of the Middle-East crises on poor Nigerians, the analysts said the immediate domestic risk lies in inflation transmission falling out from increases in petrol and other prices, which would erode purchasing power of the low income households.

Experts’ insight

Speaking to Saturday Vanguard on the situation, Dr. Muda Yusuf, Chief Executive Officer Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), said: “The escalating conflict involving Iran, the United States, and Israel has injected a new wave of geopolitical risk into the global economy. Energy markets are the first transmission channel.

“For Nigeria, an oil-dependent economy where crude accounts for over 85 percent of export earnings and about half of government revenue, the implications are significant. The effects will be both positive and adverse, depending on the duration of the conflict and the quality of domestic policy responses.”

Continuing, he stated: “For Nigeria, every increase in crude oil price translates into additional export earnings and fiscal revenues.

‘‘The immediate benefits include: Higher crude export receipts, improved foreign exchange inflows, strengthening of external reserves, and increased FAAC allocations to all tiers of government

“However, revenue gains are critically dependent on production levels. Nigeria’s current crude output has fluctuated around 1.4–1.6 million barrels per day, below installed capacity and vulnerable to oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and underinvestment in upstream infrastructure. Without a sustained improvement in production efficiency and security, Nigeria may not fully optimise any price windfall.

There is also a medium-term risk. If the conflict escalates and dampens global growth, oil demand could weaken, leading to price corrections. The fiscal upside is therefore inherently fragile.

Yusuf also noted that there are exchange rate implications and capital flow risks.

Higher oil prices typically strengthen Nigeria’s current account balance and improve foreign exchange liquidity. This could reduce short-term pressure on the naira and reinforce investor confidence.

In recent years, exchange rate stability has been closely tied to oil receipts and capital inflows. Improved export earnings could: Boost gross external reserves, enhance FX market liquidity, reduce speculative pressure on the currency.

“However, geopolitical instability also triggers global risk aversion. During periods of uncertainty, capital tends to migrate toward safe-haven assets such as U.S. Treasury securities and gold. Emerging markets frequently experience portfolio outflows in such episodes.

Given Nigeria’s relatively shallow capital market and sensitivity to foreign portfolio investment, volatility in global financial conditions could offset part of the FX gains from higher oil prices. The net exchange rate impact will therefore depend on the balance between stronger oil inflows and potential capital reversals.”

Yusuf listed inflation transmission and welfare pressures as part of the impact of the conflict on Nigeria.

He stated: ‘‘The most immediate domestic risk lies in inflation transmission. Nigeria operates a deregulated downstream petroleum regime. Higher international crude prices feed directly into higher petrol, diesel and aviation fuel costs.

The likely channels include: rising pump prices, increased transportation/logistics costs, higher food distribution expenses, escalating manufacturing and logistics costs.

Energy costs have a strong multiplier effect in Nigeria’s inflation dynamics.”

It will reduce purchasing power of the poor – CIS President

Commenting, Oluropo Dada President, Chartered Institute of Stockbrokers, CIS said: “The biggest impact will come through higher fuel, transport, and food prices. If the conflict keeps crude oil around $95–$105 per barrel (from about $70–$75 earlier in the year), petrol prices in Nigeria could rise from around N800 per litre to N1,200–N1,500 per litre due to higher landing cost. Transportation fares could increase by 20–40%, which will immediately affect food prices. ‘‘Since low-income households spend about 60–70% of their income on food and transport, even a 10–15% rise in prices significantly reduces their purchasing power. Food inflation could reverse its downwards trend and rise by another 5–8 percentage points, worsening hardship for the poor.

‘‘Although higher oil prices may increase revenue, the overall impact could still be negative. Nigeria’s budget benchmark is about $64–$65 per barrel, so prices near $100 per barrel could add roughly $25–$35 extra per barrel, translating to billions of naira in additional monthly revenue.

‘‘However, higher global energy prices will also increase import costs, and Nigeria still imports a large share of refined fuel.

‘‘Inflation could rise by 3–6%, forcing interest rates to stay high, which slows business activity and borrowing.

‘‘Foreign investors may also move funds to safer markets during war, leading to pressure on the naira and weaker capital inflows.

‘‘In the long run, uncertainty in global markets can reduce investment, slow GDP growth below the current 4% range, and delay economic recovery.”

Higher prices to directly squeeze low income Nigerians – Egbomeade

Commenting as well, Clifford Egbomeade, Economy and Communications Analyst, said: “Before the Iran–Israel conflict escalated, Brent crude traded around $65–$70 per barrel. As tensions intensified, prices spiked above $100 per barrel, at times reaching an intra day high near $116 per barrel, before moderate pullbacks.

‘‘That jump of nearly 50 percent in global crude oil price matters for millions of Nigerians because the domestic fuel market still responds closely to international benchmarks.

“For low income households, the immediate transmission mechanism is fuel price inflation. When crude prices rally, the cost of refined products tends to follow.

‘‘Although Nigeria now has significant local refining capacity, refineries still source a meaningful share of crude at prices linked to global markets. This raises the landing cost of petrol and diesel, and businesses pass those costs to consumers.

‘‘Already in recent days, the gantry price of petrol increased from about N995 per litre to N1,175 or more, and industry groups warn it could approach N2,000 per litre if the crisis persists.

‘‘Diesel has seen similar upward pressure, moving toward N3,000 per litre in some projections.

‘‘Higher fuel prices directly squeeze low income Nigerians. Transport costs are among the first to rise because commercial drivers and riders must cover more expensive petrol or diesel.

‘‘When fares increase, workers who depend on daily commuting must spend a larger share of their limited income on transport. For a market trader or wage earner, that often means cutting back on household essentials.

‘‘Fuel price inflation also ripples into the food chain. Nigerian agriculture relies heavily on road transport and diesel powered equipment to move produce from farms to urban markets.

‘‘A litre of petrol rising from roughly N850 before the crisis to over N1,000 now can push up the prices of basic foodstuffs. Traders and farmers pass increased logistics costs onto consumers, contributing to higher market prices for staples. For example, prices of pepper and tomatoes in some urban markets have recently doubled or tripled.

“Ultimately, although higher global oil prices can increase national export revenues, the lived experience for low income Nigerians is more acute inflation in transport, food, and everyday goods, worsening financial strain for households that already spend most of their income on basic needs.”

It will constrict consumers’ disposable income, exacerbate suffering – Adonri

Commenting also, David Adonri, Analyst and Executive Vice Chairman at High Cap Securities Limited, said: “The low income class in Nigeria has been suffering economic hardship before and after the recent market reforms. Inflation has been the main culprit.

‘‘The global trade disruption arising from the Iran War has started pushing inflation to dangerous levels. Price of petrol has surged and it could reverse the current trend of moderation in inflation.

‘‘This can constrict consumers’ disposable income and exacerbate suffering.

“While FGN benefits from the rising Crude Oil price, the attendant inflation that will arise can be injurious to the economy.”

Investors are pulling out already – Tumba

In his own reaction over the war, Simon Tumba, a Lagos based Business Executive over the, said: “ In almost everything; transportation, food, medications and provisions, everything will go up. Sadly there’s no end in sight concerning this war. It’s tough already.

“On the setbacks to the economy, investors are pulling out already. Although the government will earn more revenue from oil receipts, we are not confident they’d manage the funds well considering the elections coming next year and the experiences of the last few years where revenue targets were not met adding to more loans, yet capital budget execution has been almost zero.

Therefore foreign direct investment will suffer, while living expenses will escalate. Inflation may hit the 20s again.” (Vanguard)

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Mbah unveils over 10,000 Milestone Achievements, says Enugu on Course to Greatness

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….Records 1,521km of roads, 7,000 classrooms, 260 Type-2 PHCs, sweeping reforms

Governor of Enugu State, Dr. Peter Mbah, has unveiled a compendium of more than 10,000 milestones recorded in the first term of his administration across critical sectors of the Enugu State economy.

The compendium, entitled “A Thousand and One Reasons Why Dr. Peter Ndubuisi Mbah Should be Re-elected as Governor of Enugu State,” was presented to the public at the International Conference Centre, Enugu, on Wednesday.

The compendium of milestones records, among others, over 1,521 kilometres of constructed and reconstructed roads, over 7,000 classrooms, 260 Type-2 Primary Healthcare Centres, Enugu Air, the New Enugu Smart City, and the revamp of moribund assets.

Represented by the Deputy Governor, Barr. Ifeanyi Ossai, Mbah said the compendium aligns with the Citizens Charter, also known as Executive Order 001, which he executed immediately he was sworn into office on 29th May 2023 to emphasise his administration’s commitment to accountability, traceability and transparency.

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He, however, said the compendium highlighted the administration’s philosophy of disruptive innovation and its focus on large-scale infrastructure, noting that it did not contain all that had been done up to the day of unveiling.

“Our assignment today is not just to unveil the Citizens Charter via the compendium. It is a lot more than that. It is a conversation on the sacrosanct duty and responsibility you gave to us to midwife and preside over your resources.

“But above all, it is important to note that the document we are about to unveil does not entirely capture everything this government has done because, given the time it took to prepare this document, there was a cut-off point running months behind.

“So, this document that we shall unveil shortly does not in any particular material represent the actual successful modest achievements of this government as at 9th of September 2026.”

He thanked those who believed in his vision and worked for his election in 2023 and urged those affected in any way by the tough decisions the administration had to make, assuring them that Enugu was on its way to greatness as a $30bn economy and the preferred destination for investment, business, tourism, and living.

“I also want to thank all those who made sacrifices, who lost their friends because they felt supporting us was the right thing to do. I want to thank all those who invested their resources. I want to thank all those who took pains in very unimaginable circumstances to ensure that Enugu moves to the next level.

“But what you must take home with you is that our intentions are noble. What we try to do is to put Enugu on a reversible path of greatness. What we try to do is to ensure that Enugu will not compete with Nigeria or within Nigeria,” he added.

In his welcome address, the Secretary to Enugu State Government, Prof. Chidiebere Onyia, said the state had pursued an extensive urban development agenda, including the New Enugu Smart City, environmental sustainability and urban renewal.

He added that the State’s fiscal architecture had undergone significant reform through revenue automation, reforms at the Enugu State Internal Revenue Service, improved financial management, the Treasury Single Account, enterprise resource planning and broader institutional restructuring.

According to him, the administration had also sustained investments in youth empowerment, women development, technology, skills acquisition, social protection, tourism, environmental sustainability and community development.

He said the ultimate goal is to improve the lives of the people.

“Behind every project is a community; behind every policy is a citizen; and behind every statistic is a human being whose life government seeks to improve,” he concluded.

He also stressed the importance of institutional reforms in sustaining government programmes, stating: “Sustainable development requires not only projects that citizens can see, but institutions and systems that can sustain those projects.”

The Deputy National Chairman (South) of the All Progressives Congress, Dr. Ben Nwoye, commended the administration for its development record and the scale of projects executed across the State.

The Speaker of the Enugu State House of Assembly, Hon. Uchenna Ugwu, commended the Governor for his developmental strides, pledging the continued support of the legislative arm of the state government.

The Chairman of the Enugu State Council of Traditional Rulers, Igwe Samuel Asadu, equally spoke glowingly about the administration’s performance, saying a performing government should be supported to continue till 2031.

“We have never had it so good. It is not about party. But let us give the job to those who understand the job. The governor wants to move the Enugu State economy to a $30bn economy and that is exactly what he is doing,” he stated.

Chief of Staff to the Governor, Victor Udeh, described the compendium as an evidence-based publication and a commitment to accountability.

The event brought together political leaders, traditional and religious leaders, captains of industry, professionals, public servants and other stakeholders, who commended the administration for the scale and spread of its interventions across the State.

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Italian priest quits priesthood after 12 years, marries Kenyan woman

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Twelve years after his ministry in Kenya, East African Italian-born Catholic priest Sandro Ferretto has married Sharon Jepng’ok, a Tugen woman from Baringo County.

According to Kenya Times, the couple exchanged vows in a traditional ceremony on 6 September at Seretion Village in Kasiela, a community where Mr Ferretto previously served as parish priest.

The event brought together relatives, local leaders, elders and friends of the bride, who witnessed the Koito ceremony, a significant Kalenjin custom centred on dowry negotiations and family blessings.

Ferretto’s ministry

Mr Ferretto, 55, began his priesthood in Italy before taking his ministry to Kenya, where he spent more than a decade working with local communities.

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The Diocese of Padua ordained him as a priest, and he arrived in Kenya in 2008 to begin missionary service. He worked around Kasiela and Mochongoi under the Diocese of Nyahururu and became involved in pastoral outreach, youth programmes and community-based development efforts in Baringo.

He eventually returned to Italy in December 2020 with another missionary, Fr Mariano Dal Ponte.

In 2023, the priest assumed responsibility for a pastoral unit in Saletto, Borgo Veneto, in the Padua diocese. His duties covered eight churches in the area.

His tenure, however, lasted only several months. In December 2023, he celebrated a final Mass before stepping aside from the position to take time for reflection.

The decision reportedly caught some of his colleagues off guard because he gave them little notice.

The Diocese of Padua later acknowledged his withdrawal from pastoral duties, stressing that he continued to serve as a priest and had no connection to any controversy. The diocese described the decision as a requested period away from pastoral ministry.

During his break, Mr Ferretto was reportedly involved in volunteer work with a migrant support group in Padua.

Reunion and law
Mr Ferretto later returned to Kenya and reunited with Ms Jepng’ok, whom he met during his missionary work in Baringo.

Residents of the area widely knew him as “Father Sandro” after he spent more than a decade working with families, youth organisations and church congregations. Baringo is also Ms Jepng’ok’s home region.

Catholic canon law requires Latin Rite priests to observe celibacy and bars them from marrying while they remain in active ministry. The Church considers the commitment a lifelong obligation of the priesthood.

For a priest to marry, he must first be formally removed from the clerical state through a process approved by the Vatican. Known as laicisation, the process ends his status as a priest and normally includes a dispensation from the obligation of celibacy.

Only after receiving the necessary approval can a former priest marry. Without it, the marriage would contravene Catholic canon law and would not be recognised by the Church.

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24 die after consuming herbal drinks in Ondo

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The Ondo State Government on Wednesday confirmed the deaths of some people in Odigbo Local Government Area of the state following the consumption of a herbal liquid substance.

No fewer than 24 residents of two communities in the council area, Araromi Obu and Odigbo town, reportedly lost their lives after consuming the substance.

The incident, which was said to have occurred on Saturday, has thrown the affected communities into mourning.

A source in the area said the deceased consumed the substance on Saturday at different locations but later became unconscious, leading to their deaths, while some others who also consumed the substance were rushed to the hospital.

The source said, “They (the deceased) drank the herbal substance and started dying, eight people died in Araromi Obu while 16 lost their lives in Odigbo town but we are yet to confirm if it is what they drank that killed them but we are sure that the people died after drinking the herbal drinks.

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“Some of the people died in their sleep while some died when they got home and many are still in the hospital as I am talking to you.”

Confirming the incident in a telephone interview, the Chairman of Odigbo Local Government, Mr Taiwo Adegoroye, said the deceased consumed the substance before the incident, adding that they were waiting for a medical team to carry out autopsies to determine the actual cause of the deaths.

Adegoroye said, “We can confirm the death of 24 people, eight in Araromi Obu and 16 in Odigbo town and many are still on admission at hospitals. But we are yet to ascertain the cause of the death and we are still waiting for the team from the state Ministry of Health to carry out the test on the deceased. That is why we can’t specifically say the real cause.”

The chairman also said he had placed a ban on the sale and consumption of locally brewed alcoholic drinks in the area as a precautionary measure.

According to him, a preliminary verbal autopsy conducted by the local government health team indicated a possible link between the reported deaths and the consumption of the substances.

In the same vein, the state Commissioner for Health, Dr Banji Ajaka, also confirmed the incident in a telephone interview, saying investigations were underway to establish the actual cause of the deaths.

Ajaka did not immediately disclose the specific substance suspected to have caused the deaths, but said medical and health officials would conduct further assessments in the affected communities.

“The government is taking the matter seriously and we will provide more details after the ongoing investigation has established the circumstances surrounding the incident.”

Meanwhile, some youths in the town staged a mini protest and went to the palace of the Odigbo traditional ruler to demand explanations and urgent measures to prevent further loss of life.

Addressing the youths, the monarch of the town, Oba Rufus Akinrinmade, appealed for calm and assured them that efforts would be made to ascertain the circumstances surrounding the deaths and find a lasting solution to the situation.

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