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Middle-East crises: Experts predict tougher times for poor Nigerians

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Isreal President, Benjamin Netanyahu, U.S President Donald Trump and late Iran President Ali Hosseini Khamenei
Isreal President, Benjamin Netanyahu, U.S President Donald Trump and late Iran President Ali Hosseini Khamenei
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•  Higher prices to directly squeeze low income Nigerians – Egbomeade

Amidst escalation in the Middle-East crises, financial and economy experts have indicated that the spill-over effect will worsen economic hardship in Nigeria especially amongst the vulnerable households.

Though they noted some positive impacts of the crises on the country’s macroeconomic outlook and fiscal position, the overall outcome, they believe, would be largely negative.

The positive outlook according to them includes, higher crude export receipts, improved foreign exchange inflows, strengthening of external reserves, and increased revenue allocations to all tiers of government.

However, they also noted that even these positives are still challenged and more of probability saying revenue gains are critically dependent on production levels. Nigeria’s current crude output has fluctuated around 1.4–1.6 million barrels per day, below installed capacity and vulnerable to oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and underinvestment in upstream infrastructure.

Furthermore they explained that if the conflict escalates and dampens global growth, oil demand could weaken, leading to price corrections, concluding that the fiscal upside is inherently fragile.

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They added that geopolitical instability also triggers global risk aversion noting that during periods of uncertainty, capital tends to migrate toward safe-haven assets such as U.S. Treasury securities and gold.

Consequently, emerging and less developed markets such as Nigeria frequently experience portfolio outflows in such episodes.

On the negative impact of the Middle-East crises on poor Nigerians, the analysts said the immediate domestic risk lies in inflation transmission falling out from increases in petrol and other prices, which would erode purchasing power of the low income households.

Experts’ insight

Speaking to Saturday Vanguard on the situation, Dr. Muda Yusuf, Chief Executive Officer Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), said: “The escalating conflict involving Iran, the United States, and Israel has injected a new wave of geopolitical risk into the global economy. Energy markets are the first transmission channel.

“For Nigeria, an oil-dependent economy where crude accounts for over 85 percent of export earnings and about half of government revenue, the implications are significant. The effects will be both positive and adverse, depending on the duration of the conflict and the quality of domestic policy responses.”

Continuing, he stated: “For Nigeria, every increase in crude oil price translates into additional export earnings and fiscal revenues.

‘‘The immediate benefits include: Higher crude export receipts, improved foreign exchange inflows, strengthening of external reserves, and increased FAAC allocations to all tiers of government

“However, revenue gains are critically dependent on production levels. Nigeria’s current crude output has fluctuated around 1.4–1.6 million barrels per day, below installed capacity and vulnerable to oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and underinvestment in upstream infrastructure. Without a sustained improvement in production efficiency and security, Nigeria may not fully optimise any price windfall.

There is also a medium-term risk. If the conflict escalates and dampens global growth, oil demand could weaken, leading to price corrections. The fiscal upside is therefore inherently fragile.

Yusuf also noted that there are exchange rate implications and capital flow risks.

Higher oil prices typically strengthen Nigeria’s current account balance and improve foreign exchange liquidity. This could reduce short-term pressure on the naira and reinforce investor confidence.

In recent years, exchange rate stability has been closely tied to oil receipts and capital inflows. Improved export earnings could: Boost gross external reserves, enhance FX market liquidity, reduce speculative pressure on the currency.

“However, geopolitical instability also triggers global risk aversion. During periods of uncertainty, capital tends to migrate toward safe-haven assets such as U.S. Treasury securities and gold. Emerging markets frequently experience portfolio outflows in such episodes.

Given Nigeria’s relatively shallow capital market and sensitivity to foreign portfolio investment, volatility in global financial conditions could offset part of the FX gains from higher oil prices. The net exchange rate impact will therefore depend on the balance between stronger oil inflows and potential capital reversals.”

Yusuf listed inflation transmission and welfare pressures as part of the impact of the conflict on Nigeria.

He stated: ‘‘The most immediate domestic risk lies in inflation transmission. Nigeria operates a deregulated downstream petroleum regime. Higher international crude prices feed directly into higher petrol, diesel and aviation fuel costs.

The likely channels include: rising pump prices, increased transportation/logistics costs, higher food distribution expenses, escalating manufacturing and logistics costs.

Energy costs have a strong multiplier effect in Nigeria’s inflation dynamics.”

It will reduce purchasing power of the poor – CIS President

Commenting, Oluropo Dada President, Chartered Institute of Stockbrokers, CIS said: “The biggest impact will come through higher fuel, transport, and food prices. If the conflict keeps crude oil around $95–$105 per barrel (from about $70–$75 earlier in the year), petrol prices in Nigeria could rise from around N800 per litre to N1,200–N1,500 per litre due to higher landing cost. Transportation fares could increase by 20–40%, which will immediately affect food prices. ‘‘Since low-income households spend about 60–70% of their income on food and transport, even a 10–15% rise in prices significantly reduces their purchasing power. Food inflation could reverse its downwards trend and rise by another 5–8 percentage points, worsening hardship for the poor.

‘‘Although higher oil prices may increase revenue, the overall impact could still be negative. Nigeria’s budget benchmark is about $64–$65 per barrel, so prices near $100 per barrel could add roughly $25–$35 extra per barrel, translating to billions of naira in additional monthly revenue.

‘‘However, higher global energy prices will also increase import costs, and Nigeria still imports a large share of refined fuel.

‘‘Inflation could rise by 3–6%, forcing interest rates to stay high, which slows business activity and borrowing.

‘‘Foreign investors may also move funds to safer markets during war, leading to pressure on the naira and weaker capital inflows.

‘‘In the long run, uncertainty in global markets can reduce investment, slow GDP growth below the current 4% range, and delay economic recovery.”

Higher prices to directly squeeze low income Nigerians – Egbomeade

Commenting as well, Clifford Egbomeade, Economy and Communications Analyst, said: “Before the Iran–Israel conflict escalated, Brent crude traded around $65–$70 per barrel. As tensions intensified, prices spiked above $100 per barrel, at times reaching an intra day high near $116 per barrel, before moderate pullbacks.

‘‘That jump of nearly 50 percent in global crude oil price matters for millions of Nigerians because the domestic fuel market still responds closely to international benchmarks.

“For low income households, the immediate transmission mechanism is fuel price inflation. When crude prices rally, the cost of refined products tends to follow.

‘‘Although Nigeria now has significant local refining capacity, refineries still source a meaningful share of crude at prices linked to global markets. This raises the landing cost of petrol and diesel, and businesses pass those costs to consumers.

‘‘Already in recent days, the gantry price of petrol increased from about N995 per litre to N1,175 or more, and industry groups warn it could approach N2,000 per litre if the crisis persists.

‘‘Diesel has seen similar upward pressure, moving toward N3,000 per litre in some projections.

‘‘Higher fuel prices directly squeeze low income Nigerians. Transport costs are among the first to rise because commercial drivers and riders must cover more expensive petrol or diesel.

‘‘When fares increase, workers who depend on daily commuting must spend a larger share of their limited income on transport. For a market trader or wage earner, that often means cutting back on household essentials.

‘‘Fuel price inflation also ripples into the food chain. Nigerian agriculture relies heavily on road transport and diesel powered equipment to move produce from farms to urban markets.

‘‘A litre of petrol rising from roughly N850 before the crisis to over N1,000 now can push up the prices of basic foodstuffs. Traders and farmers pass increased logistics costs onto consumers, contributing to higher market prices for staples. For example, prices of pepper and tomatoes in some urban markets have recently doubled or tripled.

“Ultimately, although higher global oil prices can increase national export revenues, the lived experience for low income Nigerians is more acute inflation in transport, food, and everyday goods, worsening financial strain for households that already spend most of their income on basic needs.”

It will constrict consumers’ disposable income, exacerbate suffering – Adonri

Commenting also, David Adonri, Analyst and Executive Vice Chairman at High Cap Securities Limited, said: “The low income class in Nigeria has been suffering economic hardship before and after the recent market reforms. Inflation has been the main culprit.

‘‘The global trade disruption arising from the Iran War has started pushing inflation to dangerous levels. Price of petrol has surged and it could reverse the current trend of moderation in inflation.

‘‘This can constrict consumers’ disposable income and exacerbate suffering.

“While FGN benefits from the rising Crude Oil price, the attendant inflation that will arise can be injurious to the economy.”

Investors are pulling out already – Tumba

In his own reaction over the war, Simon Tumba, a Lagos based Business Executive over the, said: “ In almost everything; transportation, food, medications and provisions, everything will go up. Sadly there’s no end in sight concerning this war. It’s tough already.

“On the setbacks to the economy, investors are pulling out already. Although the government will earn more revenue from oil receipts, we are not confident they’d manage the funds well considering the elections coming next year and the experiences of the last few years where revenue targets were not met adding to more loans, yet capital budget execution has been almost zero.

Therefore foreign direct investment will suffer, while living expenses will escalate. Inflation may hit the 20s again.” (Vanguard)

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66th Independence: Gov Mbah urges thanksgiving, courage, and optimism

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…Says Tinubu’s reforms  have created opportunities for states

…Bishop Onaga commends Mbah for good governance, improved security

As Nigerians mark the nation’s 66th Independence anniversary, Governor of Enugu State, Dr. Peter Mbah, has urged citizens to embrace courage, optimism and thanksgiving, stressing that nation-building is not always accompanied by fanfare.

Mbah spoke on Thursday at a thanksgiving Mass held at the Enugu Government House Chapel to mark Nigeria’s 66th Independence Day.
He noted that although this year’s commemoration was largely low-key and devoid of fanfare across the country, the quietness of the celebration should not diminish the significance of the occasion.

“Nation-building is not always accompanied by fireworks,” the governor said.

He observed that some of the most consequential work in the country was being done quietly in classrooms, hospitals, farms, construction sites, factories, businesses, laboratories and security formations, as well as in countless places where Nigerians wake up every morning and continue to contribute to the country’s progress.

“There are moments in a nation’s journey when the difficulties are so immediate that it becomes difficult to see the possibilities beyond them. But dawn does not announce itself with noise. It begins quietly.

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“So, even as we acknowledge the difficulties that confront us, we must also acknowledge that Nigeria’s journey has not been an underwhelming one,” he stated.

Continuing, Mbah recalled that Nigeria had survived crises that tore other nations apart, while noting that the reforms introduced by President Bola Tinubu were beginning to create new opportunities and conditions for economic growth.

“Let us acknowledge honestly the challenges before us. But let us also refuse the temptation to define Nigeria only by her difficulties. A nation is not measured only by the problems it faces, but also by the courage with which it confronts them.

“That is the spirit with which we must approach Nigeria at 66 – not with blind optimism, and certainly not with despair, but with faith, courage, honesty and work.

“It is heartwarming that the President’s policies and reforms have created remarkable opportunities for states that are prepared to take advantage of them.

“Today, there are also indications that some of the difficult reforms undertaken at the federal level are beginning to create conditions for greater economic stability and production,” he said.

Mbah described Enugu State as living proof of the promise of independence, resilience and self-belief, saying the state had moved from a narrative of decline to one of renewal.

“There was a time when the dominant conversation about Enugu was about what had been lost – about a city and a state whose best days were behind them.

“Today, a different story is being written. A renaissance is taking place – across our schools and hospitals, our roads and even in the skies, in once moribund factories, our agricultural communities, and our tourism space.

“This is why the story of Enugu is a story about what becomes possible when a people refuse to surrender to the limitations of yesterday. And that, for me, is the optimism that Independence Day should stir in every Nigerian,” he added.

The governor thanked the people of Enugu State for their support, reassuring them of his administration’s determination to remain focused on its development agenda.

“We will not be distracted from the work. We will remain faithful to the policies and projects that have changed the trajectory of our state and earned Enugu a more respectable reckoning, both within Nigeria and beyond.

“We will remain committed to the welfare and security of our people. We will continue to invest in education because the greatest infrastructure we can build is the human being.

“We will continue to strengthen our economy because prosperity must ultimately be measured by the quality of life of our people.

“And we will continue to build a state in which our children do not have to leave home to find a future,” he concluded.

Bishop Onaga commends Mbah for good governance, improved security
In his homily, the Catholic Bishop of Enugu Diocese, Most Rev. Callistus Onaga, expressed regret that Nigeria, despite its enormous potential, had yet to fully realise the promise of independence, particularly in the face of persistent security and economic challenges.

He, however, emphasised that Nigerians had many reasons to give thanks to God.

Onaga commended Mbah for what he described as significant progress in the state, particularly in the area of security, stressing that sustainable investment and development could not take place in an atmosphere of insecurity.

“My dear brothers and sisters, if you were here between 2021 and 2023, the security situation was terrible.

“Those who may not know why I say this, let me tell you. Within that period, I buried four priests, killed. Some were kidnapped. But thanks to God; when the present government of the state came in, something was done immediately.

“I feel it. I think Enugu is the most beautiful state to have in Nigeria.

“Of course, it is not to say that it is all over. No. We need to do more,” he said.

The bishop urged leaders to deploy the mandates entrusted to them for the public good, stressing that political and public authority should be exercised as an opportunity to serve and care for the vulnerable.

“It is the power to love, to serve, and to care for the weak and the poor – those on the fringes of existence,” he said.

Onaga further called for a stronger moral foundation for the country, saying Nigeria’s progress should be anchored not only on material development but also on justice, holiness and truth.

“Our national map will not rest on purely material foundations. It will rest on a new moral condition built on justice, holiness, and truth,” he concluded.

The Mass was attended by heads of other arms of government, senior government officials and other leaders.

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Stop bringing cows, rams to judges, retiring S’Court Justice tells politicians

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• Reveals how judiciary ‘frustrated’ military before June 12, 1993 annulment

A retiring Justice of the Supreme Court, Ibrahim Saulawa, yesterday cautioned politicians against attempting to sway judicial officers with what he described as “Greek gifts.”

Retiring from the bench on reaching the mandatory age of 70, the jurist insisted that action must be taken against the practice of politicians gifting cows and rams to judges, adding that he had previously raised the matter with the Chief Justice of Nigeria.

“Why should a politician send a ram, cow or other items to a Supreme Court Justice? It is unheard of in other countries.

“I am calling on the CJN to do something about this. I once raised the issue. It is demeaning and equally frustrating,” added Justice Saulawa, who bowed out of the bench after a 44-year journey in the legal profession.

He spoke at a valedictory court session the apex court held in his honour.

While urging judges across the federation to embrace a culture of integrity, honesty and morality, the retiring Justice recalled a case in which an influential person he later convicted had tried, before judgment was delivered, to influence him through proxies after he declined a gift of a car.

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“Prior to the case, the Alhaji had donated to me a brand new Peugeot motor vehicle, which I flatly rejected.

“He went to the extent of seeking the intervention of some prominent personalities, including the Emir, Alhaji Muhammadu Kabir Usman, the District Head, Alhaji Balan Goggo, et al., with a view to influencing me to accept the ‘Greek gift,’ but to no avail,” Justice Saulawa added.

Only six Senior Advocates of Nigeria (SANs) and 13 other lawyers attended the jurist’s valedictory session on Tuesday, in contrast to similar ceremonies in the past that attracted serving and former governors and other eminent personalities.

A representative of the Body of Senior Advocates of Nigeria (BoSAN), Mr. Damien Dodo, SAN, who declared that he was embarrassed by the poor attendance of lawyers, blamed it on miscommunication, saying it was not a reflection of the personality of Justice Saulawa, who, he said, served the country “with granite integrity.”

The outgoing jurist disclosed that, while in service, he had, in a bid to safeguard his principles, turned down several invitations to attend social gatherings.

“But some of my learned friends are always there, even if they didn’t need to be there,” he noted.

Recalling the crisis that led to the annulment of the June 12, 1993 presidential election, Justice Saulawa said that, as the Chief Registrar of the Court of Appeal at the time, he took steps to stem the tide of conflicting court orders which, he said, were orchestrated by the military.

He noted that while the FCT High Court issued two interim orders that restrained the Professor Humphrey Nwosu-led National Electoral Commission (NEC) from conducting the presidential poll and from announcing the results, some state high courts issued conflicting orders directing that the results be announced.

Insisting that the legal confusion was masterminded by the military, Justice Saulawa said he acted on the directive of the then President of the Court of Appeal (PCA), Justice M. Akanbi, by swiftly moving to Kaduna to take control of the appellate court’s registry.

“Appeals were filed at the Court of Appeal, Kaduna Division, by the NEC. As the Chief Registrar of the Court of Appeal, and the only spokesperson thereof, I flew from Lagos to Kaduna and took effective control of the Registry and supervised the registering of the appeals and the issuing of the appropriate court processes to the respective parties to the appeals.

“I equally issued a press release regarding the circumstances surrounding the two appeals and motions relating to..”

“Later in the evening, I flew back to Lagos and briefed the PCA, Hon. Justice MMA Akanbi, a man of unquestionable integrity and unwavering courage. Upon my advice, the Hon. PCA called for an emergency meeting of the Hon. Presiding Justices over the crisis,” he added.

He said it was after every effort the military made to infiltrate the judiciary “was frustrated by myself and Justice Akanbi” that the then Head of State, General Ibrahim Babangida, annulled the outcome of the presidential contest on the excuse that he was saving “the judiciary from self-destruction.”

While faulting the military for engaging in “forum shopping,” which he said led to all the conflicting court orders, Justice Saulawa insisted the judiciary at that time deserved “a gold medal.”

“We actually did all we could do to frustrate the military,” he added.

Meanwhile, the CJN, Justice Kudirat Kekere-Ekun, in her address at the valedictory court session, extolled Justice Saulawa’s virtues, describing him as “a man whose life has been defined by service.”

The CJN recalled the time the retiring Justice was serving as the Presiding Justice of the Port Harcourt Division of the Court of Appeal, saying: “There was, during that period, a particular moment which has remained with me, because of what it revealed about the values we both held dear.

“A situation arose which called for a clear and principled response to an attempt, however discreetly made, to place a matter of personal benefit in the path of judicial duty.

“Without hesitation, we each took the position that the integrity of the judicial office admits of no compromise and that even the appearance of impropriety must be guarded against.

“What followed was a quiet but unmistakable affirmation of a principle that needed no elaborate expression: that the honour of the judicial office is preserved not merely in our judgments from the Bench, but also in the choices we make when no judgment is being written.

“I believe that moment deepened my appreciation of my Lord’s character and, in its own quiet way, helped to define the mutual respect and understanding that have characterised our relationship since,” the CJN added.

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Flood kills 9 in Bauchi mining pit

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Nine miners have died after floodwater submerged a mining pit in Nahuta Village, Gwana District, Alkaleri Local Government Area of Bauchi State.The state Police Public Relations Officer, SP Nafiu Habib, confirmed the incident on Wednesday.

He said the incident occurred on Sunday, September 27, when the miners were working at a mining pit that was flooded following heavy rainfall.

According to him, Kasim Abdulsalam, the purchase manager of Zurfi Mining Company in Nahuta, reported the incident to the police.

Habib said the miners were contract workers operating at Pit Three when water flooded the pit after heavy rainfall around 3pm on September 25.

He said some of the miners were rescued, while one victim was electrocuted and rushed to General Hospital, Kashere, in Akko Local Government Area of Gombe State, where he was confirmed dead.

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“The DPO Alkaleri led a team of detectives to the scene, where three water pump generators were seen evacuating water from the pit to enable the rescue of the remaining victims,” he said.

Habib said the remaining eight miners were eventually removed from the pit at about 6:20am on September 28 and taken to the same hospital.

He said they were all confirmed dead by a medical doctor.

The deceased were identified as Hamidu Ali, 40, Saidu Abubakar, 29, and Olije Abdulrazak, 25, all from Nasarawa and Kogi states.

Others were Musa Abdullahi, 29, Abdulrahman Mu’azu, 23, and Jafar Abbas, 24, from Bauchi State; Jose Ukese, 28, from Nasarawa State; and Haruna Alkali, 30, from Kebbi State.

Habib said the corpses were released to their relatives after medical examination for burial according to their respective religious rites.

He added that investigation into the incident was ongoing.

Rivers relocates school as flooding submerges homes

The Rivers State Government has relocated students and staff of Community Secondary School, Rumuapara, to State Primary School, Nkpolu, in Rumuigbo, Obio/Akpor Local Government Area, following severe flooding in the area.

The relocation took effect on Wednesday, September 30, 2026, to protect students and staff from the effects of flooding that has submerged the school premises and several nearby houses.

The Commissioner for Education, Dr Peters Nwagor, approved the relocation in a circular obtained by Daily Trust in Port Harcourt.

He said the decision was necessary to safeguard the lives and well-being of students and staff while the government worked towards finding a lasting solution to the problem.

Flooding has affected several communities in Rivers State, particularly in Port Harcourt, displacing residents and destroying property.

NEMA places 15 states on red alert

Meanwhile, the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) has placed 15 states on flood red alert as it steps up preparations for possible flooding across the country.

The affected states are Imo, Cross River, Ebonyi, Benue, Anambra, Akwa Ibom, Lagos, Rivers, Edo, Kogi, Taraba, Delta, Bayelsa, Enugu and Abia.

The Head of Operations, NEMA Kaduna Operations Office, Halima Dauda Sulaiman, disclosed this on Wednesday in Kaduna at the opening of a refresher course on Urban Search and Rescue (USAR) for flooding.

Sulaiman, who spoke on behalf of the Director-General of NEMA, said flooding remained the most recurring disaster in the country.

She said the agency was strengthening the capacity of emergency responders to deal with the changing nature of flood disasters.

According to her, lessons from NEMA’s flood operations in 2022, 2024 and 2025 showed that urban flooding was becoming increasingly complex.

“The 2022, 2024 and 2025 flood operations have taught us a hard lesson that urban flooding is becoming more complex.

“We are not just rescuing people from open water; we are navigating through urban settlements with submerged houses, collapsed walls, live electrical hazards and panicked populations,” she said.

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