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Middle-East crises: Experts predict tougher times for poor Nigerians

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Isreal President, Benjamin Netanyahu, U.S President Donald Trump and late Iran President Ali Hosseini Khamenei
Isreal President, Benjamin Netanyahu, U.S President Donald Trump and late Iran President Ali Hosseini Khamenei
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•  Higher prices to directly squeeze low income Nigerians – Egbomeade

Amidst escalation in the Middle-East crises, financial and economy experts have indicated that the spill-over effect will worsen economic hardship in Nigeria especially amongst the vulnerable households.

Though they noted some positive impacts of the crises on the country’s macroeconomic outlook and fiscal position, the overall outcome, they believe, would be largely negative.

The positive outlook according to them includes, higher crude export receipts, improved foreign exchange inflows, strengthening of external reserves, and increased revenue allocations to all tiers of government.

However, they also noted that even these positives are still challenged and more of probability saying revenue gains are critically dependent on production levels. Nigeria’s current crude output has fluctuated around 1.4–1.6 million barrels per day, below installed capacity and vulnerable to oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and underinvestment in upstream infrastructure.

Furthermore they explained that if the conflict escalates and dampens global growth, oil demand could weaken, leading to price corrections, concluding that the fiscal upside is inherently fragile.

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They added that geopolitical instability also triggers global risk aversion noting that during periods of uncertainty, capital tends to migrate toward safe-haven assets such as U.S. Treasury securities and gold.

Consequently, emerging and less developed markets such as Nigeria frequently experience portfolio outflows in such episodes.

On the negative impact of the Middle-East crises on poor Nigerians, the analysts said the immediate domestic risk lies in inflation transmission falling out from increases in petrol and other prices, which would erode purchasing power of the low income households.

Experts’ insight

Speaking to Saturday Vanguard on the situation, Dr. Muda Yusuf, Chief Executive Officer Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), said: “The escalating conflict involving Iran, the United States, and Israel has injected a new wave of geopolitical risk into the global economy. Energy markets are the first transmission channel.

“For Nigeria, an oil-dependent economy where crude accounts for over 85 percent of export earnings and about half of government revenue, the implications are significant. The effects will be both positive and adverse, depending on the duration of the conflict and the quality of domestic policy responses.”

Continuing, he stated: “For Nigeria, every increase in crude oil price translates into additional export earnings and fiscal revenues.

‘‘The immediate benefits include: Higher crude export receipts, improved foreign exchange inflows, strengthening of external reserves, and increased FAAC allocations to all tiers of government

“However, revenue gains are critically dependent on production levels. Nigeria’s current crude output has fluctuated around 1.4–1.6 million barrels per day, below installed capacity and vulnerable to oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and underinvestment in upstream infrastructure. Without a sustained improvement in production efficiency and security, Nigeria may not fully optimise any price windfall.

There is also a medium-term risk. If the conflict escalates and dampens global growth, oil demand could weaken, leading to price corrections. The fiscal upside is therefore inherently fragile.

Yusuf also noted that there are exchange rate implications and capital flow risks.

Higher oil prices typically strengthen Nigeria’s current account balance and improve foreign exchange liquidity. This could reduce short-term pressure on the naira and reinforce investor confidence.

In recent years, exchange rate stability has been closely tied to oil receipts and capital inflows. Improved export earnings could: Boost gross external reserves, enhance FX market liquidity, reduce speculative pressure on the currency.

“However, geopolitical instability also triggers global risk aversion. During periods of uncertainty, capital tends to migrate toward safe-haven assets such as U.S. Treasury securities and gold. Emerging markets frequently experience portfolio outflows in such episodes.

Given Nigeria’s relatively shallow capital market and sensitivity to foreign portfolio investment, volatility in global financial conditions could offset part of the FX gains from higher oil prices. The net exchange rate impact will therefore depend on the balance between stronger oil inflows and potential capital reversals.”

Yusuf listed inflation transmission and welfare pressures as part of the impact of the conflict on Nigeria.

He stated: ‘‘The most immediate domestic risk lies in inflation transmission. Nigeria operates a deregulated downstream petroleum regime. Higher international crude prices feed directly into higher petrol, diesel and aviation fuel costs.

The likely channels include: rising pump prices, increased transportation/logistics costs, higher food distribution expenses, escalating manufacturing and logistics costs.

Energy costs have a strong multiplier effect in Nigeria’s inflation dynamics.”

It will reduce purchasing power of the poor – CIS President

Commenting, Oluropo Dada President, Chartered Institute of Stockbrokers, CIS said: “The biggest impact will come through higher fuel, transport, and food prices. If the conflict keeps crude oil around $95–$105 per barrel (from about $70–$75 earlier in the year), petrol prices in Nigeria could rise from around N800 per litre to N1,200–N1,500 per litre due to higher landing cost. Transportation fares could increase by 20–40%, which will immediately affect food prices. ‘‘Since low-income households spend about 60–70% of their income on food and transport, even a 10–15% rise in prices significantly reduces their purchasing power. Food inflation could reverse its downwards trend and rise by another 5–8 percentage points, worsening hardship for the poor.

‘‘Although higher oil prices may increase revenue, the overall impact could still be negative. Nigeria’s budget benchmark is about $64–$65 per barrel, so prices near $100 per barrel could add roughly $25–$35 extra per barrel, translating to billions of naira in additional monthly revenue.

‘‘However, higher global energy prices will also increase import costs, and Nigeria still imports a large share of refined fuel.

‘‘Inflation could rise by 3–6%, forcing interest rates to stay high, which slows business activity and borrowing.

‘‘Foreign investors may also move funds to safer markets during war, leading to pressure on the naira and weaker capital inflows.

‘‘In the long run, uncertainty in global markets can reduce investment, slow GDP growth below the current 4% range, and delay economic recovery.”

Higher prices to directly squeeze low income Nigerians – Egbomeade

Commenting as well, Clifford Egbomeade, Economy and Communications Analyst, said: “Before the Iran–Israel conflict escalated, Brent crude traded around $65–$70 per barrel. As tensions intensified, prices spiked above $100 per barrel, at times reaching an intra day high near $116 per barrel, before moderate pullbacks.

‘‘That jump of nearly 50 percent in global crude oil price matters for millions of Nigerians because the domestic fuel market still responds closely to international benchmarks.

“For low income households, the immediate transmission mechanism is fuel price inflation. When crude prices rally, the cost of refined products tends to follow.

‘‘Although Nigeria now has significant local refining capacity, refineries still source a meaningful share of crude at prices linked to global markets. This raises the landing cost of petrol and diesel, and businesses pass those costs to consumers.

‘‘Already in recent days, the gantry price of petrol increased from about N995 per litre to N1,175 or more, and industry groups warn it could approach N2,000 per litre if the crisis persists.

‘‘Diesel has seen similar upward pressure, moving toward N3,000 per litre in some projections.

‘‘Higher fuel prices directly squeeze low income Nigerians. Transport costs are among the first to rise because commercial drivers and riders must cover more expensive petrol or diesel.

‘‘When fares increase, workers who depend on daily commuting must spend a larger share of their limited income on transport. For a market trader or wage earner, that often means cutting back on household essentials.

‘‘Fuel price inflation also ripples into the food chain. Nigerian agriculture relies heavily on road transport and diesel powered equipment to move produce from farms to urban markets.

‘‘A litre of petrol rising from roughly N850 before the crisis to over N1,000 now can push up the prices of basic foodstuffs. Traders and farmers pass increased logistics costs onto consumers, contributing to higher market prices for staples. For example, prices of pepper and tomatoes in some urban markets have recently doubled or tripled.

“Ultimately, although higher global oil prices can increase national export revenues, the lived experience for low income Nigerians is more acute inflation in transport, food, and everyday goods, worsening financial strain for households that already spend most of their income on basic needs.”

It will constrict consumers’ disposable income, exacerbate suffering – Adonri

Commenting also, David Adonri, Analyst and Executive Vice Chairman at High Cap Securities Limited, said: “The low income class in Nigeria has been suffering economic hardship before and after the recent market reforms. Inflation has been the main culprit.

‘‘The global trade disruption arising from the Iran War has started pushing inflation to dangerous levels. Price of petrol has surged and it could reverse the current trend of moderation in inflation.

‘‘This can constrict consumers’ disposable income and exacerbate suffering.

“While FGN benefits from the rising Crude Oil price, the attendant inflation that will arise can be injurious to the economy.”

Investors are pulling out already – Tumba

In his own reaction over the war, Simon Tumba, a Lagos based Business Executive over the, said: “ In almost everything; transportation, food, medications and provisions, everything will go up. Sadly there’s no end in sight concerning this war. It’s tough already.

“On the setbacks to the economy, investors are pulling out already. Although the government will earn more revenue from oil receipts, we are not confident they’d manage the funds well considering the elections coming next year and the experiences of the last few years where revenue targets were not met adding to more loans, yet capital budget execution has been almost zero.

Therefore foreign direct investment will suffer, while living expenses will escalate. Inflation may hit the 20s again.” (Vanguard)

Health

Mbah tours 300-Bed Enugu Int’l Hospital, says ‘We’re ready to welcome the world’ (PHOTOS)

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…Set to launch hospital, targets large share of medical tourism

_…Facility attracts outpouring of interest from diaspora medics

Ahead of the imminent inauguration of the Enugu International Hospital, Governor Peter Mbah of Enugu State has undertaken a tour of the facility, declaring that Enugu State was ready to welcome the world.

Mbah said the hospital was now fully installed with state-of-the-art medical equipment and would help to reverse medical tourism out of the country, ensuring that the state secures a large chunk of the multibillion-dollar market.

Fielding questions from newsmen on Thursday evening after a pre-launch walkthrough of the facility situated at Rangers Avenue, Independence Layout, Enugu, Mbah said the hospital was a product of a deliberate health agenda.

“If you recall our manifesto during our campaign for office, we made it clear that we were committed to making Enugu a medical tourism hub on the continent.

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“We knew the size of that market and wanted to have a good share of that market. But we knew also that it was never going to be wished into existence.

“We knew that we needed to do things differently and build a world-class facility and, most importantly, attract top-notch professionals to provide services. We cannot wait to welcome the world to Enugu,” he stated.

Mbah regretted that there was just about one functional location for PET Scan services in the country, but noted that the hospital would now bridge the wide gap in advanced medical services in the country.

“We have quite a lot of Ndi Enugu, and Nigerians who travel to India, Turkey, the United States, and the United Kingdom to seek medical attention. So, what we are asking for is just a fraction of what they would have spent overseas for the same quality services,” he said.

“We felt that if we want to compete globally, then we must also have the ability to provide advanced oncology services. Therefore, we are not only able to give you an advanced diagnosis, but we’re also able to treat. So, both diagnostically and therapeutically, the place to come to is right here in Enugu.

“We have also received an outpouring of interest from our healthcare professionals in the diaspora. Some of them were doing well here at some point and now went overseas to practice. They are now happy to come back home and give back to the society that nurtured them. We are excited about that,” he stated.

He added that the Enugu International Hospital would equally engage in telemedicine as one of its areas of strength.

“Of course, you may be in love with the building and the equipment, but you should also engage professionals from across the globe. You see this in our commitment to telemedicine, digital and electronic medical practices and equipment,” he explained.

He emphasised that the hospital was part of his administration’s agenda for the health sector as a major part of his government’s vision to grow the state’s economy from $4.4bn to $30bn, and ensure high quality and increased life expectancy for the people.

“If you look at our intervention in the healthcare sector, from the primary healthcare to the secondary, tertiary, and now the quaternary, it is intentional.

“We are investing heavily in security and healthcare because we know that these are what investors would ask you: ‘Am I safe? If I fall sick, would I have a place where I can get quality medical attention?’” he said, adding that the hospital would also create jobs.

Speaking, the Chief Executive Officer, Prof. Sam Agwu, listed six specialty areas the hospital would provide services in once commissioned.

“We have earmarked six specialty centres here. In the Cancer Centre, we are going to provide medical, surgical, and nuclear medicine therapeutics and diagnostics.

“Then we are going to have the Heart and Vascular Centre of Excellence to deal with all heart problems and open-heart surgery, as you may know; cardiology consultation and diagnostics, electrophysiology and arrhythmia care, coronary care and acute cardiac pathways, interventional cardiology and cath-lab procedures, heart-failure and cardiac rehabilitation clinics, and of course vascular assessment and collaborative surgical care.

“We are going to have the Neurosciences Centre where we will deal with stroke, epilepsy, brain and spine tumours, neurosurgical procedures, among others.

“We are going to have a Renal and Transplant Centre of Excellence covering full kidney, chronic kidney disease clinics, early nephrology review, dialysis support and transplant assessment.

“Then, apart from all the centres of excellence, we are going to have wellness and regenerative medicine, while the usual departments that you know of – mother and child, general surgery, ENT, dental, ophthalmology, among others – will all be here.

Former Chairman of the Nigerian Medical Association, Enugu State, Dr. Sunday Nwafor, hailed the milestone, saying the hospital would promote brain gain by reversing the mass exodus of medical doctors from the country.

“Going forward, our doctors have a place of international standard where they can practice with state-of-the-art equipment and also earn well,” he said.

Mbah was accompanied by the Commissioner for Health, Prof. George Ugwu, among others.

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News

Vanguard Alumni to Unveil Book Chronicling Newspaper’s 40-Year Journey, Legacy

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Vanguard alumni are set to unveil a commemorative book chronicling the newspaper’s 40-year journey, evolution and distinctive newsroom culture.

Titled The Chronology of Vanguard Newspaper, the book captures the experiences, contributions and memories of journalists, editors and other professionals who helped shape the newspaper’s legacy.

The publication will be unveiled as part of activities marking Vanguard’s enduring legacy, with former staff expected to reconnect, share memories and celebrate the institution that shaped generations of media professionals.

The book project was announced during an appearance on Villa Square, a special segment of Cre8tive 9ja, a weekly tourism and culture magazine programme hosted by veteran tourism journalist Frank Meke and Bunmi Bade-Adeniji on Mainland 98.3FM.

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Speaking on the programme, members of the Vanguard Alumni Planning Committee, including Coordinator Sam Eferaro, Chairman Agnes Otsemobor and member Funmi Komolafe, reflected on their experiences at the newspaper and the enduring bond among former staff.

Eferaro said Vanguard’s distinctive work culture continued to unite former employees long after they had left the organisation.

“Vanguard has a rich work culture for its staff and there is no way you will work for Vanguard Newspaper and forget about the experience. Even after years of retirement, we still communicate together because we have a platform where we share information, interact and help each other,” he said.

According to him, the anniversary gathering would provide an opportunity for former staff to reconnect, celebrate their shared history and relive memorable moments from their years at the newspaper.

He said the book, which took several years to compile, received contributions from more than 20 editors and would serve as a valuable resource for journalists, journalism students and researchers interested in the history of the Nigerian media.

Eferaro urged young and aspiring journalists to read the publication and draw lessons from the experiences documented in it.

He also described the Vanguard newsroom as one of the most vibrant in the country, recalling the creativity, competitiveness and camaraderie that characterised the organisation in its formative years.

According to him, the newsroom culture encouraged journalists to pursue exclusive stories and develop compelling headlines that attracted readers and strengthened the newspaper’s position in the competitive media market.

Otsemobor described Vanguard Publisher, Sam Amuka-Pemu, popularly known as Uncle Sam, as a father figure whose leadership helped shape the careers of generations of journalists.

She said Amuka-Pemu created an environment in which staff developed a strong sense of belonging and responsibility towards the organisation.

“Uncle Sam Amuka-Pemu is a doyen of journalism who got all of us together. We started Vanguard from nothing, but we had this camaraderie and he made us feel like a family. He ensured everyone gave their all to the job to make sure that the paper became such a success as it is today,” she said.

Recalling her experience at Vanguard in the 1990s, Otsemobor said the publisher maintained an informal and convivial relationship with staff.

She recalled occasions when employees gathered around him during informal moments at the office, describing him as “a jolly good fellow.”

Meke, who chairs the venue committee and began his journalism career at Vanguard, said the newspaper played an important role in creating opportunities for journalists, particularly women, to develop their careers.

He said Vanguard’s influence on its former employees extended beyond the workplace.

“Vanguard is a spirit that can never get out of you as a staff. For us, the members of the Alumni body, we are just seeing ourselves for the first time in many years. I am fully committed to the Vanguard spirit and the event will be filled with fun,” Meke said.

He said the anniversary programme would feature discussions and reminiscences aimed at bringing to light some of the experiences behind Vanguard’s growth and success, particularly its distinctive newsroom culture.

Meke added that former staff would use the occasion to reconnect, share memories and celebrate the institution that played a significant role in shaping their professional lives.

Komolafe urged young journalists to remain committed to the ethics of the profession and use journalism as a tool for positive contributions to society.

She advised journalists to distinguish facts from opinions, verify information before publication and maintain balance in their reports.

“As a journalist, you have a conscience and you know what is right and wrong. Do your reporting and do not manipulate facts. Do not put out your ideas as fact because, as we used to say in journalism, when you doubt, you find out,” she said.

Komolafe further urged young journalists to remain focused, uphold professional standards and prepare themselves for the challenges of the profession.

She stressed that accuracy, fairness and integrity should remain central to journalism, noting that credibility was among the most valuable assets of a journalist.

Vanguard Media was founded by veteran journalist and publisher Sam Amuka-Pemu in 1984. The newspaper began as a weekly publication on June 3, 1984, before becoming a daily newspaper on July 3, 1984.

Over four decades, Vanguard has established itself as one of Nigeria’s major newspapers, with its motto, “Towards a better life for the people,” reflecting its longstanding focus on issues affecting ordinary Nigerians and the wider society.

The newspaper marked its 40th anniversary in 2024, prompting former editors, journalists and other members of staff to reflect on its evolution and enduring legacy.

The commemorative book project is part of efforts by the Vanguard Alumni to preserve the newspaper’s history, professional experiences and institutional memory for present and future generations.

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Education

Enugu govt approves N82,000 minimum wage for ESUT staff

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Enugu Governor, Dr Peter Mbah
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The Enugu State Government has approved an increase in the minimum wage of staff of the Enugu State University of Science and Technology (ESUT), Agbani, from N32,000 to N82,000 monthly, effective September 1, 2026.

The approval was contained in a letter signed by the Secretary to the Enugu State Government, Prof. Chidiebere Onyia, dated August 11, 2026, and addressed to the Accountant General of the state.

According to the letter, the approval followed a report submitted by the Joint Action Committee on Trade Union (JACTU) in ESUT over issues surrounding a one-month strike ultimatum issued by the university’s unions.

The government also approved an across-the-board increase of N50,000 for all other categories of staff of the university.

The SSG directed the Accountant General to fully implement the approval of Governor Peter Ndubuisi Mbah.

The directive referenced an earlier Government House letter dated August 7, 2026, on the matter.

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The letter, which was copied to the Vice-Chancellor of ESUT, Professor Aloysius-Michaels Okolie, for information and necessary action, is expected to take effect from September 1, 2026.

 

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