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Poverty level rises to 63% after Fuel Subsidy removal — Report
About 63 per cent of Nigerians fell below the poverty line after the removal of petrol subsidy, according to a new study that examined the welfare impact of the country’s recent economic reforms.
The research, presented at a stakeholders’ dialogue organised by Agora Policy in Abuja on Thursday, showed that the national poverty headcount rose sharply from a baseline of about 49.8 per cent to roughly 63 per cent following the subsidy removal before moderating slightly after the introduction of social protection measures.
The dialogue, themed “Sustaining and Deepening Economic Reforms in Nigeria,” brought together policymakers, economists, civil society leaders, and private sector representatives to examine the effects of the Federal Government’s reform agenda.
Among those present were the Deputy Governor for Economic Policy at the Central Bank of Nigeria, Dr Muhammad Abdullahi; the Special Adviser to the President on Finance and Economy, Ms Sanyade Okoli; the World Bank Senior Economist for Nigeria, Dr Samer Matta; the Country Director of CARE International, Dr Hussaini Abdu; and the Executive Director of Agora Policy, Waziri Adio, among others.
The study, presented by a Senior Lecturer at the Department of Economics, University of Abuja, Dr Mohammed Shuaibu, analysed the economic and social consequences of key reforms introduced by the Federal Government, including the removal of petrol subsidy and adjustments in electricity tariffs.
President Bola Tinubu had announced the end of petrol subsidy during his inaugural address on May 29, 2023. According to the study, the policy triggered broad price increases across the economy and significantly affected household welfare. “After the subsidy removal, poverty increased from a baseline of about 50 per cent to 63 per cent,” Shuaibu said.
He added that the introduction of social protection measures helped moderate the impact but did not fully reverse the deterioration in welfare conditions. “However, when social protection measures such as cash transfers were introduced, the poverty rate moderated to around 56.2 per cent,” he said.
The findings indicated that the immediate effects of the reform were unevenly distributed across different income groups. While high-income households remained largely insulated from the shocks, low-income households experienced the most severe erosion of purchasing power.
Data from the study showed that poverty among low-income households rose sharply from about 50 per cent before subsidy removal to roughly 63 per cent afterwards, while the national poverty gap widened significantly.
The poverty gap at the national level increased from 31.6 per cent to more than 45 per cent following the policy change, indicating a deeper level of deprivation among poor households.
Although social transfers slightly reduced the gap, the improvement remained limited due to delays in the rollout of intervention programmes and the relatively small scale of support provided.
The study also assessed how the reforms affected household consumption patterns. According to the findings, consumption levels declined across income groups following the removal of the subsidy and the adjustment of electricity tariffs.
“Across the board, household consumption declined following both the subsidy removal and electricity tariff adjustments. However, social transfers helped cushion the impact, especially for low-income households,” Shuaibu said.
The analysis showed that the effect on consumption was particularly pronounced among rural and low-income households, where rising energy and transport costs significantly reduced spending capacity.
Households in urban low-income groups also experienced declines in consumption, although the impact was somewhat moderated where social transfers were introduced.
Beyond household welfare, the research also examined the broader macroeconomic consequences of electricity tariff reforms.
The study found that electricity tariff adjustments resulted in a modest increase in consumer prices, initially raising prices by about 0.26 per cent, which later rose to roughly 0.52 per cent after the inclusion of social protection measures.
However, the electricity reform produced a small positive impact on economic output. According to the analysis, real Gross Domestic Product increased by about 0.42 per cent under the reform scenario before moderating to around 0.21 per cent when social protection programmes were factored into the model.
Firm-level investment also recorded slight gains following electricity tariff adjustments, although these improvements were partly offset by the cost of implementing social protection measures.
In contrast, the removal of the petrol subsidy had a contractionary effect on economic activity. The study showed that rising fuel prices and transport costs triggered inflationary pressures that weighed on business activity and investment.
Beyond the quantitative modelling, the research incorporated insights from focus group discussions conducted across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones. These discussions involved households and businesses and provided qualitative evidence on how Nigerians were coping with the economic changes.
Participants generally acknowledged the need for reforms given the country’s fiscal and macroeconomic challenges, but many criticised the speed at which the policies were introduced.
Households reported that the reforms rapidly eroded purchasing power and forced many families to adopt survival strategies. “Households adjusted to the shocks not through recovery but through sacrifice,” Shuaibu said.
According to the study, many households responded by cutting consumption, reducing transport use, rationing electricity, and borrowing money to meet basic needs. Several respondents also said they had received little or no assistance from government support programmes designed to mitigate the effects of the reforms.
Businesses reported similar difficulties, noting that rising fuel and electricity costs significantly increased operating expenses. Some firms said they had been forced to raise prices, reduce staff strength, or shut down operations entirely.
Others reported switching to alternative energy sources to cope with rising electricity tariffs and fuel costs. However, many business owners said that promised government support programmes had either not reached them or were insufficient to offset rising costs.
The study concluded that while the reforms were necessary to correct structural distortions in the Nigerian economy, their implementation created severe short-term shocks.
Providing a monetary policy perspective at the dialogue, the Deputy Governor of the CBN for Economic Policy, Muhammad Abdullahi, said the reforms became unavoidable because the Nigerian economy had been weakened by deep structural distortions.
“Nigeria faced severe macroeconomic imbalances, economic distortions, and collapsing revenues before major reforms began,” he said.
According to Abdullahi, the country had suffered a dramatic decline in oil revenue over the past decade.
He disclosed that earnings from crude oil fell from about $92bn in 2012 to less than $2bn in 2023, representing a decline of nearly 98 per cent in expected revenue during the period.
The situation, he said, contributed to severe fiscal pressure and made policy reforms unavoidable. The CBN official also noted that Nigeria inherited major distortions in the foreign exchange market, including multiple exchange rate windows that encouraged arbitrage.
According to him, the subsidy regime and exchange rate distortions together were estimated to have cost the Nigerian economy about six per cent of its Gross Domestic Product.
Abdullahi also disclosed that the CBN inherited a backlog of about $7bn in foreign exchange obligations owed to businesses and investors. He said the apex bank had already cleared about $4.5bn of the backlog in an effort to restore confidence in the financial system.
He added that restoring confidence in the foreign exchange market and improving oil sector performance were critical to stabilising the economy. Abdullahi also said Nigeria’s foreign reserve position was weaker than it appeared before the reforms.
Although official reserves were reported to be about $32bn, he explained that much of the funds consisted of borrowed resources and swaps, leaving the country with net reserves of only about $800m.
Despite the difficult transition, he said the reforms were beginning to produce early results. According to him, inflation has been declining steadily for about 19 months, while food inflation is currently at its lowest level in about 13 years.
He added that Nigeria was gradually moving towards single-digit inflation, something the country has not achieved in more than a decade. Abdullahi further stated that net foreign reserves had improved significantly, rising from about $800m to roughly $32bn, a development he said had strengthened international investor confidence.
He also pointed to rising non-oil exports, which reached about $6bn last year, with the government targeting $12bn in the near future.
Also speaking at the dialogue, the Director-General of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Dr Chinyere Almona, said the reforms had corrected several long-standing distortions but had also placed heavy pressure on businesses.
Almona noted that the removal of petrol subsidy alone could save the government about $7.5bn annually, which should be invested in infrastructure and human capital development. “For the private sector, what we want to see is that the savings from the fuel subsidy removal are actually being used to fund infrastructure,” she said.
She explained that rising fuel prices had significantly increased electricity generation costs for businesses. Almona added that while macroeconomic indicators such as reserves and the balance of payments had improved, many Nigerians had yet to experience the benefits.
“The economy is improving at the macro level, but that improvement has not trickled down to the common man and many small businesses,” she said.
She therefore urged the government to introduce complementary policies that would support businesses, including improved access to credit and targeted assistance for small and medium-sized enterprises.
The Chair of Agora Policy, Ojobo Ode Atuluku, said the dialogue was organised to promote evidence-based discussion on Nigeria’s reform agenda. He explained that the initiative was supported by the Nigeria Economic Stability and Transformation programme and the United Kingdom’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office.
World Bank economist Samer Matta urged the government to expand social protection programmes and strengthen the National Social Register to ensure that assistance reaches vulnerable populations quickly.
He added that sustained dialogue and stronger safety nets would be critical to maintaining public support for Nigeria’s economic reforms and ensuring that growth becomes more inclusive.
….Records 1,521km of roads, 7,000 classrooms, 260 Type-2 PHCs, sweeping reforms
Governor of Enugu State, Dr. Peter Mbah, has unveiled a compendium of more than 10,000 milestones recorded in the first term of his administration across critical sectors of the Enugu State economy.
The compendium, entitled “A Thousand and One Reasons Why Dr. Peter Ndubuisi Mbah Should be Re-elected as Governor of Enugu State,” was presented to the public at the International Conference Centre, Enugu, on Wednesday.
The compendium of milestones records, among others, over 1,521 kilometres of constructed and reconstructed roads, over 7,000 classrooms, 260 Type-2 Primary Healthcare Centres, Enugu Air, the New Enugu Smart City, and the revamp of moribund assets.
Represented by the Deputy Governor, Barr. Ifeanyi Ossai, Mbah said the compendium aligns with the Citizens Charter, also known as Executive Order 001, which he executed immediately he was sworn into office on 29th May 2023 to emphasise his administration’s commitment to accountability, traceability and transparency.
He, however, said the compendium highlighted the administration’s philosophy of disruptive innovation and its focus on large-scale infrastructure, noting that it did not contain all that had been done up to the day of unveiling.
“Our assignment today is not just to unveil the Citizens Charter via the compendium. It is a lot more than that. It is a conversation on the sacrosanct duty and responsibility you gave to us to midwife and preside over your resources.
“But above all, it is important to note that the document we are about to unveil does not entirely capture everything this government has done because, given the time it took to prepare this document, there was a cut-off point running months behind.
“So, this document that we shall unveil shortly does not in any particular material represent the actual successful modest achievements of this government as at 9th of September 2026.”
He thanked those who believed in his vision and worked for his election in 2023 and urged those affected in any way by the tough decisions the administration had to make, assuring them that Enugu was on its way to greatness as a $30bn economy and the preferred destination for investment, business, tourism, and living.
“I also want to thank all those who made sacrifices, who lost their friends because they felt supporting us was the right thing to do. I want to thank all those who invested their resources. I want to thank all those who took pains in very unimaginable circumstances to ensure that Enugu moves to the next level.
“But what you must take home with you is that our intentions are noble. What we try to do is to put Enugu on a reversible path of greatness. What we try to do is to ensure that Enugu will not compete with Nigeria or within Nigeria,” he added.
In his welcome address, the Secretary to Enugu State Government, Prof. Chidiebere Onyia, said the state had pursued an extensive urban development agenda, including the New Enugu Smart City, environmental sustainability and urban renewal.
He added that the State’s fiscal architecture had undergone significant reform through revenue automation, reforms at the Enugu State Internal Revenue Service, improved financial management, the Treasury Single Account, enterprise resource planning and broader institutional restructuring.
According to him, the administration had also sustained investments in youth empowerment, women development, technology, skills acquisition, social protection, tourism, environmental sustainability and community development.
He said the ultimate goal is to improve the lives of the people.
“Behind every project is a community; behind every policy is a citizen; and behind every statistic is a human being whose life government seeks to improve,” he concluded.
He also stressed the importance of institutional reforms in sustaining government programmes, stating: “Sustainable development requires not only projects that citizens can see, but institutions and systems that can sustain those projects.”
The Deputy National Chairman (South) of the All Progressives Congress, Dr. Ben Nwoye, commended the administration for its development record and the scale of projects executed across the State.
The Speaker of the Enugu State House of Assembly, Hon. Uchenna Ugwu, commended the Governor for his developmental strides, pledging the continued support of the legislative arm of the state government.
The Chairman of the Enugu State Council of Traditional Rulers, Igwe Samuel Asadu, equally spoke glowingly about the administration’s performance, saying a performing government should be supported to continue till 2031.
“We have never had it so good. It is not about party. But let us give the job to those who understand the job. The governor wants to move the Enugu State economy to a $30bn economy and that is exactly what he is doing,” he stated.
Chief of Staff to the Governor, Victor Udeh, described the compendium as an evidence-based publication and a commitment to accountability.
The event brought together political leaders, traditional and religious leaders, captains of industry, professionals, public servants and other stakeholders, who commended the administration for the scale and spread of its interventions across the State.
Twelve years after his ministry in Kenya, East African Italian-born Catholic priest Sandro Ferretto has married Sharon Jepng’ok, a Tugen woman from Baringo County.
According to Kenya Times, the couple exchanged vows in a traditional ceremony on 6 September at Seretion Village in Kasiela, a community where Mr Ferretto previously served as parish priest.
The event brought together relatives, local leaders, elders and friends of the bride, who witnessed the Koito ceremony, a significant Kalenjin custom centred on dowry negotiations and family blessings.
Ferretto’s ministry
Mr Ferretto, 55, began his priesthood in Italy before taking his ministry to Kenya, where he spent more than a decade working with local communities.
The Diocese of Padua ordained him as a priest, and he arrived in Kenya in 2008 to begin missionary service. He worked around Kasiela and Mochongoi under the Diocese of Nyahururu and became involved in pastoral outreach, youth programmes and community-based development efforts in Baringo.
He eventually returned to Italy in December 2020 with another missionary, Fr Mariano Dal Ponte.
In 2023, the priest assumed responsibility for a pastoral unit in Saletto, Borgo Veneto, in the Padua diocese. His duties covered eight churches in the area.
His tenure, however, lasted only several months. In December 2023, he celebrated a final Mass before stepping aside from the position to take time for reflection.
The decision reportedly caught some of his colleagues off guard because he gave them little notice.
The Diocese of Padua later acknowledged his withdrawal from pastoral duties, stressing that he continued to serve as a priest and had no connection to any controversy. The diocese described the decision as a requested period away from pastoral ministry.
During his break, Mr Ferretto was reportedly involved in volunteer work with a migrant support group in Padua.
Reunion and law
Mr Ferretto later returned to Kenya and reunited with Ms Jepng’ok, whom he met during his missionary work in Baringo.
Residents of the area widely knew him as “Father Sandro” after he spent more than a decade working with families, youth organisations and church congregations. Baringo is also Ms Jepng’ok’s home region.
Catholic canon law requires Latin Rite priests to observe celibacy and bars them from marrying while they remain in active ministry. The Church considers the commitment a lifelong obligation of the priesthood.
For a priest to marry, he must first be formally removed from the clerical state through a process approved by the Vatican. Known as laicisation, the process ends his status as a priest and normally includes a dispensation from the obligation of celibacy.
Only after receiving the necessary approval can a former priest marry. Without it, the marriage would contravene Catholic canon law and would not be recognised by the Church.
The Ondo State Government on Wednesday confirmed the deaths of some people in Odigbo Local Government Area of the state following the consumption of a herbal liquid substance.
No fewer than 24 residents of two communities in the council area, Araromi Obu and Odigbo town, reportedly lost their lives after consuming the substance.
The incident, which was said to have occurred on Saturday, has thrown the affected communities into mourning.
A source in the area said the deceased consumed the substance on Saturday at different locations but later became unconscious, leading to their deaths, while some others who also consumed the substance were rushed to the hospital.
The source said, “They (the deceased) drank the herbal substance and started dying, eight people died in Araromi Obu while 16 lost their lives in Odigbo town but we are yet to confirm if it is what they drank that killed them but we are sure that the people died after drinking the herbal drinks.
“Some of the people died in their sleep while some died when they got home and many are still in the hospital as I am talking to you.”
Confirming the incident in a telephone interview, the Chairman of Odigbo Local Government, Mr Taiwo Adegoroye, said the deceased consumed the substance before the incident, adding that they were waiting for a medical team to carry out autopsies to determine the actual cause of the deaths.
Adegoroye said, “We can confirm the death of 24 people, eight in Araromi Obu and 16 in Odigbo town and many are still on admission at hospitals. But we are yet to ascertain the cause of the death and we are still waiting for the team from the state Ministry of Health to carry out the test on the deceased. That is why we can’t specifically say the real cause.”
The chairman also said he had placed a ban on the sale and consumption of locally brewed alcoholic drinks in the area as a precautionary measure.
According to him, a preliminary verbal autopsy conducted by the local government health team indicated a possible link between the reported deaths and the consumption of the substances.
In the same vein, the state Commissioner for Health, Dr Banji Ajaka, also confirmed the incident in a telephone interview, saying investigations were underway to establish the actual cause of the deaths.
Ajaka did not immediately disclose the specific substance suspected to have caused the deaths, but said medical and health officials would conduct further assessments in the affected communities.
“The government is taking the matter seriously and we will provide more details after the ongoing investigation has established the circumstances surrounding the incident.”
Meanwhile, some youths in the town staged a mini protest and went to the palace of the Odigbo traditional ruler to demand explanations and urgent measures to prevent further loss of life.
Addressing the youths, the monarch of the town, Oba Rufus Akinrinmade, appealed for calm and assured them that efforts would be made to ascertain the circumstances surrounding the deaths and find a lasting solution to the situation.
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