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Poverty level rises to 63% after Fuel Subsidy removal — Report
About 63 per cent of Nigerians fell below the poverty line after the removal of petrol subsidy, according to a new study that examined the welfare impact of the country’s recent economic reforms.
The research, presented at a stakeholders’ dialogue organised by Agora Policy in Abuja on Thursday, showed that the national poverty headcount rose sharply from a baseline of about 49.8 per cent to roughly 63 per cent following the subsidy removal before moderating slightly after the introduction of social protection measures.
The dialogue, themed “Sustaining and Deepening Economic Reforms in Nigeria,” brought together policymakers, economists, civil society leaders, and private sector representatives to examine the effects of the Federal Government’s reform agenda.
Among those present were the Deputy Governor for Economic Policy at the Central Bank of Nigeria, Dr Muhammad Abdullahi; the Special Adviser to the President on Finance and Economy, Ms Sanyade Okoli; the World Bank Senior Economist for Nigeria, Dr Samer Matta; the Country Director of CARE International, Dr Hussaini Abdu; and the Executive Director of Agora Policy, Waziri Adio, among others.
The study, presented by a Senior Lecturer at the Department of Economics, University of Abuja, Dr Mohammed Shuaibu, analysed the economic and social consequences of key reforms introduced by the Federal Government, including the removal of petrol subsidy and adjustments in electricity tariffs.
President Bola Tinubu had announced the end of petrol subsidy during his inaugural address on May 29, 2023. According to the study, the policy triggered broad price increases across the economy and significantly affected household welfare. “After the subsidy removal, poverty increased from a baseline of about 50 per cent to 63 per cent,” Shuaibu said.
He added that the introduction of social protection measures helped moderate the impact but did not fully reverse the deterioration in welfare conditions. “However, when social protection measures such as cash transfers were introduced, the poverty rate moderated to around 56.2 per cent,” he said.
The findings indicated that the immediate effects of the reform were unevenly distributed across different income groups. While high-income households remained largely insulated from the shocks, low-income households experienced the most severe erosion of purchasing power.
Data from the study showed that poverty among low-income households rose sharply from about 50 per cent before subsidy removal to roughly 63 per cent afterwards, while the national poverty gap widened significantly.
The poverty gap at the national level increased from 31.6 per cent to more than 45 per cent following the policy change, indicating a deeper level of deprivation among poor households.
Although social transfers slightly reduced the gap, the improvement remained limited due to delays in the rollout of intervention programmes and the relatively small scale of support provided.
The study also assessed how the reforms affected household consumption patterns. According to the findings, consumption levels declined across income groups following the removal of the subsidy and the adjustment of electricity tariffs.
“Across the board, household consumption declined following both the subsidy removal and electricity tariff adjustments. However, social transfers helped cushion the impact, especially for low-income households,” Shuaibu said.
The analysis showed that the effect on consumption was particularly pronounced among rural and low-income households, where rising energy and transport costs significantly reduced spending capacity.
Households in urban low-income groups also experienced declines in consumption, although the impact was somewhat moderated where social transfers were introduced.
Beyond household welfare, the research also examined the broader macroeconomic consequences of electricity tariff reforms.
The study found that electricity tariff adjustments resulted in a modest increase in consumer prices, initially raising prices by about 0.26 per cent, which later rose to roughly 0.52 per cent after the inclusion of social protection measures.
However, the electricity reform produced a small positive impact on economic output. According to the analysis, real Gross Domestic Product increased by about 0.42 per cent under the reform scenario before moderating to around 0.21 per cent when social protection programmes were factored into the model.
Firm-level investment also recorded slight gains following electricity tariff adjustments, although these improvements were partly offset by the cost of implementing social protection measures.
In contrast, the removal of the petrol subsidy had a contractionary effect on economic activity. The study showed that rising fuel prices and transport costs triggered inflationary pressures that weighed on business activity and investment.
Beyond the quantitative modelling, the research incorporated insights from focus group discussions conducted across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones. These discussions involved households and businesses and provided qualitative evidence on how Nigerians were coping with the economic changes.
Participants generally acknowledged the need for reforms given the country’s fiscal and macroeconomic challenges, but many criticised the speed at which the policies were introduced.
Households reported that the reforms rapidly eroded purchasing power and forced many families to adopt survival strategies. “Households adjusted to the shocks not through recovery but through sacrifice,” Shuaibu said.
According to the study, many households responded by cutting consumption, reducing transport use, rationing electricity, and borrowing money to meet basic needs. Several respondents also said they had received little or no assistance from government support programmes designed to mitigate the effects of the reforms.
Businesses reported similar difficulties, noting that rising fuel and electricity costs significantly increased operating expenses. Some firms said they had been forced to raise prices, reduce staff strength, or shut down operations entirely.
Others reported switching to alternative energy sources to cope with rising electricity tariffs and fuel costs. However, many business owners said that promised government support programmes had either not reached them or were insufficient to offset rising costs.
The study concluded that while the reforms were necessary to correct structural distortions in the Nigerian economy, their implementation created severe short-term shocks.
Providing a monetary policy perspective at the dialogue, the Deputy Governor of the CBN for Economic Policy, Muhammad Abdullahi, said the reforms became unavoidable because the Nigerian economy had been weakened by deep structural distortions.
“Nigeria faced severe macroeconomic imbalances, economic distortions, and collapsing revenues before major reforms began,” he said.
According to Abdullahi, the country had suffered a dramatic decline in oil revenue over the past decade.
He disclosed that earnings from crude oil fell from about $92bn in 2012 to less than $2bn in 2023, representing a decline of nearly 98 per cent in expected revenue during the period.
The situation, he said, contributed to severe fiscal pressure and made policy reforms unavoidable. The CBN official also noted that Nigeria inherited major distortions in the foreign exchange market, including multiple exchange rate windows that encouraged arbitrage.
According to him, the subsidy regime and exchange rate distortions together were estimated to have cost the Nigerian economy about six per cent of its Gross Domestic Product.
Abdullahi also disclosed that the CBN inherited a backlog of about $7bn in foreign exchange obligations owed to businesses and investors. He said the apex bank had already cleared about $4.5bn of the backlog in an effort to restore confidence in the financial system.
He added that restoring confidence in the foreign exchange market and improving oil sector performance were critical to stabilising the economy. Abdullahi also said Nigeria’s foreign reserve position was weaker than it appeared before the reforms.
Although official reserves were reported to be about $32bn, he explained that much of the funds consisted of borrowed resources and swaps, leaving the country with net reserves of only about $800m.
Despite the difficult transition, he said the reforms were beginning to produce early results. According to him, inflation has been declining steadily for about 19 months, while food inflation is currently at its lowest level in about 13 years.
He added that Nigeria was gradually moving towards single-digit inflation, something the country has not achieved in more than a decade. Abdullahi further stated that net foreign reserves had improved significantly, rising from about $800m to roughly $32bn, a development he said had strengthened international investor confidence.
He also pointed to rising non-oil exports, which reached about $6bn last year, with the government targeting $12bn in the near future.
Also speaking at the dialogue, the Director-General of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Dr Chinyere Almona, said the reforms had corrected several long-standing distortions but had also placed heavy pressure on businesses.
Almona noted that the removal of petrol subsidy alone could save the government about $7.5bn annually, which should be invested in infrastructure and human capital development. “For the private sector, what we want to see is that the savings from the fuel subsidy removal are actually being used to fund infrastructure,” she said.
She explained that rising fuel prices had significantly increased electricity generation costs for businesses. Almona added that while macroeconomic indicators such as reserves and the balance of payments had improved, many Nigerians had yet to experience the benefits.
“The economy is improving at the macro level, but that improvement has not trickled down to the common man and many small businesses,” she said.
She therefore urged the government to introduce complementary policies that would support businesses, including improved access to credit and targeted assistance for small and medium-sized enterprises.
The Chair of Agora Policy, Ojobo Ode Atuluku, said the dialogue was organised to promote evidence-based discussion on Nigeria’s reform agenda. He explained that the initiative was supported by the Nigeria Economic Stability and Transformation programme and the United Kingdom’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office.
World Bank economist Samer Matta urged the government to expand social protection programmes and strengthen the National Social Register to ensure that assistance reaches vulnerable populations quickly.
He added that sustained dialogue and stronger safety nets would be critical to maintaining public support for Nigeria’s economic reforms and ensuring that growth becomes more inclusive.
…Set to launch hospital, targets large share of medical tourism
_…Facility attracts outpouring of interest from diaspora medics
Ahead of the imminent inauguration of the Enugu International Hospital, Governor Peter Mbah of Enugu State has undertaken a tour of the facility, declaring that Enugu State was ready to welcome the world.
Mbah said the hospital was now fully installed with state-of-the-art medical equipment and would help to reverse medical tourism out of the country, ensuring that the state secures a large chunk of the multibillion-dollar market.
Fielding questions from newsmen on Thursday evening after a pre-launch walkthrough of the facility situated at Rangers Avenue, Independence Layout, Enugu, Mbah said the hospital was a product of a deliberate health agenda.
“If you recall our manifesto during our campaign for office, we made it clear that we were committed to making Enugu a medical tourism hub on the continent.
“We knew the size of that market and wanted to have a good share of that market. But we knew also that it was never going to be wished into existence.
“We knew that we needed to do things differently and build a world-class facility and, most importantly, attract top-notch professionals to provide services. We cannot wait to welcome the world to Enugu,” he stated.
Mbah regretted that there was just about one functional location for PET Scan services in the country, but noted that the hospital would now bridge the wide gap in advanced medical services in the country.
“We have quite a lot of Ndi Enugu, and Nigerians who travel to India, Turkey, the United States, and the United Kingdom to seek medical attention. So, what we are asking for is just a fraction of what they would have spent overseas for the same quality services,” he said.
“We felt that if we want to compete globally, then we must also have the ability to provide advanced oncology services. Therefore, we are not only able to give you an advanced diagnosis, but we’re also able to treat. So, both diagnostically and therapeutically, the place to come to is right here in Enugu.
“We have also received an outpouring of interest from our healthcare professionals in the diaspora. Some of them were doing well here at some point and now went overseas to practice. They are now happy to come back home and give back to the society that nurtured them. We are excited about that,” he stated.
He added that the Enugu International Hospital would equally engage in telemedicine as one of its areas of strength.
“Of course, you may be in love with the building and the equipment, but you should also engage professionals from across the globe. You see this in our commitment to telemedicine, digital and electronic medical practices and equipment,” he explained.
He emphasised that the hospital was part of his administration’s agenda for the health sector as a major part of his government’s vision to grow the state’s economy from $4.4bn to $30bn, and ensure high quality and increased life expectancy for the people.
“If you look at our intervention in the healthcare sector, from the primary healthcare to the secondary, tertiary, and now the quaternary, it is intentional.
“We are investing heavily in security and healthcare because we know that these are what investors would ask you: ‘Am I safe? If I fall sick, would I have a place where I can get quality medical attention?’” he said, adding that the hospital would also create jobs.
Speaking, the Chief Executive Officer, Prof. Sam Agwu, listed six specialty areas the hospital would provide services in once commissioned.
“We have earmarked six specialty centres here. In the Cancer Centre, we are going to provide medical, surgical, and nuclear medicine therapeutics and diagnostics.
“Then we are going to have the Heart and Vascular Centre of Excellence to deal with all heart problems and open-heart surgery, as you may know; cardiology consultation and diagnostics, electrophysiology and arrhythmia care, coronary care and acute cardiac pathways, interventional cardiology and cath-lab procedures, heart-failure and cardiac rehabilitation clinics, and of course vascular assessment and collaborative surgical care.
“We are going to have the Neurosciences Centre where we will deal with stroke, epilepsy, brain and spine tumours, neurosurgical procedures, among others.
“We are going to have a Renal and Transplant Centre of Excellence covering full kidney, chronic kidney disease clinics, early nephrology review, dialysis support and transplant assessment.
“Then, apart from all the centres of excellence, we are going to have wellness and regenerative medicine, while the usual departments that you know of – mother and child, general surgery, ENT, dental, ophthalmology, among others – will all be here.
Former Chairman of the Nigerian Medical Association, Enugu State, Dr. Sunday Nwafor, hailed the milestone, saying the hospital would promote brain gain by reversing the mass exodus of medical doctors from the country.
“Going forward, our doctors have a place of international standard where they can practice with state-of-the-art equipment and also earn well,” he said.
Mbah was accompanied by the Commissioner for Health, Prof. George Ugwu, among others.
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Vanguard alumni are set to unveil a commemorative book chronicling the newspaper’s 40-year journey, evolution and distinctive newsroom culture.
Titled The Chronology of Vanguard Newspaper, the book captures the experiences, contributions and memories of journalists, editors and other professionals who helped shape the newspaper’s legacy.
The publication will be unveiled as part of activities marking Vanguard’s enduring legacy, with former staff expected to reconnect, share memories and celebrate the institution that shaped generations of media professionals.
The book project was announced during an appearance on Villa Square, a special segment of Cre8tive 9ja, a weekly tourism and culture magazine programme hosted by veteran tourism journalist Frank Meke and Bunmi Bade-Adeniji on Mainland 98.3FM.
Speaking on the programme, members of the Vanguard Alumni Planning Committee, including Coordinator Sam Eferaro, Chairman Agnes Otsemobor and member Funmi Komolafe, reflected on their experiences at the newspaper and the enduring bond among former staff.
Eferaro said Vanguard’s distinctive work culture continued to unite former employees long after they had left the organisation.
“Vanguard has a rich work culture for its staff and there is no way you will work for Vanguard Newspaper and forget about the experience. Even after years of retirement, we still communicate together because we have a platform where we share information, interact and help each other,” he said.
According to him, the anniversary gathering would provide an opportunity for former staff to reconnect, celebrate their shared history and relive memorable moments from their years at the newspaper.
He said the book, which took several years to compile, received contributions from more than 20 editors and would serve as a valuable resource for journalists, journalism students and researchers interested in the history of the Nigerian media.
Eferaro urged young and aspiring journalists to read the publication and draw lessons from the experiences documented in it.
He also described the Vanguard newsroom as one of the most vibrant in the country, recalling the creativity, competitiveness and camaraderie that characterised the organisation in its formative years.
According to him, the newsroom culture encouraged journalists to pursue exclusive stories and develop compelling headlines that attracted readers and strengthened the newspaper’s position in the competitive media market.
Otsemobor described Vanguard Publisher, Sam Amuka-Pemu, popularly known as Uncle Sam, as a father figure whose leadership helped shape the careers of generations of journalists.
She said Amuka-Pemu created an environment in which staff developed a strong sense of belonging and responsibility towards the organisation.
“Uncle Sam Amuka-Pemu is a doyen of journalism who got all of us together. We started Vanguard from nothing, but we had this camaraderie and he made us feel like a family. He ensured everyone gave their all to the job to make sure that the paper became such a success as it is today,” she said.
Recalling her experience at Vanguard in the 1990s, Otsemobor said the publisher maintained an informal and convivial relationship with staff.
She recalled occasions when employees gathered around him during informal moments at the office, describing him as “a jolly good fellow.”
Meke, who chairs the venue committee and began his journalism career at Vanguard, said the newspaper played an important role in creating opportunities for journalists, particularly women, to develop their careers.
He said Vanguard’s influence on its former employees extended beyond the workplace.
“Vanguard is a spirit that can never get out of you as a staff. For us, the members of the Alumni body, we are just seeing ourselves for the first time in many years. I am fully committed to the Vanguard spirit and the event will be filled with fun,” Meke said.
He said the anniversary programme would feature discussions and reminiscences aimed at bringing to light some of the experiences behind Vanguard’s growth and success, particularly its distinctive newsroom culture.
Meke added that former staff would use the occasion to reconnect, share memories and celebrate the institution that played a significant role in shaping their professional lives.
Komolafe urged young journalists to remain committed to the ethics of the profession and use journalism as a tool for positive contributions to society.
She advised journalists to distinguish facts from opinions, verify information before publication and maintain balance in their reports.
“As a journalist, you have a conscience and you know what is right and wrong. Do your reporting and do not manipulate facts. Do not put out your ideas as fact because, as we used to say in journalism, when you doubt, you find out,” she said.
Komolafe further urged young journalists to remain focused, uphold professional standards and prepare themselves for the challenges of the profession.
She stressed that accuracy, fairness and integrity should remain central to journalism, noting that credibility was among the most valuable assets of a journalist.
Vanguard Media was founded by veteran journalist and publisher Sam Amuka-Pemu in 1984. The newspaper began as a weekly publication on June 3, 1984, before becoming a daily newspaper on July 3, 1984.
Over four decades, Vanguard has established itself as one of Nigeria’s major newspapers, with its motto, “Towards a better life for the people,” reflecting its longstanding focus on issues affecting ordinary Nigerians and the wider society.
The newspaper marked its 40th anniversary in 2024, prompting former editors, journalists and other members of staff to reflect on its evolution and enduring legacy.
The commemorative book project is part of efforts by the Vanguard Alumni to preserve the newspaper’s history, professional experiences and institutional memory for present and future generations.
The approval was contained in a letter signed by the Secretary to the Enugu State Government, Prof. Chidiebere Onyia, dated August 11, 2026, and addressed to the Accountant General of the state.
According to the letter, the approval followed a report submitted by the Joint Action Committee on Trade Union (JACTU) in ESUT over issues surrounding a one-month strike ultimatum issued by the university’s unions.
The government also approved an across-the-board increase of N50,000 for all other categories of staff of the university.
The SSG directed the Accountant General to fully implement the approval of Governor Peter Ndubuisi Mbah.
The directive referenced an earlier Government House letter dated August 7, 2026, on the matter.
The letter, which was copied to the Vice-Chancellor of ESUT, Professor Aloysius-Michaels Okolie, for information and necessary action, is expected to take effect from September 1, 2026.
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