
Politics
New nationwide poll puts Peter Obi ahead of Atiku, Tinubu
…Runoff likely in 2023 presidential election
Another new face-to-face nationwide poll on the 2023 general elections has put the Labour Party Presidential candidate, Peter Obi, ahead with 37% of the survey respondents.
Obi is followed by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, Atiku Abubakar, who secured 27% of the survey responses, while the All Progressive Congress (APC) candidate, Bola Tinubu, secured 24% with New Nigerian Peoples Party (NNPP) candidate securing at 6% of survey respondents.
This disclosure is contained in a press statement by Nextier, an African-focused consulting firm, where it presented the second presidential poll it conducted, on Friday, January 27, 2023, 4 weeks before the scheduled presidential elections.
The Nextier team used a sample size of 3,000 respondents and generated a margin of error of 2% at a 95% confidence interval.
The survey sample represented the age and gender demographics in Nigeria’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory. Although Labour Party secured the highest voter preference, it is unlikely to secure an outright first-round victory. None of the presidential candidates met both criteria for victory in the first round: a majority of votes cast and 25% in two-thirds of the states.

Runoff election likely despite Labour party lead
The survey results show that Labour Party can achieve 25% of the votes in 23 states, meaning that the presidential election could head to a runoff between Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar or Bola Tinubu.
Most registered voters (72%) have decided on their preferred party. This result is consistent across rural and urban voters. Similarly, the survey data demonstrates that respondents are certain in their choices.
The survey showed that 83% of the respondents indicated that nothing would make them change their preferred party before the election. It is important to note that the survey questionnaire showed the party logos and names instead of the candidates’ names or images.
Significantly higher voter turnout expected in 2023 presidential election
Nextier in its report from the survey noted that voter turnout in the 2023 presidential election could be significantly higher than in 2019. For instance, 77% of respondents indicated that they ‘will vote in this election, while 63% stated that they “will definitely vote.”
This level of commitment was consistent across all age and gender demographics in rural and urban communities. Despite the voter commitment, turnout could be depressed by a combination of factors, which include insecurity, concerns about the freedom and fairness of the election, and concerns about the impartiality of Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission(INEC).
Only 52% of the respondents trust that the elections will be free and fair. Only 47% of respondents trust that INEC will not manipulate the results.
2023 election to be the most keenly contested in decades
The founding partner of Nextier, Patrick O. Okigbo stated that the 2023 presidential election is shaping to be one of the most keenly contested races in recent decades.
He said, ‘’It is exciting to see Nigerians take their civic responsibilities seriously.’’
He confirmed that, in addition to the two national polls, Nextier would continue to provide data analysis and insights on Nigeria’s selections and other development issues.
In summary, although the Labour Party secured the highest voter preference, Nigeria’s 2023 presidential elections will likely go into a second-round runoff with Peter Obi and one of either Atiku Abubakar or Bola Tinubu.
For the record
- This is the second poll that Nextier is conducted in recent times for the 2023 presidential elections.
- Recall that in November 2022, Nextier had in an opinion poll it conducted, tipped Peter Obi to be the winner of the 2023 election if it was held then.
- Conducted in rural communities, the survey interviewed 2,000 Nigerian registered voters in 12 states across the six geopolitical zones. The Nextier survey team said they excluded the home states of the leading presidential and vice-presidential candidates.
- The poll suggests a 3-horse presidential race between Mr. Obi, Bola Tinubu of the APC, and Atiku Abubakar of the PDP. Though with a strong support base in Nigeria’s north-west, particularly his Kano home state, Rabiu Kwankwaso of the NNPP is not considered a top contender, according to the survey.
- The poll results show that Mr. Obi leads in rural communities at 40.37%. Mr. Abubakar is at a distant second with 26.7%, closely followed by Tinubu at 20.47%.
News
Tinubu’s re-election: Uzodinma, Umahi don’t speak for Ndigbo — Igbo Community in FC
Ahead the 2027 Presidential election, the leadership of the Igbo Community Association (ICA) the umbrella socio-cultural organization in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) strongly refutes and rejects the recent statements made by Imo State Governor Hope Uzodimma, Minister of Works David Umahi, and Senate Deputy Chief Whip Onyekachi Nwebonyi claiming that the South-East electorate is fully united behind President Bola Tinubu’s re-election bid.
President General of the Igbo ethnic body, Nze Engr. Ikenna Ellis-Ezenekwe stated in a press Statement on Monday emphatically stated that the three of them are neither spokespersons of Igbos in the FCT. He added that, “these three are merely being sent out to talk for Tinubu against the interest of Igbos. The South-East considers the Tinubu administration as a failed administration and for this reason will not vote Tinubu.”
The ICA President noted for the avoidance of doubt, that it wishes to set the record straight for the public and the political establishment that the mandate to speak for the Igbo People neither lie in the hand of Governor Hope Uzodimma, Minister David Umahi, nor Senator Onyekachi Nwebonyi who under Tinubu arrogate to themselves as the spokespersons for the Igbo ethnic group.
Nze Ikenna Ellis-Ezenekwe, further agued that elected political appointees and ruling-party actors do not hold a mandate to declare a political consensus on behalf of millions of Igbo citizens.
The statement reads further, “These endorsements represent the personal political preservation strategies of a few office holders seeking to retain favor with the presidency. They do not reflect the true political stance, socio-economic realities, or grassroots sentiment of the South-East region.

“The grassroots population across the South-East considers the current federal administration to have failed on key economic and administrative metrics.
“The assertion that President Tinubu will sweep all five South-East states in 2027 is completely detached from the prevailing conditions on the ground.”
Meanwhile, The Igbo Community Association (ICA) FCT urges public officials from the South-East to focus on their constitutional duties, governance, and the immediate economic needs of their constituents, rather than attempting to trade away the political sovereignty of the Igbo electorate for personal leverage.
Politics
Osun Election: Don’t allow a repeat of 1983 crisis – Adeleke warns Tinubu
…Says Osun won’t tolerate rigging
Osun State Governor, Ademola Adeleke, has warned President Bola Tinubu not to allow rigging the August 15 governorship election in the State or risk political violence as witnessed in 1983.
The Governor, who was addressing party supporters at Orita-Sabo in Olorunda local government area of Osun State on Monday, also said the President must wake up to his responsibility of protecting the people from police harassment.
According to him, the President is watching without concern, the political crisis in Osun being perpetrated by his party chieftains despite the fact that Accord has endorsed him as the 2027 Presidential candidate.
“Mr President, I want you to take note of my words, I m the Chief Security officer of Osun, you are a Yoruba man and Osun is Yorubaland, yet, your party chieftains are perpetrating political violence while you look the other way.
“Mr President, all we demand for is a free and fair election, if anybody try to do otherwise, the political crisis of 1983, when some people tried to rig Michael Ajasin in Ondo State out of power, may repeat itself again.

“Mr President call your people to order, call police chiefs to order, I am the governor here not any other person. Accord has already endorsed you as it’s candidate, why are we suffering again.
“You fought for democracy in Nigeria and you must not allow your people destroy it. Wake up to your responsibility Mr President, stop the shenanigans going on in Osun”, he warned.
Earlier, the Imole Campaign Council Director-General, Senator Lere Oyewumi tasked the people to troop out en masse to cast their votes for the party as the only way to return Adeleke to office again.
He said the good work of the governor is enough to warrant the people to vote for him again, calling on the electorates to votes and protect their vote on election day.
Editorial
ADDRESS BY THE PRESIDENT OF THE CATHOLIC BISHOPS’ CONFERENCE OF NIGERIA DURING A COURTESY VISIT TO HIS EXCELLENCY, PRESIDENT BOLA AHMED TINUBU, GCFR ON 28 JULY 2026 (FULL TEXT)
PARTNERS IN BUILDING A JUST, PEACEFUL AND PROSPEROUS NIGERIA
Mr. President,
1. Greetings: I bring you warm greetings and prayers from all the members of the Catholic Bishops’ Conference of Nigeria. I am Archbishop Matthew Man-Oso Ndagoso, the Archbishop of Kaduna and the newly elected President of our Conference. I thank you immensely for granting us this audience, which offers us the opportunity to share with you some of our observations and genuine concerns about our country. This ensures the continuity of our collaborative engagement in the task of building a healthy nation that all of us would be proud to belong to: “a nation of justice, love and peace.”
2. The Visit of Archbishop Gallagher: Your Excellency, may we use this opportunity to express our gratitude to you and the Ministry of External Affairs for the warm reception that you gave to the Holy See’s Secretary for Relations with States and International Organisations, Archbishop Paul Gallagher, during his recent visit on the occasion of the fiftieth anniversary of Diplomatic Relations between the Holy See and the Federal Republic of Nigeria. We, as Nigerians and Catholics, are happy to share the two identities and proud of the healthy and unbroken relations between the two states. We believe that the relations will bear perceptible fruits for Christianity and Christians in our country. This, Mr. President, is a time when many Christians have legitimate concerns about their place in Nigeria, especially regarding the departure from the Christian/Muslim presidency, and we hope that, through deliberate government policies, those concerns will be addressed and Christians will be reassured of their rights as citizens. We expect that you will take steps to soothe frayed nerves and address the concerns.
3. Quality tertiary education and the challenge of limited spaces: Mr. President, Sir, you have shown a commitment to giving hope and succour to our youth through NELFund, the Student Loan Initiative. This deserves commendation. Unfortunately, by global standards, Nigeria does not as yet have enough universities to cater for a bulging youth population. Only a tiny fraction of the persons seeking admission into the university actually get it, owing to limited number of places available. We therefore hope that the recent moratorium placed by the National Universities Commission (NUC) on the establishment of new private universities does not cancel out the gains of NELFund.

4. Sustaining the gains of the democratic experience: Mr. President, on matters of the state, we are genuinely concerned by fears expressed across the country on the fate of opposition politics. You have a track record of having been in active opposition. Many voices are screaming over what they consider to be the constriction of the political space, with some fearing that a one-party state is being anticipated. Whether these fears are genuine or not, can only be tested by the signals citizens receive from Your Excellency as the leader of the party in power. To this end, we urge you to encourage elected political office holders who are members of your party – Governors, members of the National Assembly, Local Government Chairmen – to ensure that a genuine level playing field is maintained and that focus is placed on making everyone see that the rules and processes are fair to all and respected by all. As a man who risked so much in the struggle for the return of democratic rule in the dark days of military dictatorship, your greatest legacy would be the strengthening of our democratic institutions.
5. Credible elections for the avoidance of disaster: Furthermore, there have been growing concerns about the electoral processes. We note the efforts being made to ensure that the elections are free, fair and credible. Sadly, there is an increasing feeling of disenchantment with the clear manipulation of the electoral processes, and the collective feeling that people’s votes do not count. Lower voter turnouts are a mark of distrust in the electoral processes. It is our hope that you be on the forefront in demanding that the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, delivers credible elections, to ensure that Nigeria is set on the path of national development and integrity. This ought to start with making voters’ cards easily available to all eligible voters and end with election results that reflect the true choice of Nigerians. Adequate and timely funding of INEC is required to ensure that the Agency inspires the confidence of citizens. Anything short of transparent, free, fair and credible elections in 2027 would be an invitation to avoidable disaster against which all well-meaning Nigerians have been praying. We urge that the conduct of the political class should be in tune with the voices we lift to God in prayer.
6. But we need to be alive and secure first: Mr. President, we congratulate you for the recent successful release of the kidnapped school children and their teachers in Oyo State. The arrest of some of the kidnappers and their speedy prosecution is one of the few positive indicators of what a willing government and its agencies could do to protect the life and property of the citizens. We commend you for this and for other such cases in recent times. Unfortunately, these remain few and isolated exceptions. Our nation still remains a favourable destination for terrorism, banditry and high levels of insecurity that threaten our collective existence. Schools, places of worship, homes, farms, rural roads and highways. Nowhere is safe anymore, as bandits and criminals freely carry away scores of worshippers and schoolchildren, even in broad daylight undisturbed, kidnap and butcher simple as well as high profile citizens mercilessly and unapologetically. Our sovereignty is at stake and, even by African standards, our insecurity continues to diminish our standing and our ability to serve as the leader of Africa.
7. Worsening quality of life, suffering and pain: When the security situation in the country is taken together with the deterioration and near collapse of the power sector, the sorry state of our roads, the economic hardship, one wonders how much of the renewed hope agenda flaunted by your administration is being realised. Mr President, our nation is bleeding. The citizens are suffering and crying. Not only on account of the constant threat to their life by criminal elements, but also because of some policies of government whose promised positive effects have been delayed too long before being felt. You have said a couple of times that you hear their cries and feel their pain. But words are not enough. They expect concrete action that engenders some change in their condition.
8. Pope Leo XIV among us will strengthen our collective prayers and efforts: Finally, we believe that the problems and burden of our nation require a sincere commitment to good governance for the common good to the glory of God. We continue to pray for our dear country and appeal to you to take seriously our pleas for greater collaboration between the Church and the State for the overall wellbeing of our people. We believe that Mr President is aware that the Holy Father, Pope Leo holds our country very close to his heart and constantly prays for us. During our visit to him in March this year, he was quite enthusiastic about a visit to Nigeria on a date in the future. As you know, Sir, that will only happen if you invite him. We request that this be done soon. Our land and its people will benefit immensely from his presence and blessing.
9. Two particular requests: Mr. President, we respectfully place two specific requests before Your Excellency. First, we ask that Your Excellency give favourable consideration to the request on the return of mission schools to their original proprietors. We recall that this matter was raised during our meeting with you last year, and we remain hopeful that your Government will take the necessary steps towards its implementation.
Second, in the light of the Supreme Court judgment of 10 February 2026 affirming the constitutional right of Muslim students at Rivers State University to freedom of religion and worship, we respectfully request that Your Excellency direct the appropriate Ministries, Departments and Agencies of Government to ensure that this same constitutional principle is faithfully implemented throughout the Federation. In particular, we appeal that Christians, especially in the northern part of the country, who continue to face difficulties in acquiring land for the construction of churches or in freely exercising their right to worship, should enjoy the same constitutional rights and protection accorded to all Nigerians. Equal citizenship must be reflected not only in law but also in practice.
Once again, we thank you very sincerely for granting us this audience. We pray that the Almighty and merciful God may grant you the wisdom and strength to lead our nation and all its citizens towards that greatness that God has destined for us.
Matthew Man-Oso NDAGOSO
Archbishop of Kaduna
President, CBCN
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