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2023: Obi leads Tinubu, Atiku, Kwankwaso in fresh Anap Poll

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For the second time in four months, another poll concluded in December has shown that the 2023 presidential candidate of the Labour Party, LP, Peter Obi is ahead of the three other frontline candidates.

The poll conducted by NOI Polls Limited and commissioned by Anap Foundation showed that Obi leads Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress, APC; the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar and the New Nigeria People’s Party, NNPP, candidate, Rabiu Kwankwaso.

The Anap Foundation President, Atedo Peterside revealed this known while speaking during a live appearance on Channels Television’s Politics Today programme on Wednesday.

He said the election has moved past a three-horse race, adding that an earlier poll released in September, was a four-horse race.

Peterside said Obi has 23 percent, Tinubu scored 13, Atiku got 10 and Kwankwaso polled 2 percent in the fresh poll released in December.

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His words, “Nobody has gained or lost more than 2, 3 percent. I don’t know whether that is good news or bad news but it is as if nothing has happened fundamentally, no significant shift.”

He further said that mobile phones were the instruments used to conduct the poll because of increased mobile phone penetration in the country, pointing out that a large percentage of people are undecided.

Peterside also noted that the interest level in the next general elections was driven by economic challenges plaguing the nation including, poverty, insecurity, among others, adding further that the appetite of the youths in this election is high and carpeted candidates who have dodged presidential debates.

Anap Foundation had released a similar poll in September in which Obi also led the other 17 candidates in the race for Aso Rock’s top job in 2023.

Peterside’s statement read;

Peter Obi consolidates lead in a Fragmented Presidential Race

December 21, 2022

Ahead of the forthcoming 2023 Presidential elections, a recent nationwide opinion poll commissioned by Anap Foundation and conducted by NOI Polls Limited was concluded in early December 2022. The Poll revealed a significant lead by Mr. Peter Obi of the Labour Party, LP, with Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress, APC, and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) both trailing him. Dr. Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party, NNPP, emerged as the lone outsider.
The results showed a significant lead for Mr. Peter Obi with 23% of voters proposing to vote for him if the presidential election were to be conducted today; and 13% proposing to vote for Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu who fell in second place. Alhaji Abubakar Atiku was third with 10% and Dr. Rabiu Kwankwaso was a distant fourth with 2% of voters proposing to vote for him.
Mr. Peter Obi’s 10%-point lead at this stage is significant, but not sufficient to separate him from a leading pack of candidates scoring 13%, 10% and 2%.
Undecided voters and those who prefer not to reveal their preferred candidate add up to a whopping 29% and 23% respectively. The gender split of undecided voters shows that 38% of women are undecided versus 21% of male voters.
Poll Question: Suppose the presidential election is being conducted today, who are you likely to vote for?
Poll Question: Suppose the presidential election is being conducted today, who are you likely to vote for?
Total (%) Distribution across Geo-Political Zones

Poll Ranking

North    Central North East North West South East South South South West
Peter Obi, LP,  23% 24% 8% 11% 50% 46% 15% 1st

Bola Tinubu, APC, 13% 9% 15% 15% 1% 9% 22% 2nd

Atiku Abubakar, PDP, 10% 8% 23% 17% 1% 3% 4% 3rd

Rabiu Kwankwaso, NNPP, 2% 1% 2% 6% 0% 1% 1% 4th

Undecided 29% 35% 38% 32% 25% 26% 20%
Refused 23% 23% 14% 19% 23% 15% 38%

Total 100%

Source: NOIPolls – December 2022

The percentage of registered voters and/or voters with their permanent voter’s card is as follows in each of the zones – 90% in the North East, 89% in the South West and 88% in the South South. The lowest voter registration percentages were recorded in the North Central with 87%, North West with 86% and the South East with 84%.

The chart below captures the overall position of the four (4) leading Presidential candidates by aggregating and weighing their scores in proportion to population totals across Nigeria based on the findings of our September and December 2022 polls. The percentage of voters refusing to disclose the name of their preferred candidate has increased sharply from 15% to 23% making it difficult for us to ascertain if any of the candidates has picked up significant momentum between September and December 2023.

When asked if religion would affect the choice of respondents, data gathered showed that 15% of the respondents replied in the affirmative to religion influencing their choice of candidates but 81% on the other hand, responded that their choices were not being influenced by religion; in the same vein, 10% responded in the affirmative to ethnicity affecting their choice of candidates while 86% responded that their choices were not influenced by ethnicity.

Furthermore, the data summarizes the top five reasons why voters are more inclined to vote in the forthcoming elections, these include: – The need to tackle insecurity (35%), Economy, 26%, Unemployment, 10%, Poverty alleviation, 7%, and Education, 6%.

71% of the respondents think the Presidential candidates should compulsorily participate in a televised debate and/or town hall meeting, with the debates/town hall meetings spanning across topics like their manifestos, competence checks, and personality recognition amongst others.

It is worthy of note that 73% of those aged 18-25, 82% of those aged 26-35, 85% of those aged 36-45, 86% of those aged 46-60 and 82% of those aged 61+ responded that they would definitely vote in the coming elections. The age groups that expressed the greatest willingness to vote were those between 36-45 and 46-60 years.

The Poll shows that almost 8 in 10 registered voters are absolutely certain that they would be voting in the next presidential election. If they stay committed then we could witness a huge turnout in the February Presidential 2023 elections.

While this Poll result shows some significant trends, it is key to note that the battle ahead lies in the hands of the undecided/swing voters as they would ultimately decide which candidate takes the lead to emerge as the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in the 2023 presidential elections.

This result was polled from 1,000 respondents; after which Anap Foundation conducted similar polls with a 2,000 and 3,000 respondents sample size, the difference in the results was not significant.

The high percentage of voters (38%) who refused to disclose their preferred candidate in the South West Zone is worrisome. For other zones, those who refused to disclose their preferred candidate ranged from 14-23%. At 38%, the South West figure is an outlier. Historically, an exceedingly high percentage of voters refusing to disclose their preferred candidate is usually associated with perceptions/fears (real or imagined) of possible voter intimidation within a geographical area.

In summary, our December 2022 Polls are inconclusive in terms of establishing a clear winner as the undecided voters, combined with the voters who refused to disclose their preferences, are enough to turn the tables.
However, Anap Foundation has concluded that the trends are clear enough to establish the front-runners and so our subsequent polls will continue to concentrate on the 4 leading candidates only.

Signed:Atedo N A Peterside CON,
President & Founder, Anap Foundation

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2027: I’m ready to die protecting my vote — Obi

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NDC presidential candidate, Peter Obi
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Peter Obi, Presidential Candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), has declared that he is ready to lose his life while protecting his votes in the 2027 election.

Speaking at a town hall meeting in Port Harcourt, Rivers State capital, on Thursday, Obi charged Nigerians to prevent a repeat of the “irregularities” witnessed during the 2023 general election.

In 2023, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) failed to upload election results electronically due to the alleged failure of IReV.

Critics had accused the commission of hiding under the alleged failure of IReV to rig the election against the opposition.

Obi, who ran under Labour Party, and former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar who was candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), had rejected the declaration of President Bola Tinubu as winner of the election and headed to the court.

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But Tinubu’s election victory was upheld by the court.

Speaking at the event tagged: “Obi Talks Nigeria”, the NDC Presidential Candidate said those plotting to manipulate the election would fail in their mission.

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He urged his supporters to go all out and exercise their franchise on election day, saying no one would intimidate them or prevent their votes from counting.

“Nobody will intimidate us again at the polling booth. If you get to any polling booth today, the highest number of officials you see is five. The average number of voters is 40 to 50. There is no way five people will intimidate 50 people.”

“This time all of us will rescue our country. Somebody said, ‘We are ready to die.’ Let me tell you, I’m ready to die too.

“We will make sure we have coordination to ensure that such intimidation does not arise. Yes, they will try to manipulate the IReV. But let me tell you, it will not be easy this time,” he said.

“There will be so many IReVs this time. If there is a network glitch, we will give them another one that has no glitch,” he said.

“By allowing them to continue, that glitch will glitch our lives. That is what we are suffering today,” Obi said.

On his part, NDC Vice Presidential Candidate, Rabiu Kwankwaso, appealed to voters to avoid past mistakes of not choosing competent leaders with the capacity to address the country’s challenges.

He said despite the number of states that the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) currently controls, the party will still lose the next election.

“I believe that Nigerians must not make mistakes again. This is the time to get it right. And anything to the contrary, I believe people, if they make a mistake, certainly people will regret making that mistake. Because it will be too costly for the people and the country.”

“Jonathan was the president, the sitting president lost the election. I’ve given you an example, especially those who think because they have over 30 governors, they cannot lose the election. That was a very big mistake,” he said. (Daily Trust)

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Peter Obi questions President’s past, demands transparency over Educational Records

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The presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), Mr. Peter Obi, has criticised the moves by a sitting President to prevent the release of records concerning his past, particularly documents relating to his educational credentials.

In a tweet, the NDC presidential candidate said he was deeply saddened by the direction in which Nigeria was heading, describing it as “profoundly embarrassing” that a sitting President would ask a foreign court to withhold records concerning his past, particularly where such records relate to matters of legitimate public interest.

Obi argued that leadership requires the courage and humility to confront one’s past rather than shield uncomfortable aspects of it from legitimate scrutiny.

“Leadership, in my humble view, demands the courage and humility to confront one’s history — to acknowledge mistakes, provide candid explanations where questions arise, and, where necessary, apologise and seek forgiveness,” he said.

According to him, true authority is strengthened, rather than diminished, when leaders accept responsibility instead of attempting to conceal controversial aspects of their past.

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He said the matter becomes even more significant when it concerns educational credentials, stressing that questions surrounding foundational education, including primary and secondary schooling, should not remain unresolved or be addressed principally through legal proceedings.

“Nigerians deserve clear, credible, and verifiable explanations, especially when such had been submitted in the past,” Obi stated.

The former Anambra State governor also expressed concern about the example such conduct could set for the country’s younger generation, particularly the more than 30 million Nigerians currently in school.

He said the highest office in the land should exemplify integrity, accountability, transparency and ethical leadership.

Obi noted that an imperfect past was part of the human condition, but maintained that what mattered was the willingness to confront it with humility and honesty, apologise where necessary, make amends and, when circumstances demand, place the interests of the nation above personal ambition.

He questioned when Nigeria’s political class would fully appreciate that individual ambitions are temporary, while the nation endures.

“When will our political class fully appreciate that individual ambitions are temporary, while the nation endures?” he asked.

Obi further observed that although the Presidency is an office held for only a season, the moral standards established by those who occupy it could influence generations.

He reaffirmed his loyalty to Nigeria, stating that he had never sought citizenship of another country, even when doing so became fashionable.

“Nigeria is greater than any one person, and the integrity of the Republic must always come before the interests of the individual,” he said.

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Tinubu, APC governors move to resolve campaign list crisis

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President Bola Tinubu on Thursday held closed door talks with governors elected on the platform of the All Progressives Congress, otherwise known as the Progressives Governors‘ Forum, at the Aso Rock Presidential Villa, Abuja.

Thursday’s meeting is the latest in a back-to-back series of engagements with governors and top chieftains of the party at Aso Rock to resolve the crisis trailing the controversial Presidential Campaign Council list released by the party last Saturday, August 23, 2026.

The governors marched to the President’s office shortly before 4:00pm on Thursday, after emerging from a separate session of the National Economic Council chaired by Vice President Kashim Shettima.

The consultations, which began since Wednesday, were aimed at reviewing and reworking the PCC list which has continued to generate controversy since its release.

The ruling party had faced severe backlash over the inclusion of some controversial party chieftains, particularly those currently facing corruption charges.

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It was also alleged that some key sections of the party were not carried along in the drafting of the PCC list.

Multiple party sources, who spoke with The PUNCH on Thursday, said the meeting, which initially held from around 4pm to 11pm on Wednesday, could not be concluded.

Consequently, the meeting continued on Thursday after the regular NEC meeting.

As of press time on Thursday, The PUNCH could not confirm the extent of the changes made to the list.

However, sources close to the APC governors and party heavyweights said the list had been reviewed.

One of the sources said the initial list had been deleted from the party’s X handle and that a new list would be posted as soon as the President approves the deliberations at the meeting and the proposed changes.

“The list is part of the main agenda of the meeting. You can notice that the other controversial list has been deleted from the Twitter handle of the party,” a top source close to the APC governors said.

Also speaking on the list, another top party chieftain said, “Can you believe that the party was not carried along in the formation of the list? The President’s Special Adviser on Political Matters and a few persons in the Presidency came up with the list.

“You can see the backlash that has trailed it. The President is handling the matter, and it is believed that some changes will be made after the two-day meeting.”

Meanwhile, further findings by our correspondent showed that the party would double down on social intervention programmes ahead of the January 2027 poll.

It was learnt that this was part of the ruling party’s plan to reach out to Nigerians and ameliorate the suffering of the masses.

The APC had recently released the complete membership list of its 2027 Presidential Campaign Council.

As earlier reported, President Bola Tinubu will chair the council, with Vice President Kashim Shettima and APC National Chairman, Professor Nentawe Yilwatda, serving as vice chairmen I and II respectively. Senator Abdulaziz Yari was named Director-General, while Imo State Governor, Hope Uzodimma, will serve as Secretary.

The expanded list, numbering 223 entries, adds directorates covering finance, extractive industries, education, manufacturing and MSMEs, support group coordination, faith-based mobilisation, protocol, labour union relations, special duties, stakeholders’ mobilisation, community support, digital operations, grassroots engagement, and welfare.

Following series of controversies that trailed the list, the Special Adviser to the President on Media and Public Communication, Sunday Dare, said later that adjustments would made to the list where necessary.

Dare said the list remained valid because the campaign structure was not yet complete, with several subcommittees still to be constituted.

“As it is with every other list, there’s a room for subcommittees. Those subcommittees have not been formed, and so many other names will come into that subcommittee,” he said.

Dare also referred to a statement issued by the APC, insisting that the party had not withdrawn the list.

“But of course, there will be adjustments. The list is not cast in stone, just like every other list,” he added.

Asked whether the expected changes amounted to a review of the council, Dare drew a distinction between the two terms, saying the changes would only be made where necessary.

“Not a review, just adjustments where necessary,” he said.

Explaining the distinction, Dare said a review would amount to a broader overhaul of the existing structure.

“Review is wholesale, this is not wholesale,” Dare said.

He added that the planned subcommittees would provide room for more party members and political stakeholders to be accommodated within the campaign structure. (PUNCH)

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