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2023: Obi leads Tinubu, Atiku, Kwankwaso in fresh Anap Poll

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For the second time in four months, another poll concluded in December has shown that the 2023 presidential candidate of the Labour Party, LP, Peter Obi is ahead of the three other frontline candidates.

The poll conducted by NOI Polls Limited and commissioned by Anap Foundation showed that Obi leads Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress, APC; the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar and the New Nigeria People’s Party, NNPP, candidate, Rabiu Kwankwaso.

The Anap Foundation President, Atedo Peterside revealed this known while speaking during a live appearance on Channels Television’s Politics Today programme on Wednesday.

He said the election has moved past a three-horse race, adding that an earlier poll released in September, was a four-horse race.

Peterside said Obi has 23 percent, Tinubu scored 13, Atiku got 10 and Kwankwaso polled 2 percent in the fresh poll released in December.

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His words, “Nobody has gained or lost more than 2, 3 percent. I don’t know whether that is good news or bad news but it is as if nothing has happened fundamentally, no significant shift.”

He further said that mobile phones were the instruments used to conduct the poll because of increased mobile phone penetration in the country, pointing out that a large percentage of people are undecided.

Peterside also noted that the interest level in the next general elections was driven by economic challenges plaguing the nation including, poverty, insecurity, among others, adding further that the appetite of the youths in this election is high and carpeted candidates who have dodged presidential debates.

Anap Foundation had released a similar poll in September in which Obi also led the other 17 candidates in the race for Aso Rock’s top job in 2023.

Peterside’s statement read;

Peter Obi consolidates lead in a Fragmented Presidential Race

December 21, 2022

Ahead of the forthcoming 2023 Presidential elections, a recent nationwide opinion poll commissioned by Anap Foundation and conducted by NOI Polls Limited was concluded in early December 2022. The Poll revealed a significant lead by Mr. Peter Obi of the Labour Party, LP, with Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress, APC, and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) both trailing him. Dr. Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party, NNPP, emerged as the lone outsider.
The results showed a significant lead for Mr. Peter Obi with 23% of voters proposing to vote for him if the presidential election were to be conducted today; and 13% proposing to vote for Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu who fell in second place. Alhaji Abubakar Atiku was third with 10% and Dr. Rabiu Kwankwaso was a distant fourth with 2% of voters proposing to vote for him.
Mr. Peter Obi’s 10%-point lead at this stage is significant, but not sufficient to separate him from a leading pack of candidates scoring 13%, 10% and 2%.
Undecided voters and those who prefer not to reveal their preferred candidate add up to a whopping 29% and 23% respectively. The gender split of undecided voters shows that 38% of women are undecided versus 21% of male voters.
Poll Question: Suppose the presidential election is being conducted today, who are you likely to vote for?
Poll Question: Suppose the presidential election is being conducted today, who are you likely to vote for?
Total (%) Distribution across Geo-Political Zones

Poll Ranking

North    Central North East North West South East South South South West
Peter Obi, LP,  23% 24% 8% 11% 50% 46% 15% 1st

Bola Tinubu, APC, 13% 9% 15% 15% 1% 9% 22% 2nd

Atiku Abubakar, PDP, 10% 8% 23% 17% 1% 3% 4% 3rd

Rabiu Kwankwaso, NNPP, 2% 1% 2% 6% 0% 1% 1% 4th

Undecided 29% 35% 38% 32% 25% 26% 20%
Refused 23% 23% 14% 19% 23% 15% 38%

Total 100%

Source: NOIPolls – December 2022

The percentage of registered voters and/or voters with their permanent voter’s card is as follows in each of the zones – 90% in the North East, 89% in the South West and 88% in the South South. The lowest voter registration percentages were recorded in the North Central with 87%, North West with 86% and the South East with 84%.

The chart below captures the overall position of the four (4) leading Presidential candidates by aggregating and weighing their scores in proportion to population totals across Nigeria based on the findings of our September and December 2022 polls. The percentage of voters refusing to disclose the name of their preferred candidate has increased sharply from 15% to 23% making it difficult for us to ascertain if any of the candidates has picked up significant momentum between September and December 2023.

When asked if religion would affect the choice of respondents, data gathered showed that 15% of the respondents replied in the affirmative to religion influencing their choice of candidates but 81% on the other hand, responded that their choices were not being influenced by religion; in the same vein, 10% responded in the affirmative to ethnicity affecting their choice of candidates while 86% responded that their choices were not influenced by ethnicity.

Furthermore, the data summarizes the top five reasons why voters are more inclined to vote in the forthcoming elections, these include: – The need to tackle insecurity (35%), Economy, 26%, Unemployment, 10%, Poverty alleviation, 7%, and Education, 6%.

71% of the respondents think the Presidential candidates should compulsorily participate in a televised debate and/or town hall meeting, with the debates/town hall meetings spanning across topics like their manifestos, competence checks, and personality recognition amongst others.

It is worthy of note that 73% of those aged 18-25, 82% of those aged 26-35, 85% of those aged 36-45, 86% of those aged 46-60 and 82% of those aged 61+ responded that they would definitely vote in the coming elections. The age groups that expressed the greatest willingness to vote were those between 36-45 and 46-60 years.

The Poll shows that almost 8 in 10 registered voters are absolutely certain that they would be voting in the next presidential election. If they stay committed then we could witness a huge turnout in the February Presidential 2023 elections.

While this Poll result shows some significant trends, it is key to note that the battle ahead lies in the hands of the undecided/swing voters as they would ultimately decide which candidate takes the lead to emerge as the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in the 2023 presidential elections.

This result was polled from 1,000 respondents; after which Anap Foundation conducted similar polls with a 2,000 and 3,000 respondents sample size, the difference in the results was not significant.

The high percentage of voters (38%) who refused to disclose their preferred candidate in the South West Zone is worrisome. For other zones, those who refused to disclose their preferred candidate ranged from 14-23%. At 38%, the South West figure is an outlier. Historically, an exceedingly high percentage of voters refusing to disclose their preferred candidate is usually associated with perceptions/fears (real or imagined) of possible voter intimidation within a geographical area.

In summary, our December 2022 Polls are inconclusive in terms of establishing a clear winner as the undecided voters, combined with the voters who refused to disclose their preferences, are enough to turn the tables.
However, Anap Foundation has concluded that the trends are clear enough to establish the front-runners and so our subsequent polls will continue to concentrate on the 4 leading candidates only.

Signed:Atedo N A Peterside CON,
President & Founder, Anap Foundation

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2027: ‘Peter Obi must not die’ — Igbo Group warns of catastrophic consequences

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Peter Obi, Presidential candidate of NDC
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Njiko Igbo Forum, an affiliate of Ohanaeze Ndigbo, has issued a stern warning ahead of the 2027 general elections, cautioning that it will be catastrophic should anything happen to Mr Peter Obi.

It could be recalled that Obi, on Wednesday, raised the alarm that his life was under threat.

The presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress, NDC, raised fears that he may not be alive in 2027 to be part of the election.

However, in a statement issued on Thursday, Rev Dr Okechukwu Christopher Obioha, Leader, Njiko Igbo Forum Nigeria, he warned that should anything happen to Obi or he was not in the ballot, the reaction and result would be very catastrophic.

Obioha said the caution was part of the decision taken during an emergency meeting held today, Thursday, in Enugu.

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The Forum said, “That we have seen the viral video made by His Excellency, Mr Peter Gregory Obi, speaking on a number of issues, he expressed serious concern that his life is in danger.

“For him to have gone to the extent of saying he might not be alive before the 16th of January 2027, speaks volumes both in our polity and in the country at large.

“We have seen him in the past, spoke about the federal government trying to frustrate and targeting him not to be in the ballot.

“We have also observed over a period of time that the presidency or the federal government led by President Tinubu does not want Peter Obi to be in the ballot.”

While drawing the attention of the Presidency, Nigeria and the world to those allegations, Njiko Igbo Forum declared that “if anything happens to Mr Peter Gregory Obi or finally his name is not in the ballot for the 16th January, 2026 presidential election, the reaction and result will be very catastrophic and may adversely affect the continued unity in diversity of this country Nigeria.”

It further stated that the Igbo had been very quiet, pushed to the wall, segregated against, marked out everywhere, chased about and even tried to take their possessions.

Njiko Igbo Forum cautioned that keeping quiet does not mean the Igbo are cowards.

It said the ruling government should not forget that for any democracy to thrive, there must be a viral opposition in the polity.

“There is no reason, for what we have seen in the process or polity in trailing Peter Obi and going to an extent of chasing him through all the political parties and now wanting to kill him.

“This outcry by Mr Peter Gregory Obi, must not be taken lightly and request as a matter of urgent National importance, that an urgent investigation panel be constituted to verify Mr Peter Obi’s allegations.

“We are strongly stating again that, nothing should happen to Mr Peter Gregory Obi.

“Yes, Chief Awolowo said, before Nigeria he was of the Yoruba Nation. The same way we are saying before Peter Obi is of Nigeria, he is of the Igbo.

“Mr Peter Gregory Obi will live and become the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in 2027,” it declared.

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I might not be alive to contest in 2027 – Peter Obi raises alarm over threats to his life

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Peter Obi not arrested by DSS – Aide
Peter Obi, NDC Presidential candidate
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Presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress, NDC, Mr Peter Obi, has cried out over alleged threat to his life.

Obi, who is a major contender ahead of the 2027 presidential election said he might not be alive to participate in the election.

According to him, there is obvious attack on everything that had to do with him, including his life.

The former Anambra state governor made the allegation during a podcast with Chude Jideonwo.

“The way they are going now I might not be alive,  I’m telling you every single thing I do for a living this government is frustrating it deliberately so.

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“Everything, so there’s even a possibility if they have opportunity I will not be alive. I get frustrations every day because you do things that may think it may be normal it is not normal they won’t come directly and say oh we are doing this but you could see their hand in eventually everything.

“The government is attacking everybody, I am being attacked personally even to provide me with things I am entitled to, not at all,” he said.

He recalled how his vehicle was clamped down at the airport while he was right there, whereas other vehicles lined up on the same spot were untouched.

Obi further that stated that even close associates were beginning to avoid him over fear of government clampdown.

He disclosed that friends now send him invitations for occasions but tell him not to bother attending.

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Voters reward performance as APC sweeps Ekiti, dominates Bye-Elections nationwide — Yilwatda

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Professor Nentawe Yilwatda
Professor Nentawe Yilwatda
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The National Chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Prof. Nentawe Yilwatda, has described the resounding victory of Governor Biodun Oyebanji in the Ekiti State Governorship Election and the party’s impressive performance in the recent bye-elections across the country as a clear vote of confidence in the APC, the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, and the ongoing reforms being implemented to reposition Nigeria for sustainable growth and prosperity.

Prof. Yilwatda stated that the outcome of the elections demonstrates that Nigerians are able to distinguish between temporary economic challenges associated with reforms and the long-term benefits of responsible governance, economic restructuring, infrastructure development and institutional renewal being championed by the APC at both federal and state levels.

According to the National Chairman:

“The overwhelming victory recorded by our great party in Ekiti State and our remarkable success in the bye-elections across the country represent a powerful endorsement of the APC’s governance philosophy. These results affirm that Nigerians appreciate leadership that prioritises development, accountability, stability and the welfare of the people.”

“The people of Ekiti State have once again demonstrated that performance remains the most potent campaign message in democratic politics. Governor Biodun Oyebanji’s resounding re-election is a reward for visionary leadership, inclusive governance, prudent management of resources and visible developmental achievements across the state.”

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Governor Oyebanji of the APC was declared winner of the Ekiti Governorship Election after securing a commanding victory across the state, reaffirming the confidence of the electorate in his administration and the APC’s developmental agenda. The party also recorded significant victories in five of the six bye-elections conducted across various states of the federation.

Prof. Yilwatda, in a statement signed by his Special Adviser on Media and Information Strategy, Abimbola Tooki, noted that the Ekiti result has further strengthened the APC’s narrative that performance-based governance remains electorally rewarding, even amid difficult economic transitions.

“The Ekiti election has become a national reference point. It confirms that when governments deliver tangible results in infrastructure, education, healthcare, agriculture, youth empowerment, security and social development, citizens respond with renewed trust and overwhelming electoral support.”

“This victory sends a clear message that governance, not propaganda, remains the most effective route to political legitimacy. The people of Ekiti have spoken loudly and clearly in support of continuity, stability and progress.”

The APC National Chairman described Ekiti State under Governor Oyebanji as one of the most compelling governance success stories in contemporary Nigeria, citing sustained investments in road infrastructure, rural development, human capital advancement, healthcare delivery, agricultural productivity, workers’ welfare and ease of doing business.

He said the administration has successfully built broad-based political consensus while maintaining a strong focus on development outcomes, thereby creating an environment of stability and accelerated progress.

“Ekiti today stands as a shining example of how APC governments are translating public trust into measurable development outcomes. The state’s progress under Governor Oyebanji provides a practical demonstration of our party’s commitment to people-centred governance.”

Prof. Yilwatda further stated that the election outcomes should be viewed within the broader national context of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s reform agenda, which is gradually laying the foundation for a more resilient, productive and globally competitive Nigerian economy.

“Despite inheriting deep structural challenges, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has demonstrated courage and vision in implementing reforms that are necessary for Nigeria’s long-term prosperity. The confidence reposed in our party by voters across the country indicates growing public understanding and appreciation of these reforms and their future benefits.”
It
“These victories are therefore not only electoral successes; they are validations of a governing philosophy anchored on bold leadership, responsible decision-making and sustainable development.”

The National Chairman congratulated President Tinubu, Governor Biodun Oyebanji, APC leaders and members in Ekiti State and across the federation, as well as all candidates who emerged victorious in the bye-elections.

He also commended the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), security agencies and the people of Ekiti State for the peaceful conduct of the election.

Prof. Yilwatda assured Nigerians that the APC would remain focused on delivering good governance at all levels and deepening democratic dividends for citizens across the country.

“Our message to Nigerians is simple: we have heard your voices, we appreciate your confidence and we shall continue to justify the trust you have placed in our party through impactful governance, economic renewal and inclusive national development.”

“The APC remains committed to building a stronger, more prosperous and more united Nigeria. The victories recorded in Ekiti and the bye-elections reinforce our resolve to work even harder in service to the Nigerian people.”

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