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Obi most popular choice among Nigerians, Kwakol Poll reveals

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Peter Gregory Obi, the presidential candidate of the Labour Party, is the most popular candidate among the major contenders seeking to become the nation’s next president, according to a new poll conducted by the Kwakol Research Institute.

The poll, which took a different approach to collecting valuable data and providing reasonable conclusions, arrived at the conclusion that the Labour Party presidential candidate was the ideal choice for more than 50 percent of respondents, including women, the unemployed, civil servants, private sector participants, and students, especially those in tertiary institutions.

Unlike most polls, Kwakol gathered most of its responses from rural dwellers. “It is important to note that, unlike the majority of the polls in Nigeria, we polled more registered voters in rural Nigeria than registered voters in semi-urban Nigeria and urban Nigeria, respectively,” it stated.

The research agency also used several parameters to arrive at its conclusion—for example, the issue of income classification, educational background, work status, and sex were factors used in arriving at its conclusion.

In summation, 52.80 percent of respondents said that they would vote for the Labour Party, 18.9 percent said they would vote for the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), 15.6 percent said they would vote for the All Progressives Congress, and 10.4 percent said that they would vote for the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP).

It must be pertinent to note that respondents in the exercise cut across the six geopolitical zones and income backgrounds. The spread of the poll had 45 percent of respondents residing in rural areas, while semi-urban areas narrowly edged out urban respondents by a point, with them taking up 28 percent and 27 percent, respectively.

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A further breakdown showed that the agency agreed with popular census figures of the numerical strength of the Northwest and Southwest geopolitical zones, with the spread resulting in 25.27 percent and 19 percent, respectively, while the Southsouth and Southeast ended up with 13.44 percent and 12.13 percent, respectively.

Obi gained more acceptance with young people who fell within the age bracket of 18 to 69, with 56 percent of those within the age range of 35 to 49 years and with valid Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs) saying that they would vote for him at the February 25 election.

Across the occupational background divide, over 70 percent of respondents working in the private sector said that they would vote for Obi and his Labour Party. This performance was closely followed by civil servants, whose 66.9 percent of respondents said that they would vote for him as president in next week’s Saturday election. 53.4 percent of the students said they would vote for him. This was closely followed by 52.3 percent of unemployed respondents who said they would vote for him.

Another interesting revelation from the Kwakol poll revealed that over 67 percent of respondents earning above N200,000 said that they would vote for Obi. This result was closely followed by the 64.5 percent of respondents who earned between N101,000 and N200,000 and said that they would vote for Obi.

The poll also revealed that over 53 percent of female respondents said that they would vote for Obi, a figure that is more than the APC, PDP, and NNPP figures combined. Despite a slight gender gap, 52.61 percent of male respondents said they would vote for the Obi.

Another parameter used in the analysis revealed that an overwhelming 64.41 percent of respondents with at most a tertiary education said that they would vote for Obi and his Labour Party in next week’s presidential election. The least surprising finding was that 30 percent of uneducated respondents said they would vote for Obi and the Labour Party in next week’s presidential election.

Kwakol provided two scenarios that might be exceptions to the poll results. First, it was agreed that though the sample size of 1,000 respondents wasn’t representative enough, Obi wasn’t totally certain of victory in the next Saturday’s presidential election. Why you may ask?

Elections in Nigeria have always been “characterized by electoral violence, terror violence, sectionalist violence, and voter intimidation,” it stated.

For the first scenario, it was predicted that in the event of violent attacks in the North Central geopolitical zone, voter turnout would decline significantly. “A situation that would have an impact on the number of votes available for the Labour Party and the NNPP,” it said. This leaves the two major political parties to slug it out.

In the north-east geopolitical region, “if an outburst of violence by non-state actors occurs in the northwest, this will significantly reduce voter turnout, and the only parties to benefit from traditional voting patterns will be the PDP and the APC, whose strongholds are in the geopolitical zone.”

For the Northwest, in the event of a breakout of violence, “all the frontline political parties will be adversely affected, but the APC will benefit from the 2019 voting patterns despite a significantly lower voter turnout.”

For the South East geopolitical zone, it feared that concerns from the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) militant wing—the Eastern Security Network (ESN)—could reduce the numerical chance of Obi, while in the South-South zone, Kwakol said that “we do not expect to see an outburst of violence from the militants in the South-South geopolitical zone, but we suspect that hired political thuggery could be a recurring theme during the election, particularly in River and Delta States. We think that this will likely be due to specific interests for the minimum 25 election of votes cast in the two respective states. We also suspect that pro-LP strongholds in the region might be targeted in order to heighten voter anxiety, therefore dampening voter turnout. The LP, more specifically, will rue this probable outcome.

For the South West region, it was argued that if political thuggery erupted, the APC would benefit, reducing the Labour Party’s chances significantly.

In essence, it predicted that “if either of the six scenarios below of electoral violence plays out in any of the geopolitical zones, the probable political party to benefit is the APC, most likely due to a repeat of the 2019 voting patterns that were favorable to the party in hindsight.”

“In the eventuality that the presidency has to be decided by a run-off presidential election round between the two parties with the greatest number of votes cast in their respective favor, and if these two parties happen to be the APC and LP, we predict a very close race with the APC as the eventual winner.

“The APC’s incumbency, reliable voting patterns in its strongholds in the northwest and southwest, and the further polarization of the electorate along time-honored ethnoreligious lines in the midst of reeling voter fatigue will be of advantage to the APC,” it stated.

However, in the event of a likely run-off between the PDP and the Labour Party, Kwakol predicts that while the PDP will be adversely affected by the expected low voter turnout in the Northwest and while the Southwest will back the LP instead of the PDP, it will not be enough for the LP. The PDP will benefit from Nigeria’s time-honored voting patterns along ethnoreligious and sectionalist lines, where the proportion of registered voters across the north will be of utmost importance.

In the event of a likely APC-PDP runoff, “the PDP will benefit from a section of the electorate that is disgruntled with the APC’s same-religion candidate pairing, especially in the south-south and southeast.”

“The PDP will also benefit from a section of the LP strongholds in the south-south and the southeast. The APC will maintain its strongholds in the northwest and the southwest albeit with a reeling voter fatigue. This leaves the key battleground geopolitical zones in the context of this run-off pairing to be the northeast and the north-central zones. Thus, we predict that the PDP will just about edge out the APC in this very tight race,” it predicted.

It created another permutation, stating that in the event of a last-minute alliance between “the APC and the NNPP with the NNPP dropping out of the race, we predict that the APC will be able to gain more support from the NNPP stronghold in the north and northeast, and thus, it is likely that the APC will win the election in the first round.”

In its final permutation, Kwakol argued that “if there is a last-minute alliance between the PDP and the NNPP with the NNPP dropping out of the race, we predict that the PDP will be able to gain more support from the NNPP strongholds in the Northwest. However, we cannot conclude if this is enough for the PDP to win the presidential election in the first round.”

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Atiku’s ADC Campaign Council Faults Tinubu’s 90-Day Relief Plan, Calls It ‘Election Bait’

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The presidential campaign council of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar under the African Democratic Congress (ADC) has criticised President Bola Tinubu’s 90-day cost-of-living relief plan, describing it as “election bait” and demanding details of how the proposed measures would ease the economic hardship facing Nigerians.

The council’s Director of Strategic Communication, Phrank Shaibu, stated this on Friday during a world press conference at the party’s secretariat, questioning the timing of the initiative and the government’s ability to deliver meaningful relief within the proposed timeframe.

Shaibu argued that with the presidential election reportedly 86 days away, the 90-day timeline would extend beyond the poll, raising concerns that Nigerians might not experience the promised benefits before deciding whether to renew the administration’s mandate.

“After three and a half years of hardship, this government is asking families to carry another promise into the polling booth and wait for relief until the votes are counted,” he said.

He urged Nigerians to judge the Tinubu administration by its economic performance and the impact of its policies on household incomes rather than promises announced ahead of the election.

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The Federal Government’s 90-day plan identifies five priority areas: food affordability, tax harmonisation, completion of key projects, removal of investment bottlenecks and household support.

However, Shaibu maintained that these issues had remained unresolved for too long, citing rising food and transportation costs, growing pressure on manufacturers and the closure of businesses.

He also criticised the government’s handling of petrol subsidy removal, arguing that adequate measures to protect vulnerable households should have accompanied the policy from the outset.

According to him, Nigerians were made to bear the immediate economic consequences of the reform while being asked to wait for its promised benefits.

“A government cannot put a 90-day deadline on hunger, the cost-of-living crisis and insecurity and call it an economic policy,” he said.

ADC Questions Tinubu’s Planned Kaduna Visit

The ADC campaign official also questioned President Tinubu’s planned visit to Kaduna State to launch his re-election campaign, citing concerns over insecurity, civilian casualties from military airstrikes, abductions and natural disasters in the state.

He recalled the December 3, 2023, military drone strike on civilians attending a Maulud celebration in Tudun Biri, which killed at least 85 people.

He also referenced a reported military airstrike in Giwa in September 2024 that allegedly killed at least 24 civilians, as well as reported kidnappings in Kachia in September 2025 and the impact of storms and flooding on communities across the state.

Shaibu challenged the President to explain what his administration had done to support victims of the incidents and what concrete measures had been introduced to protect residents from abductions and other security threats.

Demands Transparency Over NNPC Fuel Discount

Shaibu also questioned the effectiveness of a fuel discount promotion reportedly introduced by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) on October 1.

He claimed that he visited NNPC retail outlets but was told that no discount was available, adding that he subsequently purchased petrol at ₦1,405 per litre.

He challenged the company to publish comprehensive details of the promotion, including the number of motorists who benefited, the participating stations and the volume of petrol sold at discounted prices.

The ADC official further questioned the reach of a reported ₦66-per-litre discount, arguing that the impact of the initiative needed to be assessed against the number of NNPC retail outlets and the country’s wider fuel retail network.

Demands Details of Five-Point Relief Plan

On food affordability, Shaibu asked the government to explain which production and distribution costs would be reduced for farmers, transporters and traders, when consumers should expect lower market prices and how the reductions would be sustained beyond the 90-day period.

He also demanded the publication of the proposed tax harmonisation measures, a list of projects scheduled for completion within the timeframe and details of the government’s plans to remove obstacles affecting manufacturers and investors.

Regarding household support, Shaibu called for disclosure of the eligibility criteria, payment amounts, commencement dates, funding arrangements and plans for beneficiaries after the initiative expires.

He argued that without clear implementation details and measurable targets, the plan risked becoming another government announcement without demonstrable benefits for ordinary Nigerians.

Raises Concerns Over ‘Arise for Tinubu 2027’ Registration Form

Shaibu also raised concerns about a registration form circulating under the name “Arise for Tinubu 2027”, which he said requested voter identification, bank details and phone numbers.

He demanded clarification on the identity of those collecting the information, the purpose of the exercise and whether it was connected to the proposed household support programme.

He insisted that Nigerians should not be required to surrender sensitive personal information to a political organisation as a condition for accessing public relief.

He further urged the government to explain what safeguards would prevent the misuse of personal data or the diversion of public assistance for political purposes.

Atiku’s Alternative Economic Position

Shaibu said Atiku had pledged to make Nigeria more affordable through disciplined public spending, targeted household assistance, lower production and transportation costs for essential goods, and policies designed to help local manufacturers expand and create jobs.

He maintained that the success of economic policies should be measured by improvements in household purchasing power, reduced living costs and increased economic opportunities, rather than official announcements.

The ADC campaign council urged Nigerians to demand verifiable evidence that the proposed relief measures would reach intended beneficiaries, deliver measurable improvements and remain effective beyond the election period.

 

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Ebonyi Council Restricts Political Gatherings Without Prior Approval

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The Chairman of Ezza South Local Government Area in Ebonyi State, Hon. Chinedu Mkpuma, has directed political parties and groups to obtain prior approval from his office before organising political campaigns and gatherings in the area.

The directive follows a recent security breach in Amaezekwe community amid growing concerns over political violence ahead of the 2027 general elections.

In a statement made available to journalists in Abakaliki, Mkpuma expressed concern over the security situation, saying the measure was necessary to protect lives and property, maintain public order and prevent further security breaches.

While acknowledging the constitutional rights of citizens to freedom of association and peaceful assembly, the chairman insisted that all political gatherings within the local government area must receive prior approval from his office.

He warned that anyone who violates the directive would face appropriate action in accordance with the law.

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Meanwhile, the Labour Party governorship candidate, Eze Oko, has condemned the reported killings and alleged attacks on opposition parties in the state, calling on political leaders to end violence and intimidation.

Oko questioned the alleged targeting of opposition members and urged youths to resist attempts by politicians to use them as instruments of violence.

He called for a level playing field for all political parties and candidates, insisting that political competition should be based on ideas, manifestos and records of performance rather than violence.

The Labour Party candidate also cautioned political leaders against making inflammatory statements capable of escalating tensions during the electioneering period.

He urged candidates seeking re-election to allow their achievements to speak for them rather than allegedly engaging political thugs to intimidate opponents.

Oko further appealed to youths to reject political thuggery and violence, while extending his condolences to the families of those reportedly killed in the incident.

The development comes as political activities gather momentum ahead of the 2027 general elections, amid renewed calls for security agencies to investigate reported attacks and ensure that all political parties can operate without intimidation.

The directive applies specifically to Ezza South Local Government Area. The information available does not establish that the Ebonyi State Government has imposed a statewide ban on political campaigns and gatherings.

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2027: Atiku, Obi, Duke, Others in Talks on Single Opposition Candidate – Coalition

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Opposition leaders under the G-100 coalition have said discussions among major presidential hopefuls on the emergence of a consensus candidate to challenge President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 general election are progressing steadily.

The coalition said leading opposition candidates had begun engaging one another on possible cooperation ahead of the polls, expressing optimism that a common candidate would emerge from the ongoing negotiations.

The group disclosed this in Abuja on Thursday during the inauguration of its legal and media committees, established to provide the necessary framework for inter-party negotiations and collaboration.

The parties participating in the initiative are the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), Peoples Redemption Party (PRP), Social Democratic Party (SDP), Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Allied Peoples Movement (APM).

Among the presidential hopefuls being considered are former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar of the ADC, Peter Obi of the NDC, Donald Duke of the PRP and Adewale Adebayo of the SDP.

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National chairmen of the participating parties and other representatives attended the meeting.

Speaking at the event, SDP National Chairman, Prof. Sadiq Umar Abubakar Gombe, who inaugurated the committees, said the coalition was putting in place the structures required to facilitate negotiations and cooperation among the parties.

He disclosed that party leaders had been engaging presidential aspirants, adding that the candidates themselves had also commenced discussions on possible collaboration before the end of the year.

“Our ambition is to present a candidate that can defeat APC and form the next government. And we’re making very good progress,” Gombe said.

He described the feedback from the participating parties and presidential hopefuls as encouraging, expressing confidence that outstanding issues would be resolved before the 2027 general election.

Although the coalition has yet to disclose the formula for selecting its preferred candidate, Gombe said it was moving beyond political declarations to establish a structured process for achieving its objective.

“Today, we take a deliberate step from intention to structure. The work of this coalition will be judged not only by the strength of our convictions, but by the discipline, precision and unity with which we carry it out,” he said.

Legal Committee to Address Electoral and Constitutional Issues

Gombe described the legal committee as a critical component of the coalition’s efforts to establish a workable and legally sound framework for cooperation.

The committee, comprising national legal advisers of the participating parties and other senior legal representatives, is expected to review outstanding legal disputes involving the parties, examine the actions of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in relation to relevant Supreme Court judgments and advise the coalition on available legal options.

It will also scrutinise working-group documents and negotiated agreements, identify potential legal risks, recommend safeguards and establish mechanisms for resolving disputes before any coalition agreement is adopted.

Gombe warned that overlooking critical legal provisions could jeopardise the entire process.

“We cannot afford surprises. A single overlooked clause can undo months of honest negotiation,” he said, urging members to demonstrate diligence, transparency and independent judgment.

Media Committee to Coordinate Coalition’s Messaging

The media and publicity committee, comprising national publicity secretaries and spokespersons of the presidential campaign councils of the participating parties, will coordinate the coalition’s public communication strategy.

Its responsibilities include harmonising public statements, coordinating media engagements and announcements, and ensuring consistency in the coalition’s positions.

The committee is also expected to establish procedures for authorising joint statements and consult the legal committee on sensitive constitutional and legal issues.

Gombe urged members of both committees to operate within their respective mandates, coordinate their activities and submit regular reports to the coalition’s leadership.

Coalition Cites Economic Hardship, Insecurity

The SDP chairman said the coalition was responding to the need for credible political alternatives amid the country’s economic and security challenges.

He noted that insecurity, rising living costs, unemployment and declining purchasing power continued to affect Nigerians, adding that the performance of the Tinubu administration should be assessed against its record and policy outcomes.

According to him, persistent policy failures, declining public confidence, institutional weaknesses and inadequate accountability could become entrenched if the concerns of citizens were not adequately addressed.

“Any decision concerning the continuation of the present administration under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu must be assessed against its record, its policy outcomes, and its capacity to address the country’s pressing problems,” he said.

Gombe maintained that no administration was above public scrutiny, stressing that political office should be regarded as a responsibility entrusted by the electorate rather than an entitlement.

He said the opposition was committed to presenting credible alternatives, defending constitutional democracy and ensuring that political debates remained peaceful, informed and focused on the national interest.

“The strength of this coalition will not be measured by the number of parties represented here, but by our unity of purpose, discipline, credibility, and commitment to the Nigerian people,” he said.

He urged the participating parties to place national interest above personal ambitions and partisan differences, warning that the coalition’s success would depend on their ability to work together towards a common objective.

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