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Nigeria facing existential threat, World Bank warns
In light of Nigeria’s dwindling revenue, the continued payment of trillions of naira on fuel subsidy by the government and the attendant economic challenges, the World Bank on Wednesday raised the alarm that the country might be facing an existential threat.
The international financial institution warned that if the country failed to optimise its tax system and focus on other areas to boost its revenue, the already low revenue would continue to drop. It noted that despite the rise in the price of oil in the international market, Nigeria had not reaped the benefits because of the huge amount spent on fuel subsidy.
The Senior Public Sector Specialist, Domestic Resource Mobilisation, at the World Bank, Mr Rajul Awasthi, said these at a virtual pre-summit, with the theme ‘Critical Tax Reforms for Shared Prosperity’, organised by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group on Wednesday. He insisted Nigeria would have to eliminate the subsidy regime eventually.
After the Federal Government earmarked about N4tn for subsidy payment in 2022, the Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning, Mrs Zainab Ahmed, said recently that government might spend a whopping N6.72tn as fuel subsidy in 2023 or pay N3.36tn up to mid-2023 if the subsidy regime would was to end in May 2023.
Also, the minister had consistently said the nation was battling with revenue problems, which had compelled the government to keep borrowing. The debt stock had risen to N41.6tn in the first quarter of 2022 with projections that it could peak at N45tn by the end of the year. Nigeria is rated the fifth on the list of the World Bank’s debtors, with $11.7bn debt stock as of June 30, 2021.
The International Monetary Fund had in March projected that Nigeria might spend 93 per cent of its revenue on debt servicing in 2022, but the minister disclosed a few weeks ago that about 119 per cent of the country’s revenue was spent on debt servicing. This implied that government had to borrow to meet its debt financing obligations, a development many economists had described as disturbing and unsustainable.
The virtual event, anchored by the PwC’s Fiscal Policy Partner and Thematic Lead, NESG Fiscal Policy and Planning Thematic Group, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, was attended by several stakeholders, including the representative of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria and the Executive Secretary of the Joint Tax Board, Mrs Nana-Aisha Obomeghie.
Meanwhile, in a slide he shared during his presentation, which showed Nigeria’s Development Update, Awasthi explained that between 2015 and 2019, Nigeria’s non-oil revenues were among the lowest in the world and as a result the second lowest in spending, and that oil revenues were also falling even when oil prices were higher.
He stated, “Nigeria has the largest economy in Africa and the largest country in Africa by population, so it is critical to Africa’s progress. There is no doubt about that. But the government of Nigeria, from the public finance perspective, is really facing an existential threat. Let’s not downplay the situation. That is the actual reality.
Nigeria’s revenue
“Nigeria is 115th out of 115 countries in terms of the average revenue to Gross Domestic Product ratio. Despite the oil prices rising the way they have been, net oil and gas revenues have been coming down because of the tremendous impact of the subsidy.
“So, what is going to happen in 2022? The federation’s revenues are going to be significantly lower. They are already very low, and Nigeria is already the lowest in the world out of 115 large countries and this year, it’s really going to be lower than what it was in 2020 because of the debilitating impact of fuel subsidy.”
On the perennial low revenue from tax in Nigeria, a former Finance Minister and Ahmed’s predecessor, Mrs Kemi Adeosun, had in 2017 revealed that only 214 persons in Nigeria paid N20m and above as tax and that most active taxpayers in the country were people whose PAYE were deducted from source. She had also decried the low tax to GDP ratio at about six per cent, which she described as the lowest in the world and far below the 18 per cent average on the continent.
Speaking on how to get out of the woods, Awasthi stated that in the non-oil sector, Value Added Tax compliance gaps were immense and they needed to be breached as well as rationalise tax expenditures.
Citing the tax expenditure statement of the Budget Office in 2020, he said, “The VAT gap in 2019 was over N3.1tn whereas the collection was N1.2tn. Of that gap, about two-thirds, which is about N2tn, came from compliance gaps. That’s a serious issue that needs to be addressed. It’s because of this that we have a low tax base and a lot of people feel they are being overtaxed.”
He also stressed the need for technology deployment in tax administration and data sharing between the Federal Inland Revenue Service and the states’ Internal revenue services to boost the revenue from personal income tax. He also called for an increase in the tax levied on certain goods, like wine, cigarettes and beer.
He added, “Property taxes at the state and local government levels are also critical. Nigeria has a tremendous potential, with about 50 million households, taxable properties and there are many rich people who need to be paying property taxes. There is a tremendous opportunity there.
“Also, I think there is a huge opportunity to raise excise on goods like beer, wine, spirit and cigarettes. There is a very tiny tax that has been introduced on them and this could be higher. These are the kinds of things that across the world there is a consensus that these rates should be higher because they are supposed to attack and address negative externalities of these products.
“There is also a need to reform the fuel subsidy regime, moving towards its full elimination at least by 2024. Nigeria needs to roll back the PMC subsidies and adopt the free market price. This is critical for this country. There is also the need to improve revenue from cross-border transactions and other international tax measures.”
While calling for increased enlightenment of the taxpayers, which he said the World Bank was collaborating with the World Bank to achieve, he noted that tax laws needed to be modernised and strengthened for a better outcome.
He added, “Going forward, the approach to revenue mobilisation has to be more strategic. We need to be more strategic and it’s not just about taxing more, Nigeria needs to tax better. We need to review the collection system and not just about what to collect and from who. There have been discussions about how the tax system has to be progressive and efficient in terms of compliance and making sure we are targeting the right tax bases.”
In his submission, the Director-General of MAN, Mr Segun Ajayi-Kadiri, represented by the Director of Mr Oluwasegun Osidipe, said there was no doubt that the country needed money but that the government must exercise caution in introducing more taxes.
He tasked the government to expand the tax base, ensure the inclusion of more people in the informal sector and make the tax system progressive such that the rich would pay more than the poor.
MAN advises
He said, “MAN’s expectation is that, though we need more revenue, the tax system should be structured to take more resources from the rich than the poor. Also, more taxes should be targeted at ostentatious goods and luxury goods. Those who earn more income one way or the other should pay more.
“There is a need for us as a nation to sit at a table and agree that we need to develop a comprehensive and integrated framework that would facilitate the intentional movement of operators in the informal sector to the formal sector and that would make us bring in more revenue for the government through tax.
“Whether we like it or not, huge sums of money in transactions are taking place in the informal sector, and we need to integrate them into the tax system rather than overburden the already compliant companies. If you look at the gamut of taxes levied on companies, they are huge. There are over 12 and additional ones are still coming. There is a need for that framework.
“We need to widen the tax net rather than increasing the burden on existing taxpayers. We need to promote harmonisation of taxes and there is a need for more consultation among stakeholders. Nigeria is at a crossroads but all hands must be on deck, especially looking at Nigeria’s low tax to GDP ratio.”
Other participants at the event also demanded an improved tax system that would ensure that those outside the tax net were integrated into the net to avoid excessive burden on those in the net.
Commenting on the World Bank’s warning, an economist, Bismark Riwane, in an interview with The PUNCH, advised that the only way out of the economic crisis was to make people prosperous so that they will pay more taxes for the economy to grow.
“The Federal Government has come out clearly with the Gross Domestic Profit ratio. One is the number of taxes two is the effectiveness of the taxes. So the question is, are we collecting the taxes that are due, two are we collecting it efficiently and three, what are we using the tax revenues for? So there are questions there but to answer your question I do not agree with the World Bank that the best thing to do now is to start increasing taxes all over the places. The emphasis to me is to achieve growth, when there is growth companies will be doing well and people income increase and therefore the taxes people will pay become more.”
Also speaking, an Associate Professor at Pan-Atlantic University, Dr Olalekan Aworinde, said, “What the World Bank is proposing is what we call property right that has to do probably, it could be in terms of estate or building apartments that are owned by the rich. Well, there’s nothing wrong in that but my fear is that it could be a double taxation because if this is implemented at all, you know our local government always collect tenement rate and I know that also in Lagos State they are effective in terms of this collection.” (PUNCH)
The National Coordinator and Executive Director of the National Brands Development and Made in Nigeria Special Project Office, George Nwabueze, has denied the allegation of running a “fake agency” in the country.
Nwabueze, who spoke on Saturday, noted that he oversaw an office which was under the supervision of the Office of the Secretary to the Government of the Federation.
He noted that the office had been in existence for 16 years.
The Independent Corrupt Practices and other related offences Commission had on Friday said the President had ordered Nwabueze’s arrest for leading and promoting the outfit, which it tagged as a fake federal agency.
The ICPC said the accused was running it with the collaboration of senior public servants in the Office of the Secretary to the Government of the Federation.
But responding to our correspondent, the embattled executive director said, “Made in Nigeria Special Project Office is a project office in the OSGF. We don’t know where fake agency comes from. A programme that has been in the SGF’s office since 16 July 2010 was just discovered yesterday (Friday). After 16 years; Nigeria is a funny country.”
Nwabueze spoke while responding to our correspondent’s enquiries on LinkedIn, where he had earlier posted his appointment letter to rebuff ICPC’s claim of illegality.
The letter, dated October 3, 2025, was purportedly issued by the Office of the Secretary to the Government of the Federation.
It was referenced OSGF/MIN/59310/11/205 and signed by the Permanent Secretary, Political and Economic Affairs Office, Nadungu Gagare.
The letter, addressed to “Hon. George Buchi Nwabueze, National Coordinator, Made in Nigeria Project Office, OSGF, Three Arms Zone, Abuja,” conveyed the approval of his appointment as National Coordinator/Executive Director of the Made in Nigeria Project Office under the OSGF.
According to the document, the appointment was for a five-year tenure beginning from July 2025 and was renewable.
“I am directed to formally convey the approval of your appointment as National Coordinator/Executive Director of the Made in Nigeria Project Office under the Office of the Secretary to the Government of the Federation,” the letter stated.
It added that the appointment followed “a careful evaluation of your commitment, contribution, and capacity in delivering on the mandate of the Special Project Office.”
The document listed Nwabueze’s responsibilities to include the supervision and development of programmes, projects and policies; supervision of regional and state coordinators across the 36 states; and organisation of exhibitions, trade expos, economic summits and other promotional initiatives aimed at promoting indigenous products and services.
It further stated that the project was to operate temporarily from Room B53, Ground Floor, within the OSGF complex.
“Please note that this appointment is at the pleasure of the Secretary to the Government of the Federation, and in line with the objectives of the Made in Nigeria initiative under the Renewed Hope Agenda,” the letter said.
Efforts to engage Nwabueze further on the matter proved abortive as he declined response.
Special status request
Also, another document shared on Saturday on Linkedin by Nwabueze showed that his office sought to be granted the status of a Special Project.
The document, dated April 17, 2025, was signed by the Permanent Secretary, Political and Economic Affairs Office, Gagare, and addressed to the Secretary to the Government of the Federation.
It was referenced PS-PEAO/2025/008/4.
The document, titled, ‘A proposal for the Made-in-Nigeria Project to be granted Special Project status’, stated that the initiative had been operating for about five years and had promoted Nigerian-made products and services locally and internationally.
It claimed that the project had organised economic forums and trade exhibitions in several parts of the world and contributed positively to the Nigerian economy, particularly in the area of foreign direct investment.
The document listed increased employment opportunities, economic growth and poverty reduction among the expected benefits of granting the project special status.
According to the proposal, the initiative would also contribute to Gross Domestic Product growth by supporting local industries and encouraging domestic production.
It further stated that the project would reduce importation by encouraging Nigerians to consume locally made products, thereby reducing dependence on imported goods, conserving foreign exchange and improving the country’s trade balance.
The document added that the initiative aligned with the Federal Government’s efforts to diversify the economy, reduce dependence on crude oil and promote the non-oil sector.
The Permanent Secretary subsequently invited the SGF to note that granting the project special status would enhance its credibility and performance and enable it to meet its mandate and responsibilities.
However, the proposal made clear that the activities of the project were to be reviewed and operational modalities developed.
A fake agency?
The ICPC chairman, Dr Musa Aliyu, SAN, had identified the National Brands Development and Made-in-Nigeria Special Project Office as one of the outfits uncovered during the commission’s investigation into the alleged fictitious Presidential Foreign Intervention Promotion Council.
Aliyu, while briefing State House correspondents in Abuja, said investigators discovered the office while probing the PFIPC and what he described as procedural weaknesses within the public service.
According to him, the office had been allocated space within the OSGF premises without presidential authorisation.
He identified the promoter of the outfit as Prince George Buchi Nwabueze, alleging that he operated under different variations of his name and had the backing of some senior public servants in the OSGF.
The ICPC had described the outfit as part of the structures uncovered during its investigation into the alleged PFIPC.
However, documents released by Nwabueze appear intended to challenge the allegation that the project office had no official backing.
One of the reports shared on the LinkedIn page of the organisation documented a stakeholders’ engagement in Nasarawa State involving Governor Abdullahi Sule.
In the report, the governor was heard saying the state had domesticated the Federal Government’s Made-in-Nigeria initiative and captured it in its 2026 budget.
“For us in Nasarawa State, we have since domesticated this initiative of the Federal Government in our solemn commitment to promote local contents and have value for resources abound in our dear state,” Sule was quoted as saying.
“I’m happy to inform you that we did not only domesticate this project, but we also accord special attention to its operationalisation by including it in our 2026 budget,” he added.
The report also quoted the National Coordinator of the Made in Nigeria Project as saying the initiative was domiciled in the OSGF and was responsible for promoting the national brand.
Nwabueze was further heard saying the decision had been taken to locate a National Brand Processing and Packaging Centre in Nasarawa State.
The organisation’s website also identified “Nwabueze George” as “Executive Director, National Coordinator,” linking the position to the person named in the ICPC investigation.
Checks on the organisation’s website showed a structure featuring national, zonal and state coordinators.
At the national level, the organisation listed Dr Bassey B. Unaowo as Special Assistant to the Permanent Secretary on Political and Economic Affairs in the OSGF, while Dr Hajara Njidda Amoni was listed as Director, National Administration.
The organisation also listed zonal directors and coordinators across several states.
It maintained social media accounts on platforms including Instagram, Facebook, X and LinkedIn under the handle “@pmainpro.”
Office shut for months, says OSGF official
However, a staff member of the OSGF told Sunday PUNCH that the office had been shut for months.
“It was not operating as an agency but I know was under investigation… The office was shut months ago,” the source said.
The development leaves questions over the status of the project office, particularly the conflicting claims over its authorisation and relationship with the OSGF.
While the ICPC maintains that the office was illegally allocated space within the OSGF without presidential authorisation, documents released by Nwabueze show an appointment letter purportedly issued by the OSGF formally appointing him to head the project office.
The OSGF spokesman, Christopher Ugwuegbulam, when contacted, asked our correspondent to write a letter to his office before a response could be obtained.
Efforts to reach the ICPC spokesman, John Odey, proved abortive as of the time of filing the report, as calls to his number indicated that it was not reachable.
Sunday PUNCH gathered that the police had yet to be officially briefed about the suspect.
Credible sources in the police force told our correspondent that a manhunt would only be launched after a formal briefing on the matter. (Sunday PUNCH)
Details have emerged on how the Anambra State government got involved with the fake federal agency domiciled in the office of the Secretary to the Government of the Federation, SGF.
The agency was said to be planning to organize a Made in Nigeria fair in the state after the Secretary to the State Government, SSG, Mrs Chiamaka Nnake, was made the focal person for Anambra State.
However, following the discovery by the ICPC that the agency is fake, the Anambra SSG lamented that the agency tricked the state government into hosting its maiden Made in Nigeria fair in Anambra in December.
In a statement titled, ‘CLARIFICATION ON THE “MADE-IN-NIGERIA AGENCY AND MY ROLE AS STATE FOCAL PERSON, Nnake said: “I wish to clarify the circumstances surrounding the trending news concerning the purported “Made-in-Nigeria Agency,” in which my photograph has been displayed and I have been identified as one of the state coordinators.
“In January 2026, the Governor received a letter from the Made-in-Nigeria Office, said to be under the Office of the Secretary to the Government of the Federation, requesting the nomination of a State Focal Person. In response, the Governor, in February 2026, nominated me as the State Focal Person for Anambra State.
“Following the nominations, Focal Persons from the 36 states have been in a WhatsApp group engaging on issues relating to the activities of the office.
“More recently, the same office wrote to the State requesting that Anambra host the South East Made-in-Nigeria Fair. The request was approved, and an inaugural meeting was held about two weeks ago, with the National Coordinator in attendance.
“Since then, the State Committee has been working on preparations for the Fair, which is scheduled to take place from 2nd – 5th December 2026.
“Beyond these official interactions and engagements, I have no knowledge of, involvement in, or connection with any other activities, claims, or developments attributed to the said office.
“I therefore wish to make it clear that anything beyond the above-mentioned official interactions is entirely outside my knowledge and involvement”.
Presidential candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Atiku Abubakar, has reacted to the United States Federal Bureau of Investigation’s refusal to publicly release certain records relating to President Bola Tinubu, arguing that citing “danger to lives” cannot justify withholding potentially disclosable information from public scrutiny.
The FBI had filed a motion seeking permission to submit ex parte and in camera declarations explaining why it withheld some investigative records concerning allegations of drug trafficking involving Tinubu.
In an application dated August 20, the agency told the US District Court for the District of Columbia that it could not publicly disclose all the reasons for withholding certain records, hence its request to make the declarations privately before the court.
Reacting in a statement issued on Saturday in Abuja by his Senior Special Assistant on Public Communication, Phrank Shaibu, Atiku questioned the FBI’s justification for secrecy, arguing that Nigerians were already bearing the consequences of the government’s economic policies.
“The FBI says disclosure could endanger lives. Which lives? Nigerians are already dying,” he said.
Atiku linked the hardship to the removal of fuel subsidy, arguing that the policy had triggered increases in transportation costs, food prices and production expenses while putting pressure on jobs and household incomes.
“Fuel affects transportation. Transportation affects food prices. Energy affects production. Production affects jobs. All of them determine whether an ordinary Nigerian family can survive until the end of the month,” he said.
The former Vice President also reiterated his pledge to reverse the fuel subsidy removal if elected, describing his proposed approach as one that would be accountable and protected against abuse.
On the FBI records, Atiku said he was not demanding the release of sensitive information that could compromise investigations, including the identities of undercover agents, confidential sources or investigative techniques.
“Protect your agents. Protect your sources. Protect legitimate investigative methods. Redact whatever American law genuinely requires you to redact. But do not stretch those protections until they become a bulletproof vest for Tinubu,” he said.
Atiku described his position as a democratic appeal rather than an attempt to interfere in Nigeria’s internal affairs, insisting that Nigerians had a right to know the background and character of the person leading the country. (Saturday Tribune)
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