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How Nigeria can curb Naira fall, soaring unemployment – Analysts
Analysts have advised the fiscal, monetary policy authorities to calibrate reform policies aimed at tightening of financial conditions in Nigeria.
They said the development will be enough to push inflation down to target levels relatively quickly as well as reversing current high unemployment rate in the country.
They also advised that policymakers should heed the lessons of the past and be resolute to avoid potentially more painful and disruptive adjustments later.
Their suggestion follows the uncertain outlook and persistent current account deficit in Nigeria.
They advocated the need for the Federal Government to prioritise greater investment in physical capital, education, and social safety nets, as well as more support for retraining and re-allocating workers to new and better jobs that will lead to the transformation of the economy to make it smarter, greener, and more resilient and inclusive.
They observed that the critical point for the domestic economy is the disequilibrium in the foreign exchange market which has starved businesses of dollars and pushed consumer prices higher, adding that the dollar crunch in the economy is due to the lack of clarity around Nigeria’s foreign exchange policy and investors’ aversion to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s demand-management strategies.
They expressed fears that further devaluation of the nation’s currency might not be necessary on the strength of the pressure on the Naira is due to speculative attacks and much of the concern for investors lies with the uncertainty around foreign exchange policy, according to
They advised the Federal Government to strengthen the credibility of fiscal policy to create room for further support in the short term without jeopardising public credit, adding that emergency spending needs to be accompanied by measures that ensure transparency and accountability.
The international monetary Fund (IMF) recently said that Central banks in major economies expected as recently as a few months ago that they could tighten monetary policy very gradually.
Inflation seemed to be driven by an unusual mix of supply shocks associated with the pandemic and later Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and it was expected to decline rapidly once these pressures eased.
Now, with inflation climbing to multi-decade highs and price pressures broadening to housing and other services, central banks recognise the need to move more urgently to avoid an unmooring of inflation expectations and damaging their credibility.
The Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada, and Bank of England have already raised interest rates markedly and have signaled they expect to continue with more sizable hikes this year.
The European Central Bank recently lifted rates for the first time in more than a decade.
Central bank actions and communications about the likely path of policy have led to a significant rise in real (that is, inflation-adjusted) interest rates on government debt since the start of the year.
While short-term real rates are still negative, the real rate forward curve in the United States—that is, the path of one-year-ahead real interest rates one to 10 years out implied by market prices—has risen across the curve to a range between 0.5 and 1 percent. This path is roughly consistent with a “neutral” expand around its potential rate. real policy stance that allows output to
The Fed’s summary of economic projections in mid-June suggested a real neutral rate of around 0.5 percent, and policymakers saw a 1.7 percent output expansion both this year and next, which is very close to estimates of potential. The real rate forward curve in the euro area, proxied by German bunds, has also shifted up, though remains deeply negative. That’s consistent with real rates converging only gradually to neutral.
The higher real interest rates on government bonds have spurred an even larger rise in borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, and contributed to sharp declines in equity prices globally.
The modal view of both central banks and markets seems to be that this tightening of financial conditions will be enough to push inflation down to target levels relatively quickly.
The monetary and fiscal tightening in train should cool demand both for energy and non-energy goods, especially in interest-sensitive categories like consumer durables. This should cause goods prices to rise at a slower pace or even fall, and may also push energy prices lower in the absence of additional disruptions in commodity markets.
Supply-side pressures should ease as the pandemic relaxes its grip and lockdowns and production disruptions become less frequent.
Slower economic growth should eventually push down service-sector inflation and restrain wage growth.
But, the magnitude of the inflation surge has been a surprise to central banks and markets, and there remains substantial uncertainty about the outlook for inflation.
It is possible that inflation comes down more quickly than central banks envision, especially if supply chain disruptions ease and global policy tightening results in fast declines in energy and goods prices.
Even so, inflation risks appear strongly tilted to the upside. There is a substantial risk that high inflation becomes entrenched, and inflation expectations de-anchor.
Inflation rates in services—for everything from housing rents to personal services—appear to be picking up from already elevated levels, and they are unlikely to come down quickly.
These pressures may be reinforced by rapid nominal wage growth. In countries with strong labor markets, nominal wages could start rising rapidly, faster than what firms reasonably could absorb, with the associated increase in unit labor costs passed into prices. Such “second round effects” would translate into more persistent inflation and rising inflation expectations.
Dr Muda Yusuf, Founder/CEO Centre for the Promotion Of Private Enterprise (CPPE) , in an exclusive interview with Daily Independent, said the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) report by the NBS indicated that Nigeria still has a structural problem, inhibiting both production and exports potential.
He expressed optimistism that there is room for improvement in the provision and maintenance of infrastructure, investment productivity, and boosting of local business activities to support export activities and strengthen channels for dollar inflow.
He said: “There is need to reduce the level of debt financing especially the reliance on commercial debt to fund government operations. Public debt is already at an unsustainable threshold. Steps should be taken to attract foreign exchange through a strategy of ensuring new investment opportunities to stimulate foreign capital inflows into the economy.
“We should be seeking more equity capital than debt capital. There is urgent need to review the country’s trade policy to support investment growth and investment sustainability. tax policy must support investment not become a disincentive to investment”.
Mr. Taiwo Oyedele, fiscal policy partner and Africa tax leader, PwC in a chat with DAILY INDEPENDENT, advocated the need for institutional reforms that are necessary to ensure that the regulatory institutions have better disposition to support the growth of investment and focus less on the generation of revenue and boost employment opportunities for the youths
He warned that the continuous introduction of new taxes without considering the poor may create a social problem for the Nigerian government.
Speaking against the backdrop of the recently announced 5% excise duty on telecommunications services, Oyedele said the tax system in Nigeria lacks intentionality as it creates no room for the protection of the poor and vulnerable.
According to him, an additional 5% tax on telecoms services will bring the total consumption tax on data and voice calls to 12.5%, when VAT is added. This, he said, will add extra burden on poor Nigerians who use telecommunications services, which have become essential needs for all.
Emphasising the importance of call and data services to every Nigerian, Oyedele noted that if Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs theory were to be developed today, telecom airtime and data could have been properly classified along with food and shelter as physiological needs hence the need to ensure that government is not excessively taxing basic needs.
Mr. Friday Udo, South-South Coordinator of Institute of Chartered Economists of Nigeria (ICEN), told Daily Independent that there is need for urgent steps to be taken to ensure a better macroeconomic management framework to stabilise the exchange rate, eradicate the challenge of liquidity in the foreign exchange market and to stem the current depreciation of the Naira.
Calling for business friendly reforms and policies that will restore confidence, improve the regulatory environment and address insecurity, Udoh said: “there is need for not only competitive returns, but also investors’ confidence and an enabling environment of which clear and robust policies, good infrastructure and business friendly regulations are a major component”.
“Concomitantly, unemployment in any economy is connected to short demand at the same time this affects consumption which means that little money would be available for businesses to expand their production line. At the same time little money will be available for saving which businesses would have accessed as loan”.
Oyinkan Olasanoye, the National President, Association of Senior Staff of Banks, Insurance and other Financial Institutions (ASSBIFI), told our correspondent that Federal Government should lay emphasis on reforms that will simplify complex regulation and processes, and eliminating the hurdles that stand in the way of a bigger and more productive private sector.
She said: “Significant reforms across the labour market, business environment and fiscal management will be required. A skilled workforce is critical to improving Nigeria’s productivity and efficiency to boost revenue generation for the government.
“Considering the services sector is projected to be the key drivers of the Nigerian economy going forward, measures have to be implemented to improve the value-added of labour in this sector. A comprehensive approach is needed; sound and quality education provides a solid foundation to develop the relevant skills for the workplace. In addition, collaboration among all stakeholders to design and implement education and training tailored to market needs is necessary.”
An executive director of a new generation bank in Nigeria, who craves anonymity, said Nigeria’s low revenue generation has been a very serious challenge for past and present Administration, and therefore, called for the review of the medium-term fiscal frameworks that can reassure lenders that governments are fiscally responsible and lower financing costs.
The banker argued that: “Although the international community has provided critical support so far to help alleviate fiscal vulnerabilities in low-income countries, more is needed. (Daily Independent)
The Yenagoa Division of the Federal High Court on Friday dismissed a suit challenging the divestment of Shell from onshore assets.
The suit filed by King Bubaraiye Dakolo, traditional ruler of Ekpetiama in Yenagoa Local Government Area of Bayelsa also sought redress and remediation of cumulative pollution of Dakolo’s domain for 40 years.
Dakolo alleged that the divestment by Shell did not follow the stipulated guidelines in the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021.
However, presiding judge, Justice Ayo Emmanuel in a ruling dismissed the case for being filed out of time adding that under the statute, any objections to divestment on guy to be filed within three months.
Emmanuel also held that the traditional ruler lacked the ‘locus standi’ to institute the case as he had no role in the divestment.
The judge further stated that the plaintiff failed to explore and exhaust the conflict resolution mechanism mechanisms by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission,
The judge noted that the failure according to the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA)asked the suit invalid.
“Plaintiff’s failure to satisfy the mandatory statutory conditions precedent under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) strips this Court of jurisdiction.
“The Plaintiff further contended that the injuries complained of constitute a “continuing injury, thereby creating a continuous cause of action that escapes the limitation periods.
“However, looking closely at the pleadings, the Plaintiff joins historical grievances stretching back decades with specific events that allegedly took place around 2024. A continuous injury means a recurrence of the legally wrongful act itself, not the continuous persistence of the injurious effects of a singular past act.
“From the facts presented, the alleged causes of action against the public officers (the 4th, 5th, and 6th Defendants) arose well outside the mandated 3-month period prescribed by POPA.
“Furthermore, the claims touching on tortious liability are caught by the 5-year limitation threshold under Section 16 of the Limitation Law of Bayelsa State,” Emmanuel ruled.
Reacting, Counsel to the Minister of Petroleum Resources, Lawrence Edet who spoke for the defendants thanked the court for dispensing justice to their favour.
Counsel to Dakolo said that they will pursue the case beyond the trial court and will be heading to the court of appeal.
Environmental justice group, Social Action in its reaction to the judgement expressed regret that the court had to ignore the quest for environmental justice and technicalities.
Dr Prince Edegbuo
Resource Justice Manager at Social Action said: “It is very very unfortunate that a matter as important as this that is gaining international traction in home countries where these international companies come from and the activities being condemned but our legal system finds it convenient to discard a case that has caused so much hardship and suffering on the people.
“The pollution had devastated the environment and denied people of their livelihoods and even affected the reproductive health of the people, it is heartbreaking that the Federal High Court struck out this case.
“We will meet at the Appeal Court, we will not relent, we shall continue to support the Ekpetiama people in this litigation, this is just the court of first instance,” he said.
Ekpetiama community is in the neighbourhood and part of host communities to the Gbarain-Ubie gas plant and Gbarain oilfields.
Listed as defendants in the suit No. FHC/YNG/CS/81/2025, are Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria, Shell Petroleum N.V, Shell UK PLC.
Others are Attorney General of the Federation, The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, Minister of Petroleum Resources and Renaissance Energy Africa Ltd.
It will be recalled that Renaissance Energy Africa, a consortium of indigenous oil firms in March 2025 acquired the onshore and shallow waters oil and gas assets hitherto operated by SPDC, following the divestments by Shell UK PLC, the parent company to SPDC.
•Says illegal goods on Dangote trucks to be confiscated
Dangote Industries Limited has intensified efforts to combat illegal haulage activities involving its trucks by unveiling a public whistleblowing initiative that offers a cash reward to individuals who provide credible information leading to the arrest of offenders or the interception of unauthorized goods and transportation of persons.
The company said the initiative, which will reward whistleblowers with N500,000.00 cash award, forms part of its broader commitment to protect the integrity of its logistics operations and eliminate the activities of unscrupulous individuals who illegally use Dangote-branded trucks to transport unauthorized goods.
In a statement issued in Lagos, the management urged members of the public to support the campaign by reporting any suspected cases of illegal haulage involving Dangote trucks, stressing that only specifically approved products are permitted to be transported by vehicles belonging to its various subsidiaries.
Dangote trucks
According to the company, Dangote Cement trucks are authorized to carry only cement, limestone, high-grade gypsum, coal and clinker, while Dangote Sugar Refinery trucks are restricted to the transportation of sugar products. Trucks belonging to NASCON Allied Industries are expected to carry Dangote Salt and DanQ Seasoning products, while Dangote Packaging vehicles are designated for bags and packaging materials.
Similarly, trucks operated by Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals are permitted to transport polypropylene products, while Dangote Fertiliser Limited vehicles are authorized for the haulage of urea fertilizer.
The company warned that any Dangote truck found transporting unauthorized goods would be treated as being involved in illegal haulage activities, adding that both the drivers and owners of such goods risk arrest, confiscation of the cargo and prosecution under applicable laws.
“Anyone with verifiable information that leads to the arrest of persons involved in illegal haulage activities or the recovery of unauthorized goods transported on Dangote trucks will receive a cash reward of Five Hundred Thousand Naira,” the company stated.
To aid investigations and enforcement efforts, the management of Dangote Group advised whistleblowers to provide detailed information when making reports. These include the truck type, registration plate number, cab number, location of the vehicle, description of the goods being transported, colour of the truck and photographs of the vehicle and cargo where possible.
The company has therefore established dedicated hotlines across its operations to receive reports relating to illegal haulage activities. Members of the public can report incidents involving trucks operating from the Obajana, Okpella and Gboko plants through certain dedicated telephone lines.
The Company stated that law enforcement agencies, including the Police, have been authorized to arrest any driver found using company trucks for unauthorized commercial haulage.
It reiterated its zero-tolerance stance against logistics-related fraud and called on the public to join hands with it in safeguarding legitimate business activities by exposing illegal operators.
Dangote Group emphasized that the initiative is designed not only to protect company assets and operations but also to strengthen transparency, accountability and compliance across its nationwide logistics network.
“Public cooperation remains critical in our efforts to eradicate illegal haulage activities. We encourage anyone with credible information to come forward and help us maintain the integrity of our transportation system,” the statement added.
The company reaffirmed that all reports would support ongoing efforts to protect the Dangote brand, promote lawful business practices and ensure that offenders are brought to justice.i
Fresh controversy has erupted over efforts to revive the sale of a 40 per cent stake in the Amukpe–Escravos Pipeline, with a governance expert warning that any attempt to resurrect a previously terminated transaction could damage investor confidence and raise fresh questions about transparency in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.
Speaking on Channels Television on Thursday, June 11, 2026, Managing Director of Policy Management Consult Services, Jide Olatuyi, said concerns surrounding the transaction extend beyond commercial interests and strike at the heart of governance, transparency, and the credibility of Nigeria’s investment environment.
“The contract was terminated,” Olatuyi said. “What stakeholders are saying is that there is a need for a new competitive bidding process rather than attempting to revive a failed transaction.”
The controversy has intensified amid scrutiny of the asset’s valuation. The earlier transaction involving the 40 per cent stake was priced at approximately $243 million before collapsing over unmet contractual obligations. Independent assessments conducted in 2025 reportedly valued the same stake at between $544 million and $641 million.
The significant disparity between the earlier transaction price and the more recent valuations has fuelled calls for a fresh competitive bidding exercise to ensure that the asset reflects prevailing market conditions and delivers maximum value.
Rejecting suggestions that opposition to the proposed transaction is driven by sentiment or commercial rivalry, Olatuyi insisted that the debate centres on governance standards within the petroleum industry.
“I don’t think it is about sentiment at all,” he said. “It is about governance in the oil and gas sector.”
According to him, Nigeria’s challenge is no longer limited to attracting investors but also ensuring that investors have confidence in the integrity of the country’s commercial and regulatory processes.
“If you are not committed to transparency, it becomes a problem for investors,” he said. “If you cannot build trust and confidence in the sector, capital will go elsewhere.”
Olatuyi said several stakeholders, including project lenders such as Sterling Bank and AMCON, have advocated a transparent process that reflects current market realities and updated asset valuations.
The Amukpe–Escravos Pipeline, which has a transportation capacity of about 160,000 barrels per day and has maintained uptime above 95 per cent, remains one of Nigeria’s most strategic crude evacuation assets. The pipeline plays a critical role in transporting crude from inland production fields to export terminals in the Niger Delta.
Olatuyi urged authorities to ensure that any future transaction involving the asset is conducted through an open, transparent, and competitive process capable of inspiring investor confidence and safeguarding public value.
The debate comes at a time when the Federal Government is seeking to attract substantial investment into the energy sector and expand critical oil and gas infrastructure.
The eventual outcome of the Amukpe–Escravos Pipeline transaction could serve as a major test of Nigeria’s commitment to transparency, valuation discipline, and investor protection. As global competition for energy capital intensifies, governance standards may prove just as important as resource endowment in determining where investment flows.
Officials of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission and members of the technical committee that supervised the original transaction did not respond to requests for comment as of press time.
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